Welcome back to Forum Buzz, where I peruse the DobberHockey Forums and weigh in on active, heavily debated, or otherwise relevant recent threads, reminding folks just how great a resource the Forums are. Nearly anything might be covered here, other than trades and signings, which usually get their own separate write-ups on the main site and are also normally covered in the next day’s Ramblings, or questions that are specific to salary cap issues, which is the domain of the weekly Capped column. To access the specific forum thread on which a question is based, click on the “Topic” for that question.

As is now becoming tradition, I'll start the column with a nod to the sadly now dormant "Who am I?" thread in the Forums where someone thought of a real life hockey player or persona, who can be from the past or present, male or female, in the NHL or not, and they give clues to help people guess who it is. You get to enter one guess per clue, and if you guess correctly you think of the next player, so it just keeps going indefinitely. For your enjoyment, here is a "Who am I?" sample. See how many clues it takes for you to guess who I am.

CLUE #1 – I'm a retired US-born forward 

CLUE #2 – Although American, I played junior hockey in the WHL, where I provided a glimpse of what would become my hallmark of scoring and grit

CLUE #3 – In nearly every NHL season, my PIM total was more than double my point total 

CLUE #4 – But I definitely wasn't a "goon," as I produced at a 50+ point rate in nearly every one of my NHL seasons

CLUE #5 – I represented the USA in international competition six times, winning gold once at the World Championships and silver once at the Olympics

CLUE #6 – I played for some very good teams, as in more than half my seasons my team played at least 13 playoff games

CLUE #7 – I won the Stanley Cup once on my first team, and my second team I made it to the finals, only to lose to my first team

CLUE #8 – Despite a 67 point collective scoring pace in what would be my final two NHL seasons, I was out of the NHL before age 30 due to concussions

CLUE #9 – I was traded from my first team to my second team in a deal that also featured a player – coming from the other team – who'd become not only a future NHL Fall of Famer but also an NHL General Manager

CLUE #10 – I was drafted in the 1990s

CLUE #11 – The teams I played for, in order, were the Avs (including, very briefly, when they were the Nordiques) and the Kings

CLUE #12 – My initials are A.D.

So, who am I? Hopefully you figured it out. Check the end of the column to confirm, or, if not, to find out who I am. Now onto regularly scheduled Forum Buzz programming. 

Topic #1 – In a 10 Team Dynasty with starting line-ups of 4C, 4LW, 4RW, 6D, 2Util, 3G, and categories of G(4 for forwards, 5 for defensemen), A(3 for forwards, 4 for defensemen), HIT(0.5), SOG(0.5), BLK(0.5), TK(0.5), a GM has the roster set forth below.They have been offered Ryan Leonard for Mason McTavish. From a long term perspective, would it make sense for them to do the trade, or hold McTavish?

C – Jack Eichel, Adam Fantilli, Joel Eriksson-Ek, Dylan Strome, Mason McTavish, Matty Beniers, Boone Jenner, Tyler Seguin
RW – Kirill Marchenko, Travis Konecny, Adrian Kempe, Drake Batherson, Luke Evangelista, Andre Burakovsky
LW – Jason Robertson, Brady Tkachuk, Morgan Geekie, Filip Forsberg, Andrei Svechnikov, Owen Tippett, Pavel Buchnevich
D – Moritz Seider, Noah Dobson, Alexander Nikishin, MacKenzie Weegar, Darnell Nurse, Dougie Hamilton, Drew Doughty, Neil Pionk, Gustav Forsling
G – Igor Shesterkin, Ilya Sorokin, Jordan Binnington, Jet Greaves
Minors – Axel Sandin-Pellikka, Beckett Sennecke, Marco Kasper, Igor Chernyshov, Jason Dickinson, Matt Savoie, Daniil But, William Horcoff, Bradley Nadeau, Ville Koivunen, Nick Lardis, Oliver Bonk, Scott Morrow, Radim Mrtka, David Reinbacher, Dmitri Simashev, David Jiricek, Luca Cagnoni, Sergei Murashov

It is interesting that thus far McTavish has not thrived despite Anaheim having improved so much offensively (now eighth best in goals per game, up from third-worst last season), especially considering that the trade of Trevor Zegras was supposed to pave the way for McTavish to become more of a focal point. Yet instead, his TOI has dropped with all the lost time being on the power play, which makes a bad situation worse. He is also shooting less in terms of volume, without an uptick in SH%. That is a double whammy and not what one wants to see, especially with an OZ% of 56.6%, which would easily mark a career best. His scoring has barely fallen though, and his IPPs are in line with past seasons. The team is also shooting 9.9% with him on the ice, which is quite decent. Beyond that, a mere six of his 17 assists have been secondary, which is far too low, and his PDO is well under 1000. In all, the picture is painted of a player who should remain a top-six fixture, but who is unlikely to make big strides unless installed on PP1, or, given his size, until he gets closer to game 400 of his career.

Leonard started with only eight points in 19 games, meaning since then he has been a point per game player. What's most impressive about that is him doing so despite an average TOI per game that is barely over 14:00, although it has been ticking upward of late, especially in terms of PP time, where he has been on PP1 more than not. When looking at points per 60 minutes, Leonard's rate is better than the likes of Tim Stutzle, Matthew Knies, Travis Konecny, Will Smith, Clayton Keller, Alex Ovechkin, and Dylan Larkin, to name just a few. Leonard's SOG rate and SH% are both reasonable, and he's producing this well despite an OZ% of just 42.6%, showing he is not at all being sheltered like many rookies whose OZ%s are in the upper 50s and even in the 60s. Looking at his most common linemates, they definitely do not include the best of the best on the Caps, making his achievements of late all the more impressive. Not surprisingly, his IPPs are great, at 70%+ both overall and on the PP. A 12.1% team SH% at 5×5 is high when factoring in his OZ%; but of his 18 assists only five have been secondary, for a rate lower than McTavish's. This paints the picture of a player who drives offense and finds a way to factor into the scoring, even when faced with the headwind of a low OZ%.

In sum, I think McTavish has a chance to climb into the 60s for scoring rate; however, Leonard is doing better despite worse deployment and has amazing metrics. I'd 100% make this trade.

Topic #2 – Who figures to be the best over the next five years in a points only keeper: Wyatt Johnston, Adam Fantilli, or Dylan Guenther?

The biggest question mark among the three is Fantilli. He's pacing for a similar scoring rate as last season despite an increase in TOI, especially on the PP. And PP scoring is what makes Fantilli's 2024-25 output so unique, as he managed to tally 32 goals with only two coming on the PP and taking only 2.3 SOG per game, plus a total of just four PPPts. Are there any player comparables for that feat? Not really, as there are only three other forwards who – dating back to 2000-01 – scored 30+ goals in one of their first two seasons by age 20 despite averaging less than 2.5 SOG per game: Anze Kopitar, Jonathan Toews, and Sean Monahan. But each of them had a double digit PPG total. Out of 750+ instances of a forward scoring 30+ goals since 2000-01, four had as few or fewer PPPts as Fantilli, but all of them were both older and had more NHL experience. It's a similar story in looking at those who had two or fewer PPGs. Seemingly he is a unicorn as far as player comparisons.

It is definitely a concern that he is getting more PP time, yet his IPP on the PP actually dropping from 50.0% last season to only 33.3% this season. He's not producing better despite a rise in OZ% from 59.5% to 67.9%. His overall IPP is down as well, while his secondary assist rate is on a par with last season. He is shooting more, averaging 2.7 SOG per game versus 2.3, but his SH% has fallen to an extent that there is not a resulting benefit. Although he is not set to hit his breakout threshold until toward the end of the season, him not making any strides thus far is a bit of a concern. It seems like lofty expectations for Fantilli might need to be tempered; and in view of what he's done thus far, he likely is not the right choice among these three. The added uncertainty of a new coach brings an extra wrinkle to to table as well.

Is the correct pick Johnston or Guenther? What's impressive about Guenther is his scoring rate is steady despite a big drop in PPPt pace. He too is shooting more; but in his case, it's led to a SH% gain, which is encouraging. But he's yet to see gains in TOI overall or on the PP, which on the one hand is a concern in that it could put a ceiling on his production, yet on the other it can only get better from here. He also has been able to nearly maintain his scoring rate even though his OZ% has fallen from 65.7% to 50.5%, showing he can score without being sheltered. Also, his overall IPP is up, and now above the very key 70% mark I associate with players who have star potential. Beyond that, somehow just two of his 16 assists have been secondary, which is an astonishingly low number. It would not shock me for Guenther to score at a considerably higher rate over the rest of the season, and that if he somehow finishes this season below a point per game pace for it to be the last time that occurs.

Johnston is thriving, having added over a full minute of TOI. His SOG rate is tracking to be the same as last season though, and his SH% is 11.2%%, which is quite high. Beyond that, it took him a mere 38 games to reach 23 PPPts, whereas last season he finished with 25 in 82 games. But his team SH% at 5×5 is fine, as is his secondary assist rate, and his IPPs are solid. The collective takeaway is Johnston is a driver of offense and finds a way to factor into scoring. But he is not likely to see much, if any, gains in TOI or PP TOI in the normal course, and his SH% is due to come back to earth. As such, he's likely more of an 85-90 point guy than the 95 point player he is now.

For certain Johnston has the higher floor, based not only on what he's done but also the team for which he plays. Guenther though has room for organic gains, plus he's a year younger and on the cusp of hitting his 200-game breakout threshold. In cases like these, I prefer the safer bet, which is Johnston; however, Guenther has home run potential, so I could defend him as being the choice, especially for teams which already have a number of reliable producers.

Topic #3 – For the remainder of the 2025-26 season, who should score the most points: Seth Jarvis, Mats Zuccarello, or Roope Hintz?

Let's start with Zuccarello. He's missed a chunk of time due to injury, which is not great except that in 12 seasons since becoming an NHL regular he's never had an instance of more than one 10+ game absence in the same season. Past results do not dictate future outcomes; but the fact he already got hurt provides some consolation. He also is still firmly entrenched on what is now arguably among the best PP1s in the league with the addition of Quinn Hughes. He also remains tethered to Kirill Kaprizov, which is superb gig. 

While Zuccarello's TOI is well down, his OZ% is markedly up, which is a nice consolation. But his overall IPP is atypically high, as is his 5×5 team SH%, which is all the more interesting since his personal SH% is a good bit lower than his norm despite him shooting less than he has in quite a while. Collectively this paints a picture of Zuccarello likely producing at a 75-80 point pace over the remainder of 2025-26.

As for Hintz, unlike several Dallas forwards he's seen only a modest a rise in TOI, although he is now on a PP1 that is a true PP1, with all forwards out there for at least two-thirds of all PP minutes, which explains his PP scoring rate on pace to easily be a career high. Still though, his overall production is not any better than it's been in recent seasons. Why not? His SOG rate and SH% are fine, but his overall IPP is under 50%. That's likely due to the presence of Mikko Rantanen, the emergence of Wyatt Johnston, and the resurgence of Miro Heiskanen. It has nowhere to go but up; however, his team SH% at 5x 5 is 12.8%, which is more like to fall than rise. His secondary assist rate is a bit low, but not glaringly. When all is said and done, he likely will produce comparable to Zuccarello or perhaps a bit lower, although he does not have the same injury risk and is a decade younger, so he might be the "safer" pick of the two.

What of Jarvis? Like Zuccarello, he has mainly been playing on the top line, but he has also been shuffled down the lineup since returning from a short injury absence. Additionally, with all due respect to Sebastian Aho, he's no Kaprizov. Jarvis is shooting more than ever, yet his SH% is right in his usual range. Where he's falling short is in PP scoring, with a mere five PPPts due to a PP IPP of 33.3%. Of course that is unsustainably low; however, Jarvis has only once had a better than 50% PP IPP, so it's unrealistic to expect it to skyrocket. Still, it has to rise, and, with that, his scoring. His 5×5 team SH% is low, especially given a 65.5% OZ%, which is quite high but seemingly his new normal. For him to still be scoring at a current pace that is in the same vicinity of the other two is quite impressive, and makes him – to me – the best bet to put up the most points over the rest of the season.

Topic #4 – In a 12 team keeper with categories of G, A, +/-, SOG, PPG, GWG, PPA, HITS, W, GAA, SV%, SHO and starting line-ups of 3C, 3LW, 3RW, 4D, 2G, a GM has the following roster:
C – Leo Carlsson, Robert Thomas, Vincent Trocheck, Mason McTavish
LW –Juraj Slafkovsky, Matvei Michkov, Trevor Zegras, Valeri Nichushkin
RW – Ivan Demidov, Will Smith, J.T. Miller, Zach Hyman
D – Matthew Schaefer, Alexander Nikishin, Zeev Buium, Victor Hedman
G – Jeremy Swayman, Yaroslav Askarov, Brandon Bussi, Jacob Fowler
IR – Zayne Parekh, Connor Bedard

Should they trade Thomas and Zegras for Elias Pettersson and Brandon Hagel? In case it matters, Pettersson is center eligible like Thomas, while Hagel is LW eligible like Zegras.

This is an interesting team in that only one of its skaters is age 26-30, namely Thomas. The vast majority are younger, but there are also several who are well older. The range from 26-30 is generally seen as the sweet spot in terms of a skater's production. Even the goalies skew young. For what it's worth, three of the four players who would be involved in the trade are either age 26 or 27, while the other – Zegras – is nearly 25. Still, I think this team should be looking to unload some of its older players, poising it for years of success. Of course if it's not a true dynasty where all are kept, then that is a different story, as even if the older players are not among those kept chances are some younger players would need to be lost as well.

The position where the team has the highest percentage of older players is RW; however, none of those who'd be involved in the trade has eligibility at RW, so that is not a factor either. As such, I believe this is a trade which will boil down to whether what would be obtained in return would be assuredly better than what would be traded away.

I covered Zegras in my mailbag last week. What he's done this season has firmly (re)established him as a true top line player. He also has room to improve given his TOIs and lack of PP time as compared to other elite players. Thomas has taken a big step back this season, although we do need to remember that he had 45 points in his last 30 games in 2025-26; so he might just be a player who takes a while to hit his stride, kind of like how Kevin Fiala used to be. He too is a locked-in top liner but also could realistically see gains in TOI both overall and on the PP, especially since despite his slow start his IPPs are still superb.

EP40 remains tantalizing, yet is on pace to majorly disappoint once again. His struggles can no longer be blamed on J.T. Miller, both in terms of the locker room and hurting Pettersson with respect to deployment. In fact, his TOIs mirror those of his 102 point campaign in 2022-23, with the big difference though being SOG, as he's at 2.0 versus 3.2 in 22-23. His overall IPP is on pace to decrease for the third straight season, and his 5×5 team SH% is poised to be the second worst of his career. Low IPP and 5×5 team SH% is a bad combination, and cuts again him to rising to prior heights, as the talent may still be there, but seemingly the effort is not. A trade may spark him, but it's not clear that will happen given his cap hit, nor whether it would indeed matter.

Hagel started 2025-26 very slow, but has renormalized. His days on PP1 appear to be over, but considering he only had 11 PPTs all last season, and is on a similar pace for 2025-26, that might not be as bad is it would be for most, especially since somehow, despite it, his OZ% his risen from a very low 42.9% to 53.1%, which is for sure a net positive. His 5×5 team SH% is right in his normal range, and his secondary assist rate is low even for him. His IPPs are very high, although that likely is a result of no longer being on a line with Nikita Kucherov, and, when coupled with his team SH% and 5×5, suggest he not only drives offense but finds a way to factor into scoring. I can see him creeping upward to the same 90 point level as last season by the end of 2025-26.

As far as other categories beyond scoring, none of these guys are hitters, and only Hagel is a high volume shooter. Hagel also is a very plus player, whereas Thomas and Zegras tend to hover around even, and Pettersson has become a double digits minus player of late. Looking at this as a whole, Hagel likely has the highest floor, while Thomas and Zegras are doing well and could really thrive if they received more TOI. EP40 is an enigma, with sky high potential, but less likely to truly fulfill that potential again with each passing season. My usual rule is don't make a trade unless it is a clear win, which I can't say this would be. So I'd stand pat.

Topic #5 – In a 12 team keeper with defenseman scoring of Goals = 2 points (+1point if it's a PPG or GWG), Assists = 1 point, +/- =-1 point or +1 point, a GM can possibly acquire Thomas Harley or Mikhail Sergachev. Both would be a keeper, but who'd be better over the next three seasons?

One thing that is important to note is there are no major defenseman prospects for either team. What that means that even beyond how much they're paid, is it's unlikely either of them would be pushed down the depth chart within three years.

Sergachev is for certain Utah's "the guy" defenseman. That is great insofar as he is the PP1 QB and skates for roughly 25 minutes per game; but his OZ% is on pace to drop for a third straight season, and be below 50% for the first time in his career. While his "the guy" role has many benefits, that is not one of them. It also is not helping him in +/-, where he is poised to finish minus again, although at least he has not become more minus as his OZ% has shrank, which is a bit of a silver lining. And although his PP1 spot is seemingly cemented, he is not seeing gains in his PP scoring rate. But he's not doing poorly either, as his PP TOI ranks him eighth among defensemen, with his PPPt total ranking him ninth. It is possible though that as Utah continues to improve Sergachev sees a direct benefit.

In contrast, Harley plays for a team that is already quite good and high scoring. Although many felt he'd outplayed Miro Heiskanen enough to displace Heiskanen on PP1 and become more of a focal point, that has not happened, with Heiskanen remaining "the guy" for Dallas. The result is Harley getting PP scraps, hurting his production. Harley's IPPs still are better than last season, yet his secondary assist rate and team scoring at 5×5 are not low, nor is his OZ%, making it so he is not likely to see huge gains from his point per every other game scoring rate, perhaps topping out at a 50 point rate. Sure – Heiskanen could have another "off" season where Harley gets to be put into a position to succeed; however, much like Brent Seabrook when Chicago had Duncan Keith, or Kevin Shattenkirk when St. Louis had Alex Pietrangelo, it is not realistic to see him being able to take the reins from Heiskanen.

I thought this might be a tougher decision. But the choice is most definitely Sergachev.

Topic #6 – In a 10 Team, keep 8, points only cap league with 20 player rosters (12F, 6D, 2G), who is the best forward to own: Andrei Svechnikov, Quinton Byfield, Tomas Hertl, or Jared McCann?

If this is a keep-eight, that would mean – in theory – the player would need to be among the best 80 in the NHL given that there are ten teams. Although it was not made clear whether this team would want/need this player to be a keeper, I'll presume it is at least a possibility.

I'm ruling out Hertl at the outset. He's on a PP1 that sees heaps of PP time, but his TOI is not great and a pattern has emerged where he is not playing with the best of the best on Vegas, making it difficult to see him improving on his current scoring pace. It also does not help that his TOI is under 17:30 per game, and he's shooting more than he has ever in his career yet despite this it's not paying dividends. He is also the oldest of the four players. McCann missed a chunk of time but has hit his stride and is doing what he does, which is put up points despite low TOI. His SH% is high for him though, and he too is not skating at ES with top tier talent. Plus, although he too is on PP1, for Seattle that means taking the ice for not even 60% of its man advantage minutes. All things considered, McCann isn't much better than Hertl, and not the choice either.

That leaves Byfield and Svechnikov. Byfield is still a season away from his "big guy" 400-game breakout threshold; however, one would think he'd have shown some signs of improvement as it nears. Instead, he's faring worse, although in his defense his SH% is too low, and he tends to do better in the second half. And although it is also encouraging to see him above 20:00 per game in TOI, ample PP time has yet to materialize, yet his SH duty continues to climb. His team SH% at 5×5 is likewise too low at 7.0%, as is his secondary assist rate at 31.6%. Yet I'd feel a lot better if his IPPs were higher, as that would suggest he'll make major gains once his metrics renormalize. But he has not shown a nose for scoring this season, nor in the past, and that is definitely troublesome. Although past results are not necessarily indicative of the future, I do worry that virtually no centers as tall and heavy as him have been able to succeed, or even if they have they often encountered injury issues. There are enough seeds of doubt that Byfield likely is not the choice either.

Svechnikov's scoring rate is still worse than the 70-75 point rate it had been for several seasons, except when you consider he started 2025-26 with zero points in his first eight games, meaning he has produced at nearly a point per game rate ever since. While his SOG rate has not climbed to prior heights, it is on pace to be his best since when he was producing in the 70s. He's also doing this with what would be a career low SH%, and with essentially all his metrics, from team SH% at 5×5, secondary assist rate, OZ%, and IPPs, tracking with his norms. It might be that he is experiencing his "big guy" breakout later than expected, plus unlike Byfield he still has room to see gains in TOI. I like Svech here by a pretty wide margin.

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THE ANSWER TO WHO THE PLAYER IS……….Adam Deadmarsh!

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Questions for Mailbag column needed

The upcoming edition of my monthly mailbag still has room for more questions, which you can send me by either private messaging “rizzeedizzee” via the DobberHockey Forums, or emailing [email protected] with “Roos Mailbag” as the subject line.