Welcome back to Goldipucks and the Three Skaters, a play on words of the Goldilocks and the Three Bears story. Instead of there being three bowls of porridge though, I cover three skaters and declare one too hot (i.e., doing unsustainably better than he should), another too cold (i.e., doing unsustainably worse), and a third “just right” (i.e., producing where he should be). In addition, I also assign each a rating of 1-10, indicating how hot (rated 7-10, where 10 is the most unsustainably hot), cold (rated 1-4, where 1 is the most unsustainably cold), or “just right” (rated 4-7, where 5.5 is the most “just right”) he is.

This is usually where I go over who I'm covering and invite you to guess who's too hot, too hot, and just right. This week is different, since I'm telling you, namely Drake Batherson (Too Hot), Evan Bouchard (Too Cold), and Tage Thompson (Just Right). Why? Because I start writing these columns 7-10 days before they go live, since I have a day job. Usually the players I pick will still stay the same in terms of hot/cold, but this time they did…..what I was going to predict over the next three games. The problem is it was too late for me to rewrite my column. So keep in mind the stats of these players are through January 19th. But it still will be insightful, as you can see why I came to what turned out to be correct conclusions. Lastly, I'm not doing this to show how right I am, just to let you know it's not easy to write these in one's spare time. With all that out of the way, here's the column.

Drake Batherson (45GP, 19G, 25A, 98SOG, 18:06 TOI, 12PPPts)

Not drafted until age 19, and in the fourth round, Ottawa presumably did not have sky high expectations for Batherson. Hpwever, he was in the AHL the following season, but he scored a better than a point per game. Still, it wasn't until he did even better, with 54 points in 44 games in 2019-20, that Batherson punched his ticket to the NHL to stay. By his second full season he produced at a 78-point pace, albeit in just 46 games. Since then his scoring rate has held steady in the 60s, making his rise back to a nearly point per game pace thus far this season appear too good to be true, but is it? Seemingly yes.

At the outset I'll acknowledge that Batherson hit the 400-game mark earlier this season, which is significant since he is a larger frame player and thus that would mark his breakout threshold. As such, him making a leap is within reason. But just because this is coinciding with his breakout threshold does not legitimize it if the data suggests otherwise, which it does.

Immediately we have to note Batherson's SH% of 19.4%, with it being 12.8% entering this season. Yes, his career rate is likely weighted down by an 8.8% rate for one season, with him shooting at a rate of 13.7%-15.5% in his other full seasons, and his SOG rate has fallen a bit, which could be consistent with a takeaway that as a more selective shooter he might also be a more accurate one. Still, I think it's fair to conclude at least a couple, to even as much as a handful, of his goals thus far ought to be discounted given how high his SH% is.

Looking at other metrics, it's almost uncanny how little variation there is this season versus prior recent campaigns where his scoring rate was in the 60s, as his overall TOI is right where it's been the past two seasons, and his SOG rate, though lower, is barely so, at 2.2 this season, versus 2.3 last season and 2.4 two seasons ago. Also, his rates of PPPts and PPGs per game are essentially on a par with last season, as is his PP TOI per game. Given that, it seems a stretch for Batherson to be scoring this much better, even if accounting at least somewhat for a boost due to him being at his 400-game breakout threshold.

What about deeper dive numbers? Batherson's overall IPP stands at 76.4%, which would be a career best, although in his five full seasons he's had an outlyingly low rate of 62.6%, but otherwise has been in the range of 68.8% to 73.9%, for an average – if not considering the 62.2% rate – of 71.1%. A mark of 76.4% is most certainly not a glaringly high number, but it likely has led to him scoring at a rate that is higher enough as to not likely be sustainable.

It’s a similar story as far as PP IPP, as his rate of 65.2% is higher than what it was in three of his last four seasons, although not by much, as those rates were 63.3%, 60.4%, 56.0%, and the higher rate was 71.0%. Far too high? No. But likely too high to be sustained? Probably.

Otherwise, his team SH% is 10.2%, which would mark not only just the second time for him to the in double digits, but only the second of him being above 8.7%, and in fact he's been at 6.6%-7.0% in half his full seasons. Clearly this is being boosted by his individual SH%; but it is also suspect because of his lack of proven track record of lots of points being scored while he is on the ice. This too likely will fall and, with that, his scoring. 

His OZ% is also on pace to match his career best, although at 64.2% it's not impossible to envision it staying at that level for at least the rest of the season if it's been that way thus far. It cannot be ignored that it's been 49-53% twice and 57-59% twice, such that here too it is trending higher. Of all the metrics though, this is one I can see being sustained since if the team has deployed him like this thus far, it likely will continue.

As far as his secondary assist rate, that is right where it normally is, so it should not affect him the rest of the way. But he already has hit as many posts and crossbars – six – as he did all last season, meaning perhaps a couple of points he'd have been due to give back might be offset by the iron being less unkind to him over the rest of the season.

This is a great example of how the breakout threshold, though still often reliable, can lead to presuming a player's increased production can be sustained simply because it happens to have coincided with his BT. Factoring in BT is valid; however, where, as here, a player's other metrics suggest that he's overachieving, that is what is most predictive. Therefore, I'd say Batherson has been TOO HOT in 2025-26. Given the points he's banked, I'd look for him to finish with a scoring rate in the upper 60s to low 70s, giving him a rating of 8.25.

Evan Bouchard (50 GP, 13G, 37 A, 129 SOG, 19PPts)

A top-ten pick in 2018, Bouchard had tastes of NHL action that same season and the next, but was not a regular until 2020-21. He certainly did not set the world on fire in his first two campaigns, with barely above a collective point per every other game. But then came the 2023 playoffs, where Bouchard exploded to the tune of 17 points in 12 games. He carried that into 2023-24 and posted 82 points in 81 games, then again amazed amid the pressure cooker that is playoff hockey, with 32 points in 26 games, meaning from the 2023 playoffs through the 2024 playoffs, he had a jaw dropping 131 points in 119 games. Yet he came back to earth last season with 67 points, which is great but certainly below what had become very lofty expectations. Yet again, however, he was above a point-per-game come playoff time, and for 2025-26 has been back at or around the point per game mark. Is that the best we can expect from him outside of the playoffs? No, but only because he should be doing even better.

It is great to see that Bouchard is taking the ice for 90 seconds more than he did in his previous point per game season. But digging deeper, essentially all of those added minutes have come in the form of PK duty, which is not something that leads to scoring plus taxes a player to an extent that it can often hurt his production. Yet what's key for Bouchard is he's still right at the same OZ% as he was in 2023-24, meaning that although his added ice time is not ideal, he's being deployed better otherwise, for no negative effect.

Also, Bouchard is on the ice for 85.9% of Edmonton's PP minutes, which is not just tops among all NHL d-men, but only him, Adam Fox, Quinn Hughes and Zack Werenski are even above 75%. That is great to see, especially since his PP TOI is virtually identical to what it was in 2023-24, when he took the ice for 77.5%. What that suggests is Edmonton is taking fewer penalties, and sure enough Edmonton is dead last in PP TOI per game. Granted, they were second to last in 2023-24; however, there is only one way for this to go, and that is up, with Bouchard to be a beneficiary if/when it does, even if it's not by a huge amount.

This is also relevant since Bouchard's PP IPP is 45.2%, after having been 61.4% in 2023-24 and even 60.5% last season when his production was way down. If he'd only been that high once, in his breakout season, that would be one thing; however, to see he was at that same rate in 2024-25 even when producing worse suggests that 45.2% is definitely quite low, with him likely to see healthy gains in PPPts per game over the rest of the 2025-26 season.

Bouchard's SH% as of now would mark a career high, but barely as compared to 2023-24, and he's averaging 2.6 SOG per game this season versus 2.7 in 23-24, so that can help explain it. Although his PPG rate is higher than even 2023-24, his PP SH% is not too elevated, and he's taking more PP SOG, which of course are higher percentage shots for a d-man; so if anything, his overall SH% being comparable to 2023-24 might be a bit low.

Otherwise, things look a lot like 2023-24, from his IPP to his team SH% at 5×5. The fact these are similar to 2023-24 is great since is reinforces that he should keep producing at ES, such that his PP gains will not be offset by lower scoring in other situations. What is not the same as 2023-24, however, is Bouchard's secondary assist rate, which sits at 43.2%, versus 60.9% in 2023-24. That is also one of the lowest rates among the top ten defensemen this season in assists, whose secondary assist percentage average is 50.2%. Thus, Bouchard likely will see an uptick in scoring in the normal course as his secondary assist rate ticks upward.

For those thinking Bouchard inching closer to a point-per-pame as his limit, it looks like he has even more in him based on these metrics. Thus, his 2025-26 has been TOO COLD, with a rating of 3.0, as I think he's a lock for 85 points, and likelier to rise to 90 than to fall to 80.

Tage Thompson (48 GP, 25 G, 25 A, 169 SOG, 15PPPts)

A late first round pick by St. Louis in 2016, Thompson was shuttled back and forth between the AHL and NHL, in the midst of which he was moved to Buffalo as part of the Ryan O'Reilly trade. In fact, it wasn't until 2020-21 that Thompson was in the NHL to stay, making the decision easy for the Sabres by scoring at a 70-point rate. The following season he had a nearly triple digit scoring rate, with an identical 47 goals and assists, seemingly signaling that he'd arrived as a fantasy stud. Since then, not only has he failed to come close to duplicating that scoring level, he didn't even reach point per game scoring. For 2025-26 though, he is above a point per game. Can it continue? Most likely, yes.

It would be a stretch to see Thompson as a consistent 100-point producer, since if we go back to 2000-01, although there have been 122 other instances of a forward who produced at a 1.2 point per game rate (i.e., a 98-point rate) in 60+ games, just six did while averaging less TOI per game than Thompson's 18:32 in 2023-24. f them, only two hit 90+ points in a subsequent season, namely Matthew Tkachuk, who, after tallying 109 points in 2021-22 while averaging 17:54 per game, had 109 points in 2022-23, but averaging 20:26 per game, and Filip Forsberg, who had 84 points in 69 games in 2021-22 while averaging 18:06 per game, then posted 94 points in 2023-24, but with an average TOI of 18:54. But 85-90 points is a bit more within reason, as if we lower the points per game threshold to 1.1, translating to a 90-point pace, there were 234 instances, of which 35, or 15%, had an average TOI less than what Thompson's is now. In short, it could be credible for him to be an ~85-point player with his TOI, provided his other metrics back it up; and they do.

As is likely not a coincidence, Thompson's PP TOI per game is back to where it was in that great season, after being sub-3:00 per game in each of the past two campaigns. What is interesting though is his PPPt pace is not far below that season, even though he's on track to have fewer than half the PPGs. His PP SOG pace is the same, at roughly one per game; but in 2022-23 his PP SH% was 24.4%, which was well above his overall SH%. This season he has a mere four PPGs on 43 PPSOG, making his PP SH% well less than his ES SH%. From where I sit, if he does get a higher share of PPGs, it might not mean more PPPts, since in 2022-23 his PP IPP was 70.8%, and since then it's been 61.5% and 53.5%, and 62.5% so far this season.

What's also notable about Thompson is no forward has hit more combined crossbars and posts than his 14 in total, which is more than his 13 from all of last season. When he had 98 points, that was despite 23 combined crossbars and posts. It's a good news, bad news situation in that he might hit even more, but this also suggests he'd dialed in, ala how he was in 2022-23, lending legitimacy to his production rate.

Thompson has other metrics that mirror those of 2022-23, notably his team SH%, overall IPP, and secondary assist rate. Why then is he not scoring more, nor should we expect him to do so? A big difference is OZ%, where in 2022-23 his was 63.9%, versus 52.8% for this season thus far. That might not seem like a major difference; however, looking at forwards from last season who were in the top 60 in points per 60 minutes, only ten had an OZ% as low or lower than Thompson's from this season. In fact, for Thompson to be scoring as well as he is given his OZ% is a testament to his skill, but also a reminder that it's very difficult to do much better without better deployment. 

Is Buffalo doing better because Thompson is, or vice versa? Either way, Thompson's scoring rate seems legit, as he is on a par with 2022-23 in many areas, although not in what might be most important, and that is OZ%. As such, I see his production as JUST RIGHT, and give him a rating of 4.5, as he should be able to maintain a slightly better than point per game pace, and perhaps approach 90 if the Sabres keep on rolling.

***********************

Thanks for reading, assuming you got this far. Hopefully it'll be back to normal for the next edition of Goldipucks, where the players won't be so quick to prove me right (or wrong).

Questions for Mailbag 

My monthly mailbag is set to run next week and has room for more questions. To get yours to me, send (1) a private message to “rizzeedizzee” via the DobberHockey Forums, or (2) an email to [email protected] with “Roos Mailbag” as the subject line.