As we head into the back half of the 2025-2026 regular season, it's a natural time to identify players who've been producing at unsustainable rates. Some of these names are proven producers who can beat expectations year after year, but in most cases, regression to the mean reigns supreme.

With this in mind, here are the Top 10 regression candidates for the stretch run.

(Statistics courtesy of Frozen Tools and current to the afternoon of February 8, 2026)

10. Anthony Mantha, LW/RW, Pittsburgh Penguins

Mantha seems to have rediscovered his game during his first season in Pittsburgh, racking up 42 points (20 goals, 22 assists) in 56 games. His 20 goals and 42 points are just five goals and six points shy of his single-season career highs in goals (25) and points (48), both of which he set as a member of the Red Wings back in 2018-2019. While it is great to see Mantha making an impact, his 19.2 SH% and Band-Aid Boy Certified status are red flags for one of the newest members of the black and yellow.

9. Gabriel Vilardi, C/RW, Winnipeg Jets

Like Mantha, Vilardi is a Band-Aid Boy Certified winger who has already eclipsed the 20-goal mark through 56 games. In fact, 2025-2026 is Vilardi's fourth consecutive 20+-goal campaign, despite averaging just over 60 games played in each of the past three seasons. Glued to Kyle Connor at even strength and cemented on the Jets' top powerplay unit, Vilardi benefits from prime deployment. However, his fragility, coupled with his 19.3 SH%, makes Vilardi a going concern for Jets fans and fantasy managers alike.

8. Brandon Hagel, LW/RW, Tampa Bay Lightning

Hagel has followed up his monster 35-goal, 90-point explosion from last season with another remarkably productive first half, recording 54 points (27 goals, 27 assists) through 54 games. While Hagel has a legitimate chance to set a new career high in goals by season's end, his 18.2 SH% represents the second-highest mark of his seven-year NHL career. A modest goalscoring dip may be looming.

7. Seth Jarvis, LW/RW, Carolina Hurricanes

Team Canada's final pre-tournament replacement has been fantastic once again for the Hurricanes, registering 43 points (25 goals, 18 assists) in 49 games. Jarvis has really clicked on Carolina's top line alongside Sebastian Aho and Andrei Svechnikov, but his 55.6 Sec. Asst% is higher than expected. That could indicate he will be hard-pressed to keep plucking apples at the same rate over the Canes' remaining 25 games.

6. Mason Marchment, LW, Columbus Blue Jackets

Marchment has been excellent since arriving in Columbus, recording 13 points (nine goals, four assists) in 14 games as a member of the red, white, and navy blue. Notably, however, Marchment is currently sporting a 61.5 Sec. Assist%, a rate significantly higher than expected. While new Jackets head coach Rick Bowness seems to love Marchment, it would not be surprising to see his raw totals take a hit down the stretch, particularly given his Band-Aid Boy Certified status.

5. Jake Neighbours, LW/RW, St. Louis Blues

Neighbours has been a bright spot amid a forgettable season in St. Louis, leading the team in goals (14) and ranking fifth in points (25) despite missing 13 games. Unfortunately, his 23.3 SH% is higher than expected and nearly 5.5% above his career average of 18%. While the Blues season is all but over at this point (barring a repeat of the team's miraculous run in 2019), St. Louis may need to look elsewhere for offence when Neighbours' goalscoring touch cools off.

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4. Jared McCann, C/LW, Seattle Kraken

McCann is a proven goalscorer, registering 20+ goals in each of the past four seasons, including a monster 40-goal campaign in 2022-2023. Behind his success has been high-volume shooting, as the 2014 first-rounder has recorded 200+ shots in each of the past three seasons (he registered 199 four seasons ago). While McCann's 2.5 SOG/G this year is generally consistent with his career rate to date (2.3), his 20.3 SH% through 32 games is the highest of his career and nearly 8% higher than his career average (12.6). Given Seattle's offensive struggles, McCann may be hard-pressed to keep producing at this rate despite his undeniable knack for finding the back of the net.

3. Mark Scheifele, C, Winnipeg Jets

Scheifele has been a beast for the Jets this season, amassing 68 points (27 goals, 41 assists) in 56 games, putting him on pace for his first 100-point season. While Scheif's offensive production has been tremendous, his 5-on-5 SH% and Sec. Asst% are both higher than expected. It's possible that this season will go down as the year Scheifele shatters his previous single-season career high in points (87), but with his 33^rd birthday around the corner, it's equally possible that his pace will cool off down the stretch.

2. Morgan Geekie, C/LW/RW, Boston Bruins

Before the regular season began, I characterized Morgan Geekie as a potential negative regression candidate, in part due to his lofty 21.9 SH% last year. Geekie proved me wrong early, exploding for 25 goals in his first 42 games. Overall, Geekie has registered 54 points in 56 games for the Bruins this season, putting him on pace for just under 80 points. However, Geekie's 24.8 SH% (third-highest among forwards with 20+ games played and over 7% higher than his career average) screams regression.

1. Mark Stone, RW, Vegas Golden Knights

Stone has justifiably received considerable recognition across the fantasy hockey community for his stellar play this season, producing at an absurd 120-point 82-game pace thus far. While Vegas' captain is an incredibly intelligent hockey player with Stanley Cup pedigree, he has never recorded more than 73 points in a single season and has only finished four of his 13 seasons with a 16.0 SH% or higher. Given his 23.3 SH% and 4.5 PTS/60 (both of which rank inside the top 10 among forwards with at least 20 games played), it may not be long until fantasy managers can no longer draw blood from a Stone.

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That's all for this week! Follow me on X @SmoothE27 for more fantasy hockey content and analysis, and feel free to DM me with any questions about your team.

Stay tuned for the next Top 10 on Monday, February 16. Have a great week everyone!