Happy Friday the 13th, it's Alex MacLean here covering for Cliffy who has earned a well deserved weekend off. 

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Day two of the men's Olympic Ice Hockey saw Canada and the United States make great impressions with five goals apiece in convincing wins over the Czechs and Latvia respectively. Switzerland and Germany also earned decisive victories over France and Denmark. 

Josh Morrissey leaving the Canadian game with a mystery injury isn't a great sign for the Canadians or possibly the Jets. Though at this point the Jets don't have much of a chance of winning any hardware this season anyways. 

On the women's side of the Olympic ice hockey, the postponed Canada vs Finland game was played with the Canadians taking a 5-0 win despite finishing the game down two of their best forwards. The Americans look like the team to beat though. 

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With no NHL games last night, today, tomorrow, or the day after, we're going to review some of the bigger landscape shifts in the NHL so far this year, and see whether there are some patterns we can delineate from them. What that means is big trades, coaching changes, etc. 

The other interesting part of the break will come from trying to make some educated guesses on which streaks will continue through the break, and which might see a 180-degree flip. 

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Since Quinn Hughes was traded to the Wild, he has 34 points in 26 games, good for 1.3 pts/gp, compared to his usual rate of around 1.1 from the last few years. It could be unsustainable, but at the same time all of his underlying metrics are within normal ranges (the 5on5 Sh% is a little high, but that might account for a point or two), and his shooting percentage is quite low. This may just be the production we get from Hughes between now and the end of the season. 

In those 26 games, Brock Faber has 22 points, playing alongside Hughes at even strength. It's quite the fantasy glow-up for Faber compared to playing in more of a shutdown role alongside Jonas Brodin. Brodin still has another 4-6 weeks on his initial injury timeline, but it will be interesting to see how the pairings shake out upon his return, and whether Faber keeps the plum gig with Hughes, or returns to the shutdown role with Brodin. 

Over that same 26-game period since the Hughes trade, Kirill Kaprizov has 36 points, Mats Zuccarello has 21 (in 23 games), Joel Eriksson Ek has 18 (in 20 games), and Matt Boldy has 27 (in 22 games) – that makes up the entire top powerplay unit with Hughes, a big boost to all five of them. Meanwhile, with Marco Rossi having gone the other way, Ryan Hartman (17 points in 26 games) and Danila Yurov (14 in 26) both saw their production jump by an extra 50%. 

Over on the Vancouver side of the trade, the Canucks are not faring so well. The only two players on the team on hot streaks entering the break are Liam Ohgren (part of the Hughes package) and Teddy Blueger (who returned Jan 21^st after missing all but two games due to injuries). 

Ohgren has scored all nine of his points this year with the Canucks and is thriving with the steady increase in ice time he has seen. If he could find some consistency with his shot volume, he might be a worthwhile fantasy own in regular leagues pretty soon. 

Marco Rossi meanwhile was injured two weeks into his Canucks tenure, going minus-five in eight games while collecting two points. Not a great look, but it can't have been easy for him going from a solid team where he is flanked by an MVP caliber winger, to the Canucks…

Zeev Buium scored two points in his Canucks debut on Dec 14^th, but in the 19 games since then, has amassed four points and a broken cheek bone that is now holding him out of the lineup. Buium has the most fantasy upside of anyone that came back to the Canucks for Hughes, but he's not going to be that player right away. It will take some patience from his fantasy owners. 

For the first three Hughes-free weeks, Filip Hronek picked up the slack and was a point-per-game player, but he has cooled down over the last month, just like the rest of the team. There's some fantasy upside there, but as with any player on a bottom team, the production is unpredictable and inconsistent, which doesn't pair well with a steady dose of minus ratings. 

Both Brock Boeser and Elias Pettersson say production declines with Hughes gone, and it's tough to see a future where they get back to their usual production rates within the next few years. With Thatcher Demko out for the season, and not a ton currently in the pipeline, the future is fairly bleak in Vancouver. 

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The Buffalo Sabres have been on a huge run lately, which lines up very neatly with when former GM Kevyn Adams was fired on December 15^th. It shouldn't really affect anything directly with the on-ice product, but we'll call it a culture shift. 

The Sabres went 16-5-2 since then on the backs of Alex Lyon, Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen, and Colten Ellis. Both UPL and Lyon missed stretches during that run, but overall the Sabres have been getting solid if unspectacular goaltending most of the season from those three. 

One of the big reasons the Sabres have surged here, is how their top-four blueliners have really come together. Both Owen Power and Bowen Byram have been playing excellent hockey of late, and are logging big minutes and controlling the game at both ends of the ice. Meanwhile, the pairing of Rasmus Dahlin and Mattias Samuelsson has made their success visible not just on the ice, but on the scoresheet as well. Dahlin has 23 points in 24 games since the culture shift, and Samuelsson has 22 in 25. Samuelsson's underlying numbers on the season are completely unsustainable, while Dahlin's are right in the expected range for him, actually being a hint low if anything. 

Up front, there have been contributions from the whole lineup, but it has been the second line duo of Ryan McLeod and Jack Quinn that has led the way since mid-December, with either a healthy Jason Zucker or Zach Benson making up the trio. McLeod especially has been dominant, posting 25 points and a plus-20 rating across 25 games. In multi-category leagues he does have a weakness that the peripherals aren't very strong, with only 29 SOG across that same 25-game span, and minimal Hits or Blocks. Quinn has 20 points in his last 25 games, and 59 shots to go with it, though surprisingly he only carries a plus-eight rating, which differs vastly from the center he spends so much time with. A testament to McLeod, or a knock against Quinn and his ability to defend without McLeod on the ice…

Zucker has also been productive, with 11 points in 17 healthy games since mid-December, and still has plenty left in the tank at 34. Lots of fantasy value across Buffalo's top nine, but outside of Tage Thompson, there likely isn't anyone that will consistently put up close to a point-per-game the rest of the way. 

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You might have already heard that the Blue Jackets went into the Olympic break on a 10-1 run, coinciding with Rick Bowness being hired on January 13^th. The team has been excellent in that stretch, and it seems like Bowness is pushing all the right buttons. 

Charlie Coyle has been the most noticeable change, seeing over a minute more per game, and reaping the rewards with 16 points in those 11 games. Linemate Cole Sillinger has also jumped of late after having worked himself into Dean Evason's doghouse by the end of his tenure. Sillinger has six points in his last six games, and has been meshing well after being reunited with Coyle. 

On the flip side, Sean Monahan has seen his minutes drop, especially on the power play where he has lost over a minute per game. Despite that, he has remained just as productive as he was earlier in the year. His shot rate is way down this year, and without the power play production the overall numbers might be ready for another step down. 

Dmitry Voronkov may have been the one who was hurt the most by the coaching change, going from over 15 minutes per game with first-unit power play time, all the way down under 10 minutes per game in the last nine contests, along with very limited power play time. He could be a good buy-low for those with long-term goals, but he's droppable in the short term. 

The addition of Mason Marchment to the team on Dec 19^th has made a big difference as well, with Marchment piling up 13 points in his 14 games in Columbus, and still flying very much under the radar.  

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The St. Louis Blues went on a big run in the second half last year, and there are some signs that we might see something similar again in 2026. In the last six games entering the break, the Blues are averaging 4.0 goals per game, and at least the offence is clicking. Working against them though is that keeping the puck out of their own net has become a challenge, allowing nearly five goals per game in that same stretch. 

Looking at the forwards, Pavel Buchnevich has six points in his last four games, and has seen his shot rate and ice time tick up a little. Jimmy Snuggerud, with nine points in six games, has seen an even bigger growth in his ice time, and his underlying metrics say there's still some positive regression to go. Jordan Kyrou has put up eight points in his last four games, and might still be one of the best buy-low options out there. 

The trio of forwards is also keeping some of the defencemen afloat, with recent point-per-game or better stretches from Philip Broberg, Tyler Tucker, and Justin Faulk. On top of that, Robert Thomas is due back fully healthy after the Olympic break. It's worth getting in on the forwards, and if this "rest" (maybe less of a rest for Jordan Binnington playing for Canada at the Olympics) helps out the goalies, then they could be great buy-low options for the stretch run as well.

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See you next Wednesday, and if you have any fantasy hockey questions or comments you can find me on BlueSky @alexdmaclean.