One thing that really matters for good offensive production is efficiency. Not only does that mean being able to drive high shooting percentages – though that is important – but it's creating as many chances as possible on the fewest number of touches or zone entries as possible. We can attempt to quantify that by going over scoring chances off zone entries, so let's do exactly that today.

For this, we are going to use tracking data from All Three Zones and see which teams are getting a lot of scoring chances off a specific forward's zone entries at 5-on-5. For example, if Connor McDavid has 100 zone entries, and the Edmonton Oilers create 25 scoring chances off those zone entries, they are averaging 0.25 chances per entry by McDavid.

The following graphs will have team chances per player zone entry as well as that individual player's overall rate of zone entries per 60 minutes. We are going to limit our sample to forwards with at least 100 tracked minutes this season, which gives us 274 names. All data is current as of the Olympic break. The red and blue dotted lines are the league average for forwards by each stat.

Goal/point data is from Evolving Hockey.

Evgeni Malkin and Tommy Novak (Pittsburgh Penguins)

We have to start with a pair of teammates because they are fascinating on their own as well as a duo:

Considering he turns 40 years old this summer, Malkin is having a superlative season with 44 points in 41 games, pacing for his first point-per-game season since 2022-23. His 1.08 primary assists at 5-on-5 have him tied for 20^th among forwards with at least 500 minutes at that strength, and his 0.76 total assists per game is his highest rate since before the pandemic.

Knowing this, it's no surprise that the Penguins are creating so many scoring chances off his zone entries. What is surprising is that he leads the entire league in this regard and clears the next-closest player by 7%. He is also doing that while responsible for far more zone entries per 60 minutes (21.4) than the league average (18.0). Fantasy managers must always be a bit worried about age-related decline, but he also gets three weeks off for the Olympic break and is on a team that has been able to create offence very well this season. As long as he's healthy, he's not a player to move on from this season.

Then we get to Tommy Novak. After a down 2024-25 season that saw him post just 1.54 points per 60 minutes at 5-on-5, he has rebounded in a big way to 2.21 points/60 minutes, a rate of a low-end first-line forward. He has played a fair bit with Malkin, but still only one-third of his 5-on-5 time has been spent next to the future Hall of Famer, and Novak is also 18^th out of our 274 forwards by rate of zone entries per 60 minutes. The team is more productive with the two of them skating together than when apart, but Novak has been a significant part of the depth scoring that has helped the Penguins get to a playoff position.

The problem for Novak's fantasy value is he skates less than 14 minutes per game and doesn't get top PP time. Combine that with very modest peripherals (85 shots, 20 blocks, and 9 hits in 56 games), and there are a lot of fantasy leagues where he won't be roster-able. But if injuries hit, he can be a big beneficiary, and it bodes well for next season if the Penguins move on from some veterans.

Beckett Sennecke (Anaheim Ducks)

It feels like I'm writing about Sennecke every other week, but every time I look at a different aspect of his profile, I walk away impressed. If he were doing this as a 5-year veteran, it would still be impressive, but that he's doing this as a rookie is a different ball game entirely:

With his rate of chances per entry and overall entries per 60 minutes, Sennecke is 1 of 14 forwards in our sample to be higher than the 84^th percentile in both areas. It is no mistake that his rate of points per 60 minutes is in the 83^rd percentile of regular forwards, and that he is 1 of 22 forwards to average at least 1.1 goals and 1.1 assists per 60 minutes at 5-on-5.

There is always a concern about a rookie fading down the stretch as the wear-and-tear of an 82-game regular season grinds them down. However, the Olympic break is providing a lot of rookies with the chance to take a breather as they head towards the final 20-something games of the season, and that hopefully helps Sennecke maintain this level of offensive creation. Even if it doesn't, this is another datapoint that highlights just how special a player he is already and will be for the next 15 years.

Connor Bedard (Chicago Blackhawks)

In the section on Sennecke, we mentioned 14 players who are at least the 84^th percentile by both team chances per zone entry as well as individual entries per 60 minutes. Another one of those 14 players is Bedard, and that won't be a big surprise to anyone who has watched him this season:

Knowing this, also slotting into the 'Not A Surprise' column is that the Blackhawks are scoring 3.23 goals per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 with Bedard on the ice and 1.98 goals per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 with Bedard off the ice. Whatever concerns fantasy managers may have had about Bedard's 67-point sophomore season should be quelled by his 2025-26 campaign thus far as his 82-game pace is just under 100 points.  

In our sample of 274 forwards, Bedard ranks 12^th by individual zone entries per 60 minutes, and that is 39% above the league average. While the chances per entry aren't among the elite, that rate for Bedard is 48% above the league average. He has taken a big step forward this season in being able to carry the offence when he's on the ice, and as long as he stays healthy, the upward trajectory should only continue as the team around him improves.

Kirill Marchenko (Columbus Blue Jackets)

We could say the following about several players, but there may not be a more unheralded star forward in the league than Marchenko. Over the last 2.5 seasons, he leads all forwards in 5-on-5 goal differential per 60 minutes relative to his teammates, and it's not particularly close (nearly 20% higher than the next-closest forward). The 2025-26 season hasn't been as elite as prior years, but still excellent, and it shouldn't come as a surprise that he's another one of those 14 forwards with high-end chances per entry and individual entries per 60 minutes:

Overall, of the 274 forwards in our sample for this season, Marchenko is 12^th by team chances per player zone entry. There has been a lot of efficiency here.

At 0.92 points per game, Marchenko has taken a slight step back from what he did last season (0.94), but there is still a lot of fantasy goodness: A career-high rate of shots per game and hits per game, and a three-year high in blocks per game. Columbus saw a scoring boost when they added Mason Marchment to Marchenko's top line, and if that scoring boost persists down the stretch, we could very well see Marchenko's best 26-game stretch of the season.

Michael Carcone (Utah Mammoth)

When looking at the 14 names of players we mentioned – the ones 84^th percentile or higher by chances per entry as well as entries per 60 minutes – most of the names make sense: Sennecke, Bedard, Marchenko, Nathan MacKinnon, Nikolaj Ehlers, Tim Stutzle, and so on. There are a few surprises, and one of them is undoubtedly Michael Carcone from Utah:

Utah is one of the highest scoring teams at 5-on-5 this season, so there is more here than simply what Carcone is doing individually. With that said, his 1.9 points per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 is that of a mid-tier second line forward, and his 0.95 goals per 60 minutes is the rate of a low-end first liner. Over the last 2.5 seasons, his 1.1 goals per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 is the same rate as Jason Robertson and higher than names like Marchenko, Brandon Hagel, and Adrian Kempe. He has turned into one of the more effective, and productive, bottom-6 forwards in the league.

Dominic James (Tampa Bay Lightning)

Lastly, we need to talk about Tampa Bay, given that they're the second-highest scoring team at 5-on-5 in the league. However, when we think about all the talent they have up front, we don't think about Dominic James. That is why he's mentioned here because like others on this list, he is 1 of 14 forwards with at least an 84^th percentile rate of team chances per entry and individual entries per 60 minutes:

If this were a case where we saw a lot of chances per entry but a low rate of zone entries, it could be that he's just riding the coattails of those talented line mates. However, James' 23.9 zone entries per 60 minutes is 22^nd out of the 274 forwards in our sample, and higher than names like Nathan MacKinnon, Leon Draisaitl, Nick Suzuki, and Tim Stutzle. On top of that, his two most-common line mates are Gage Goncalves and Oliver Bjorkstrand, so he's not skating much with the top Lightning forwards, either.

James won't get significant ice time on a team as loaded up front as the Lightning are, but there is one open spot in the top-6 when the team is healthy. Even if he doesn't get much of a look in that top-6 the rest of the way, what James has done this season bodes extremely well for his upside down the road.