Welcome back to Goldipucks and the Three Skaters, a play on words of the Goldilocks and the Three Bears story. Instead of there being three bowls of porridge though, I cover three skaters and declare one too hot (i.e., doing unsustainably better than he should), another too cold (i.e., doing unsustainably worse), and a third “just right” (i.e., producing where he should be). In addition, I also assign each a rating of 1-10, indicating how hot (rated 7-10, where 10 is the most unsustainably hot), cold (rated 1-4, where 1 is the most unsustainably cold), or “just right” (rated 4-7, where 5.5 is the most “just right”) he is.

With the trade deadline having passed, fantasy GMs are readying for H2H playoffs or trying to make gains in roto leagues. Key to accomplishing both is knowing if their players are overachieving or underachieving, or can be counted on to keep producing as they have thus far. With that in mind, we look at three players this month: Tim Stutzle, Rasmus Dahlin, and Brandon Hagel. Can you figure out which one has been too hot for 2025-26, versus who's been too cold and who's play has been "just right"? Pause here to lock in your guesses, then read on to find out. Stats are current through March 14th games.

Tim Stutzle (60 GP, 30G, 40A, 162 SOG, 20:27 TOI, 23 PPPts, 3:24 PP, 63.3% PP%)

Drafted third overall in 2020, Stutzle went directly to the NHL, faring okay but not great in his first season. He made strides in his second campaign, but went supernova in his third, tallying 90 points in 78 games. It was thought he'd only get better from there, but that has not been the case, with him failing to reach even the point per game mark in either of the next two seasons. He's faring far better in 2025-26, on a par with 2022-23. Can we now count on him being a 90+ point player, or is this another outlying season? Unfortunately for those who own him, the latter seems to be the case.

In his best season, Stutzle took the ice for 21:16, with 3:58 of that on the PP. Compare that to now, where his overall TOI is nearly a minute less and his PPTOI about 30 seconds lower. Somehow despite a still high TOI, and taking regular shifts on the PK, Stutzle's offensive zone starting percentage is 68.2%. This is concerning, since it realistically cannot go higher than that, and if he was to get back to his prior TOI level, it almost assuredly would come at the expense of his OZ%, with him never having even been at 60% or higher previously.

Also, looking at scoring forwards with an OZ% of 65% or higher and average TOI per game of 20:00+, there's Jack Hughes, Kyle Connor, and Mark Scheifele, that's all, emphasizing how rare this is. None of them have near the amount of SH time per game as Stutzle to offset their OZ%, plus, in the case of Connor and Scheifele, they have been seeing their OZ% uptick with each season, but gradually, this being the seventh season that Scheifele has seen his OZ% rise, with it being above 60% in the three prior seasons for him and Connor. As for Hughes, he's been above 60% every season of his career. Stutzle sticks out, and not in a good way, because he's seen his OZ% rise by so much and despite a lot of PK duty.

Also, Stutzle's 5×5 team SH% is 12.3%, which, even for a top tier player, is a bit high. But for Stutzle, it's well above his norm, as he had never previously been in double digits. On the plus side, when he did tally 90 points it was 9.1%, seemingly signifying that if – when – it does drop, he could still be able to produce. Still, the combination of his atypically high OZ% and 5×5 team SH% suggests he's definitely overachieving.

Stutzle's PP IPP is a bit down, but not much, and his secondary assist rate is a bit low for him, but, at 47.4%, is not objectively low, and unlikely to rise enough to yield many added points. Add to it that his overall IPP is at his norm, and, importantly, is below the 70% mark for a second straight season, with 70% being a threshold associated with nearly all players who can be counted on for elite scoring. Also, although Stutzle's SOG per game rate is at 2.5, up from 2.0 last season, it's well below the 2.9 it was when he tallied 90 points in 2022-23, plus his personal SH%, at 18.5%, is higher than the 17.1% it was in 2022-23, and considerably above his career rate of 13.2% entering this season, such that he may have tallied as many as nine more goals this season than would have been expected given his career SH%. 

Another issue with Stutzle is he's both less consistent and less explosive than others who are among the top 20 NHL scorers. Of the 15 with more points than him, 14 have points in a higher percentage of games, and likewise his 21 multipoint games are yet again more than just one with more points than him. Interestingly, Stutzle similarly lagged behind higher scorers in terms of consistency in his prior best season of 2022-23; however, he had more multipoint games than over half those with higher point totals, and three games with four points, versus zero four point games for 2025-26. The picture this paints is that of Stutzle not being the caliber of those scoring similar or above him this season, further emphasizing that he is doing better than he should be.

Looking again at the PP, Stutzle's PPG rate is similar to 2022-23. But it shouldn't be, as not only is his PPSOG rate down, with only 35 this entire season, as compared to 64 in 78 games in 2022-23, but his PP SH% is 20.0% this season, versus 14.7% in 2022-23. Yet another indication that he's scoring at too high of a rate to be sustained.

Those hoping Stutzle is officially back to the level he was in 2022-23 should be prepared to be disappointed, as for this season he is most assuredly TOO HOT, with metrics indicative instead of someone who should be at or around an 80-point pace or even a bit lower. Stutzle gets a rating of 9.0, and if you own him in a keeper you might want to consider selling high, as most likely his scoring will drop over the remainder of the season, or, if not, then for 2026-27. In fact, it may have already started.

Rasmus Dahlin (63P, 13G, 47, 162 SOG, 24:49 TOI, 20 PPPts, 3:28 PP, 68.8% PP%)

Selected first overall in 2018, Dahlin went straight to the NHL and, all things considered, did pretty well his first few seasons given his team and lack of elite surrounding talent. However, it was not until his fifth season that all the dots truly connected, with Dahlin amassing 73 points in 78 games. He took a step back the following season, but rose again to a 75-point scoring pace last season, and is right at his career best 78-point scoring rate for 2025-26? Is this the best we're going to get from Dahlin? Most likely not, as he should do even better in future seasons.

Despite Dahlin being on a par with his most productive prior season, he has fared better in one or more prior campaigns in TOI, both overall and on the PP, as well as SOG per game. But as his SOG rate has shrank, his SH% has risen, with it being 8.0%+ for the third straight season after never previously being above 7.6%. Also, his PPPt rate, although not on pace to be a career best, is set to rise for the second consecutive season. These are both good to see.

Something else to consider is Dahlin used to rack up hits and blocks, at his peak averaging two or more of each per game. Now, however, he's under one hit per game and barely above one block. This might be him realizing he ought to prioritize scoring. So although it is not great to see in multicat leagues, for points only it's probably a positive.

Dahlin's TOI is down over a minute from his career best; but it's a "less is more" situation in that his PK duty is also down and his PP TOI per game is pacing to be his second highest. Somehow though, his OZ% is 48.5%, having never previously been below 55%. The fact he's producing this well despite his OZ% being so low is a great sign, plus it might be a lagging indicator, as Buffalo was lousy for a large chunk of the year, which would've led to his OZ% being lower than usual. Or to put it another way, it might be low, but chances are it has risen as the Sabres have ignited. Could he score more if it rises back to 55%? Overall yes, since let's not forget that he's been over a point per game for this hot stretch, meaning that in all likelihood his OZ% has been higher, and he has responded by producing superbly. Also, Dahlin is not the type of player who I can see having an OZ% as low as it is now on a regular basis, as that would be a waste of his true talent, plus Buffalo has other d-men who can handle tougher minutes. Long story short, and looking at things as a whole, Dahlin's OZ% should be back at or near 55% in future seasons, meaning he should be able to keep scoring above a point per game rate if/when that happens.

Dahlin's current secondary assist rate is 57.4%, having been below 40% in two of the past three seasons. Rather than it being elevated, as it might seem, it was too low previously, as more than half of the other top eight scoring d-men have a secondary assist rate of 52.6% or higher. Plus, his IPPs are near his norms, suggesting he is still as dialed in when it comes to scoring. And on top of that, his 5×5 team SH% is right near his average.

Looking at Dahlin's game log, we see four with three points, and one with five, with three of the three point games coming just since February 28th. Yet despite this, his percentage of multipoint games trails that of other high scoring defensemen, suggesting he has realistic room for even more multipoint outputs. His overall consistency though is somehow lower than his norm, with that probably being owed to how poorly Buffalo did in the early going, and thus not likely to carry into future seasons.

Dahlin might be below point per game pace, but that is seemingly owed largely to how awful the Sabres were early on. They're unlikely to be as great in future seasons as they've been since the calendar flipped to 2026; but what we're seeing from Dahlin is more influenced by unsustainably negative metrics from the first half of the season than unsustainably positive ones in this past ~25 games, making his 2025-26 thus far TOO COLD, and earning him a rating of 2.5, as I think he's poised to make a run at 90 points next season, or at worst 85.

Brandon Hagel (60P, 30G, 29A, 175 SOG, 19:39 TOI, 9 PPPts, 2:05 PP, 42.0% PP%)

After an unremarkable first season in the WHL, Hagel was a 6th round pick by Chicago in the 2016 draft. He remained in juniors for four full seasons, finally igniting in his last. His first AHL season was only okay, but he was with the Hawks to stay for 2020-21. After an unremarkable first season, Hagel stood at 37 points in 55 games in 2021-22, only to be traded to Tampa for players and picks. Once in Tampa, Hagel played well, and only got better, culminating in 90 points last season. For 2025-26, he's been at the point per game mark. Is that what we should expect, or could he rise again? Most likely the former.

Despite how well he played in 2024-25, Hagel's TOI is down a full minute, half of which is lost PP time. Indeed, after a trial on PP1, he's now back on PP2, where he'd been in all his prior seasons that saw him finish below the point per game mark. Ironically though, he's on pace for similar PP scoring as last season, but that's a result of a PP IPP of 56.3%, which, to give you an idea of how poorly Hagel fared on the PP previously, is barely less than the sum of his PP IPPs from the last two seasons. It isn't unreasonable though to see his PP IPP rise despite being on PP2, as he's no longer on the ice with the team's point magnets. Even considering that, his PP IPP seems unsustainably high.

Let's also not forget that Hagel posted 90 points last season despite an OZ% of 42.0%, and not even a handful of forwards with an OZ% that low posted a point per every other game. Also, to have posted 90 points despite only 11 coming on the PP is beyond unheard of, as among the 167 other instances of a forward scoring 90+ points dating back to 2000-01, the second lowest PPPt total is 20, or nearly double Hagel's 11.

His OZ% is up to 56.2% this season, so at least that is no longer working against him like 2024-25. Still, we also cannot look past the fact he had ten SHPs in 2024-25, having totaled ten in his entire career before last season, consisting of more than 3.5 times as many games as he played in 2024-25. And sure enough, his SHP total is down to just two this season. That too can explain his lower pace.

Hagel's personal SH% also is high, which is iffy considering he's on pace for a career best SOG rate. Yet his team SH% at 5×5 is 11.1%, which is reasonable plus is on pace to improve versus last season, as it has in each season he's been with Tampa. Also, his secondary assist rate, is 31.0%, having averaged 35.9% the past three seasons, with that number being brought down by one aberrational season of 22.2%. Hagel also has an overall IPP of 71.1%, which, although it would mark a career best, would not be the first time he exceeded 70%, and up only modestly from 68.2% last season. Him having an IPP that high is important because it surpasses the 70% threshold I equate with truly top tier talent, plus it's despite him skating most often at 5×5 with Nikita Kucherov, who is a points magnet. Yes, more points are scored with Kucherov on the ice; but with Kucherov getting at least one in most cases, the fact that Hagel gets one 71% of the time speaks to Hagel being a legitimate scorer.

Looking at Hagel's scoring patterns, he has a point in only 55.0% of games, which is lower than not only every single forward who has more points than him, but lower than less than a handful of the next 25 forwards in total points. He has 19 multipoint games, which is higher than all the 25 forwards directly below him in scoring, plus more than only a handful of the 20 forwards above him. Last season, by comparison, Hagel had a point in a far higher percentage of games, 69.5% to be exact with at least a point, but a slightly lower percentage of multipoint games versus. Moreover, last season he had two four point games and one five-point game, versus just one four-point game this season. Although it's not unrealistic to think he will get back to scoring more consistently, his rate of multipoint games, and how many huge games he has, for this season is more likely his norm.

It's readily apparent Hagel's 2024-25 was an outlier; but him hovering around the point per game mark as he is now, seems reasonable all things considered. As such, his 2025-26 is JUST RIGHT, and he gets a rating of 5.5, as I think an 80-point scoring rate seems like what we should expect going forward.

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Questions for Mailbag 

My monthly mailbag has room for plenty more questions. To get your questions to me, send (1) a private message to “rizzeedizzee” via the DobberHockey Forums, or (2) an email to [email protected] with “Roos Mailbag” as the subject line.