This week on Frozen Tools Forensics we are diving deep. It is that win-or-go-home time of year, whether you are in your fantasy playoffs or in the finals itself. That means this week is all that matters. In one finals matchup I find myself hoping for a little bit of a Hail Mary, which gives me a great opportunity to talk about big games.

We are going to focus this week on players who might be more likely to put up a multi-point game. For the purposes of our conversation and to make it relevant we are focusing on players who are playing twice in the remaining matchup (Friday through Sunday), and who might be more available in Yahoo leagues. These are players who it might be worth swapping out for the bottom of your roster because they have two chances for multi-point glory.

In terms of process, I ran a number of Dobber Reports. First up, the Most Consistent report, which gives us a breakdown of how frequently a player points in a game. We get percentages, and breakdowns by goal and assists. For today we are focusing on the percent of time that a player gets two or more points in a single game. I also needed roster percentage numbers, so I grabbed the Percent Rostered report. Finally, I needed schedule information so ran another custom schedule report to give me all the teams that play twice over the next three days.

Before we dive too deep, I want to give a little primer on multi-point games. We have reviewed this data a couple of times before on this column. Generally speaking, the players with the highest point per game numbers have the highest percentage of multi-point games. This is pretty logical. Connor McDavid and his 137-point pace are going to have more multi-point games than Ross Colton and his 30-point pace. It makes sense then that the relationship is incredibly correlated. But we still have players who are more likely than expected to have big game output. In this case it means that instead of scoring their points one at a time spread over more games, they tend to score in bunches and but also have more games without points. If I am looking for a Hail Mary, this is exactly the kind of player I am looking for. A player in a playoff weekend with two shots at a multi-point game.

In the tables below we are looking at some basic player information (name, position, team, and percent rostered), and then their current scoring stats (games played, points per game, and percent of games with a multi-point game, and difference from expected given point pace).

Since point pace heavily dictates multi-point game percentage, definitely grab players with higher point paces. The tables below are organized by performance above expected. So even though Troy Terry below has the highest point pace of the group he is also getting multi-point games at a might higher rate than his point pace would indicate.

The above list is those players who are rostered in 40 to 50 percent of Yahoo leagues. We are not going to spend a ton of time on this list. We have discussed most of them already and they are very likely rostered in most active leagues. If one of them is available though they are prime targets for this upcoming weekend.

Our next list features players rostered in fewer than 40 percent of Yahoo leagues.

On the surface Elias Lindholm's deployment doesn't look that great. He hasn't been lining up with David Pastrnak and isn't on that crazy line with Victor Arvidsson and Pavel Zacha. And yet, he somehow has three multi-point games in his last six outings. Exactly the kind of thing we are looking for.

Mats Zuccarello seems a bit of an obvious one here and I am not sure why he is only rostered at 19 percent. He is on a 68-point pace and was on a top line and top power play with Kirill Kaprizov. I am not sure what more a manager might want, but 19 percent rostered is way too low.

If I jump down a bit, basically the same for Patrick Kane. He is doing well at the moment, on a line with Alex Debrincat, on the top power-play, what more is there to want? He seems like an obvious add if he is somehow out there in your league.

Justin Brazeau, though at four percent rostered, is getting multi-point outings in more than 17 percent of his games. He does not have slam dunk deployment but has been making a name for himself all season by putting up big games from third line minutes. As recently as March 30th he put up a three-point game. Does he have a lot of zero-point games? For sure, but if we are looking for a low rostered player who has more than expected big game potential, Brazeau fits like a glove.

That leaves Connor McMichael. He is on a 45-point pace and has bounced around the lineup. As of March 31st, however, he was on an even strength line with Alex Ovechkin and Dylan Strome, and with them on a power-play unit as well. His rates are not quite as impressive as Brazeau's and seem to be a bit more dependent on his line mates having good games, but with those low rostership numbers he is more likely available than most on these lists.

Finally, as a bonus, Anthony Mantha. This is just a PSA that if he is somehow available, he should be high on your list. When ranked by change from expected he is just off the above list, but has been successful all season, and as of March 31st was on the top power-play in Pittsburgh. He has been overlooked a lot this season, so if he is available definitely strongly consider him.

That is all for this week.

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