Welcome back to Goldipucks and the Three Skaters, a play on words of the Goldilocks and the Three Bears story. Instead of there being three bowls of porridge though, I cover three skaters and declare one too hot (i.e., doing unsustainably better than he should), another too cold (i.e., doing unsustainably worse), and a third “just right” (i.e., producing where he should be). In addition, I also assign each a rating of 1-10, indicating how hot (rated 7-10, where 10 is the most unsustainably hot), cold (rated 1-4, where 1 is the most unsustainably cold), or “just right” (rated 4-7, where 5.5 is the most “just right”) he is.

By the time you're reading this, the 2025-26 regular season will be just about fully in the books. That means it's time to shift your focus away from fantasy hockey, at least for a while? Definitely not. Of course, for the NHL teams fortunate enough to have the playoffs, you'll see how their players perform for at least a little while longer. But for those on squads which didn't qualify, there's no more hockey to be played. All the more reason though to cover skaters on non-playoff teams in this week's Goldipucks! On tap are Filip Hronek, Mika Zibanejad, and Nico Hischier. Can you deduce which of the three had a 2025-26 that was too hot, versus whose 2025-26 was too cold, and finally the skater with a 2025-26 that was "just right?" Read on and see if you guessed all three. Stats are current through April 11th games.

Filip Hronek (79 GP, 8G, 39A, 130 SOG, 24:57 TOI, 23 PPPts, 1:55 PP, 40.9% PP%)

With the Wings, Hronek with the definition of a "steady eddie" given that his scoring rate for each of his four seasons there ranged from 38 to 41. But upon arriving in Vancouver, that rate rose to fifty points, followed by a 49-point pace the next season. But for 2024-25, his scoring rate dipped back to 44 points, making some wonder if he really is only a point per every other game type of defenseman after all. This season though he's risen back to a 49-point pace, due in large part to 32 points in the 47 games since Quinn Hughes was traded. Is what we're seeing from Hronek sustainable? In a word, no.

What jumps off the page with respect to Hronek is him setting a career high in PPPts despite having taken the ice for just 40.9% of his team's PP minutes. Of the 15 total points he had before Hughes was traded, only five came on the PP, meaning he did fare much better on the PP once Hughes was out of the picture. Why, then, has Hronek's PP TOI remained so low? Although Hronek took the ice for 70%+ of Vancouver's PP time in 11 of Vancouver's last 20 games after having done just once before then, his PPTOI was brought down by Vancouver not drawing a single penalty in three games of his last 25 games plus several other instances of them not logging much PP time despite him getting the lion's share of it.

Also, for the season as a whole, Hronek's had a 73.1% PP IPP, which, although quite high, is surprisingly not uncharted territory for him, as he's been even higher twice, although he's also been below 65% in all but one of his other seasons. Here's the thing – Hronek is not a PP1 QB. When still with Detroit, and regarded as the team's top rearguard, he never took the ice for even 55% of their PP minutes. Also, he did not make the most of those minutes, as from the 2019-20 through 2021-22 seasons, Hronek cumulatively took the ice for the 26th most PP minutes of any d-man; but his PPPt total put him only tied for 40th. There's also the fact that in the Hughes trade Vancouver received Zeev Buium, regarded as a high upside offensive defenseman. Why, then is Buium not manning PP1? Most likely because the Canucks see this as a lost season and are easing Buium into things. Although Hronek has fared well on the PP post-Hughes, I don't see a universe where he remains the PP1 QB for more than a small portion of 2026-27, if at all; so, in turn, he should shed PPPts.

Hronek's SOG rate also has downticked to 1.6 per game, when it was 1.8 and 1.9 in his prior best seasons. The dip might help explain how Hronek's SH% this season is a good bit above his norm, and thus has likely led to at least a goal or two he shouldn't have had. Also, after a grand total of one SHP in his entire career, Hronek has two in 2025-26. That likewise did not give him a major boost; but again represented another extra point or two which adds up and suggests he won't replicate his post-Hughes level of production.

Hronek's overall IPP is 50.5%, which, although not staggeringly high, is likewise somewhat out of the norm, given he was in the 41%-47% range in his prior Canuck seasons. What is interesting though is despite his SH% being high, his team SH% at 5×5 is a five year low, and this for a player who was in double digits in his past two seasons, including when he did well in 2023-24 but also when he fared poorly in 2024-25. That was when Hughes was with the team, so it's unlikely to return to that level, plus if it did chances are his IPP would fall. Hronek's secondary assist rate is low for him, meaning he may be due to regain some points he could lose via other metrics going back to their norms. His OZ% has been on a downward trend for two seasons, which could cut into points that may have come to him via more secondary assists, for perhaps a wash or close to it.

Hronek is a solid NHL d-man, and a decent fantasy option, but he should not be regarded as a ~50-point producer, making his 2025-26 TOO HOT. With him unlikely to keep a grip on PP1, plus other metrics being more net negative than positive, he gets a rating of 8.25, as he should be counted upon for roughly point per every other game production.

Mika Zibanejad (79GP, 33G, 43, 210 SOG, 20:53 TOI, 34 PPPts, 3:16 PP, 76.1% PP%)

Recently taking the ice for his 1000th regular season game, and turning 34 the day this column goes live, Zibanejad must've missed the memo that he should be slowing rather than thriving. He has just below point per game numbers after two seasons where he looked like his production was waning. Is this scoring rate sustainable? Seemingly yes.

Many felt Ranger skaters would see their production drop once Artemi Panarin, who has been an offensive catalyst for his entire career, was traded to the Kings. Instead, most have done better, including Zibanejad. How can this be? For one, Panarin was a points magnet, with sky high IPPs for most of his career. Thus, although his presence was leading to more scoring, if he was getting points on nearly all of those goals that left fewer for other players. With him gone now, not only are there more points to go around, but also perhaps a realization among players like Zibanejad, Alexis Lafreniere, Adam Fox and J.T. Miller that they need to step up their games without Panarin, and they indeed have done so.

In the case of Zibanejad, the power play has always been his "bread and butter," meaning when he thrived on the PP, he thrived overall as well. This marks his fourth season of 15+ PPGs, with these four seasons, not coincidentally, being the best of his career. It is not unreasonable to foresee him repeating this PP success, since he had 15+ PPGs two seasons in a row as recently as 2021-22 and 2022-23. It is true that Zibanejad has far fewer PPSOG this season than in either of those two campaigns and fewer than all but one forward who had as many PPGs as him this season; however, his 77.5% PP IPP was the third highest of any of the 44 forwards with double digits PPGs, and highest of any outside of the top seven in PPGs, meaning that even if his PP SH% was unsustainably high and his PPG total will fall, chances are many of those "lost" PPGs will be repackaged as PP assists.

Also, that 77.5% PP IPP is not uncharted territory for Zibanejad, as he was actually above 84% in two of his prior five seasons. Moreover, he took the ice for more than 75% of New York's PP minutes, marking the first time he was above that threshold in his career. Yet it has translated to only 3:16 of PPTOI per game. And looking at the other forwards who are likewise above 75%, all but two have taken the ice for at least 20 more seconds of PP time per game. Also, the Rangers have the fifth fewest PP opportunities of any NHL team, after ranking eighth worst in 2024-25 and in the middle of the pack in 2023-24. Chances are he will see more PPTOI per game next season if he still takes the ice for 75%+ of New York's man advantage minutes, which seems to be all but assured.

Speaking of IPPs, Zibanejad's overall IPP is a strong 71.0%. Interestingly, it was 70.5% last season when he did not produce well. But the fact it was over 70%, plus was 77.8% for 2022-23, shows he still very much has a nose for scoring even at his age, and also bodes well for him to produce as he is now when it comes time for next season, especially without Panarin grabbing points like he did in the past.

Looking at other metrics, Zibanejad's secondary assists rate is in his normal range, as is his team SH% at 5×5. What is good to see though is his OZ% is 52.6%, which, although not that high, is only the second time it has been over 50% in the last eight seasons, and for all his point per game seasons it was under 50%. Also, the Rangers were a very lousy team this season, meaning they started more shifts in the defensive zone than usual, such that for Zibanejad's OZ% to be this high is a sign the team was going out of its way to put him in more positions to score. If this continues, it should help him keep up this pace next season. Also, Zibanejad has only two SHPs this season, after having 4-6 in five of the last six seasons, so either he goes back to normal and gets more SHPs or, if not, then he's likely not playing as much on the PK, and, in turn, more likely to score.

Why is it that I'm not suggesting that Zibanejad will see his scoring rise? Maily it's the combination of an abnormally high SH% but low SOG rate as compared to prior seasons that saw him produce this well. His career SH% coming into this season was 13.0%, and only once was it ever higher, plus in all but one of his best seasons his SOG per game was 3.1 or higher per game. Yes, a higher SH% alongside a low SOG rate makes sense; but in the one season where he previously was a point per game player and didn't average 3.1+ SOG per game, his SH% was a more reasonable 13.2%. Based on what was noted above, the elevated percentage is a result of him having such a high SH% on the PP, making it less of a concern though that his scoring will crater, since even if his PPGs drop he could see his PPPts not fall by much. Also, despite such a high SH%, Zibs has hit a total of 12 posts and crossbars, which is a bit higher than it was for any of his prior point per game seasons, and means also that he was inches away from even more goals, and, in turn, making his high SH% less glaring.

Although he's getting up there in years as well as games played, Zibanejad looks like he's not slowing. And his metrics as a whole suggest that his 2025-26 was JUST RIGHT, and he should be counted upon for about point per game numbers again next season, giving him a rating of 5.25 and reminding poolies not only can bad teams have solid fantasy performers, but also that when a player – like Panarin – who's supposed to make others better leaves, it can result in others actually doing better due to them upping their effort and/or that player no longer being around to syphon away points.

Nico Hischier (8037P, 26G, A, 205 SOG, 20:44 TOI, 22 PPPts, 3:02 PP, 72.8% PP%)

A former first overall pick, Hischier had lofty expectations but fell well short until finally seeming to piece things together in 2022-23 to the tune of 83 points. But he failed to parlay that into greater success, with scoring rates of 75 and 77 the next two seasons. For 2025-26 though, he's seen his scoring fall even further, raising questions as to whether he's still as good as he had been. Is Hischier indeed on a downward slide? Definitely not.

On the surface, Hischier should be doing at least as well as he has the past two seasons, as his TOIs, SH%, and SOG rates are all within normal ranges. Yes, his best season his SOG rate was 3.0, and since then he's never been above 2.6; however, that likely means he isn't quite a point per game player. His overall IPP and his secondary assist rate for 2025-26 are also comparable to recent seasons, as is his OZ%. Why then is he performing markedly worse than in his past two seasons?

This is the perfect example of the importance of not just looking at one's personal SH%, but also the team's SH% at 5×5 with them on the ice, as for Hischier it was a paltry 5.9%, after never once being below 8.2% and in fact being between 9.0 and 10.8% in three of the last four seasons. How low is 5.9%? Of 406 forwards who played 40+ games this season, only 19 have a lower 5×5 team SH%. How many of those 19 are producing as well as Hischier? Not only zero, but none has anywhere close to even a point per every other game scoring rate. In fact, Hischier is the only forward not on the Devils to score at a 60+ point pace this season despite having a team SH% lower than 7.8%, which, for added perspective, ranked that player – Sam Reinhart – barely within the bottom 100 of the 406. What that means is Hischier did amazingly despite huge scoring headwinds. Also, any worries as to this being a downward trend are allayed by the fact he has so much data from which to draw in the form of past seasons, and how atypically low this number is.

Another small factor is Hischier has zero SHPs, having had at least two in five of the past six seasons. Beyond that, for the second season in a row Hischier hit double digits in PPGs. Yet whereas last season that rightfully led to him having a higher than usual SH%, this season it did not. Both this season and last, Hischier has virtually identical ratios of SOG from 0-15 feet, 16-30 feet, and 31+ feet. But last season he had 18 PPGs on 55 PPSOG, whereas for this season he has more PPSOG – 66 – yet fewer PPGs. Although his PP SH% last season was too high, it's too low this season, as looking at the 26 forwards with more PPGs, 15 have at least ten more PPSOG. There too he likely should've had at least a few more points in the form of PPGs.

Moreover, the Devils had 61 PPGs in 2024-25, which was good for fourth in the entire NHL. This season they sit at 41, making them a middle of the pack team. Right there that's a marked decrease; and given that Hischier's PP IPP this season was 61.1%%, which is even higher than his rates in his previous five seasons, he "lost" quite a few PPPts. And if we consider that 61 PPGs might be higher than they figure to get again soon, they should do better, with Hischier, given his unquestioned spot on PP1, there to reap the benefits.

Those who were concerned that Hischier's production might be trending downward can be reassured, as this season looks to have been an aberration from a production standpoint due to a miniscule team SH at 5×5 and lost PPGs. As such he was TOO COLD. Next season he should be back to his normal 75-80 point ways, giving him a rating of 2.25.

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Questions for Mailbag 

My monthly mailbag has room for plenty more questions. To get yours questions to me, send (1) a private message to “rizzeedizzee” via the DobberHockey Forums, or (2) an email to [email protected] with “Roos Mailbag” as the subject line.