With the regular season in the books, it's time– for better or, unfortunately for me in the last couple of seasons, worse – to look back at my Fearless Forecasts for 2025-16. For the 2024-25 campaign just one of my forecasts came true, although I was close on a few, which is why I assign each forecast a letter grade, since getting one wrong does not always mean I deserve an F. How did I fare this time around? Read on to find out, although before doing so please remember these are called fearless forecasts for a reason, meaning I try to go more out on a limb than most prognosticators, while still having reasonable bases for each forecast.

To make the most of this column, I'm not just going to list the forecasts and results, but also cover what lessons can be learned in hindsight whether I got the forecast right or wrong. In short, even if I my forecast was incorrect, the reasoning as to why not should be helpful for poolies in making fantasy decisions on a going forward basis.

Lastly, at the end of the column I'll see how well you did in predicting which of the forecasts would or would not come true, as there was a poll where you could vote on the outcomes. Onto the forecasts!

1) Neal Pionk will have a higher scoring rate than Josh Morrissey

Result – Morrissey's scoring rate shrank, but just by a little, while Pionk had his worst season ever

Grade – F

Lessons Learned – Season totals often are less predictive than trends; entrenched d-men tend to stay entrenched; there's always the risk of a letdown factor after a player inks a long-term deal; salary can matter, but less so when one player's salary is only lower due to being a bargain by virtue of a deal signed several seasons ago; scoring rates are less predictive the fewer games they cover

As you can see, there are lots of lessons to be learned here. My reasoning in making this forecast was Pionk had inked a new deal that led to him earning more than Morrissey. But with that came a risk of Pionk becoming complacent having already locked in the big contract, which may have played a role in his results. Also, Pionk earned more than Morrissey only as a result of Morrissey having signed his deal before he became a 60+ point d-man. Do indeed factor salaries into how you assess players; but also take note of when they signed their deals and if they are now a bargain.

Also, Morrissey, despite decreasing production, remains, at least for now, a 60+ point d-man. And for me to think Winnipeg would take Morrissey's "spot" away from him due to Pionk happening to ink a deal that pays him more, and with only one season of PP success long ago, was indeed farfetched when I think of it now. That's not to say things like I predicted can't happen, as look no further than Darren Raddysh in Tampa; but predicting them is a losing endeavor far more often than not.

Lastly, in making the prediction I focused on Pionk having scored at a 46-point rate in 2024-25, which was well higher than his norm. But not only was that a 46-point pace (39 points in 69 games), rather than 46 actual points, but 19 of Pionk's 39 total points in 2024-25 came in his first 23 games, meaning he had just 17 in his last 46 contests. When a player has one quarter far and away better than the rest, that is a concern, and even more so when it's the first quarter. So don't just focus on a player's total points, but look at when they got those points, and in how many games, plus if they were trending much better or worse as the season wound down, since it is likelier that what a player was doing later in the season will be more predictive than what he did early on, especially if they were vastly different scoring rates.

2) At least 20 NHL teams will have a defenseman with a higher scoring rate than Miro Heiskanen

Result – Heiskanen had a superb season, finishing in the top ten in defenseman scoring overall

Grade – F

Lessons Learned – Great players can have off seasons; a player is more "for real" if they've produced at an elite rate more than once; yet again, salaries matter less when comparing players if one inked a deal longer ago and is now a bargain; player comparables are quite often a reliable indicator

What prompted me to make this forecast was Thomas Harley's new hefty contract and him having had some success, plus Heiskanen's shaky 2024-25 season. But just like Pionk earning more than Morrissey after he inked his deal ending up not mattering, Harley's new contract paying him more than Heiskanen didn't prevent Heiskanen from remaining "the guy" for the Stars, likely due to the fact that if Heiskanen was to have signed a deal at the same time as Harley, it would have been for considerably more.

Just like Morrissey had two strong seasons, making him harder to displace and it more difficult to realistically see him doing worse, Heiskanen had two great seasons before his subpar 2024-25. Had he just done so once, then maybe my fears, both of him not rising back to his prior heights or for Harley to become Dallas's top rearguard, would have been more realistic. Instead, Heiskanen's 2024-25 looks like a bump in the road, rather than a reason to have pressed the panic button.

I cited plenty of data to support my forecast, but I also admitted that when looking at other rearguards who, since 2000-01 and, like Heiskanen, had a season of 70+ points by age 23 and not later than their fifth NHL campaign, the list is filled with amazing talent like Cale Makar, Quinn Hughes, Rasmus Dahlin, Adam Fox, Erik Karlsson and even Mike Green. Seeing that should have made me realize the numbers I had cited were more to support my conclusion than to form proper bases for it.

3) Nikolaj Ehlers will fail to reach a 70+ point scoring pace

Result – Despite gains in both PP and overall TOI, Ehlers finished with a 71-point scoring pace, down from his 75-point rate in 2024-25 but nevertheless making the forecast not come true

Grade – B

Lessons Learned – What may be seen as untapped potential could instead be a realistic ceiling, especially for someone who's played many seasons; not every big-name UFA will get top tier deployment; one's team, and how they deploy their forwards, matters a lot to one's performance

I thought I'd nailed this one, but Ehlers had a point per game Q4, raising his scoring rate just above 70. Despite being a prize UFA, and inking a large deal with Carolina, he saw only modest gains in PP and overall TOI, and produced at a worse rate than 2024-25. So although some thrive on new teams, for a player with ten seasons already under his belt, and who was never was a minute eater, it cuts against him reaching new heights despite going to a new team and being paid considerably more.

One thing I got right though was how Ehlers going to Carolina would not do him many favors. That's because Carolina spreads around ice time quite a bit, with even those on PP1 not getting heaps of man advantage minutes. The result is a lower ceiling for even their most talented players. In fact, the last Carolina point per game winger was Ray Whitney in 2006-07.

4) Travis Konecny will score at a 90+ point pace

Result – Konecny produced at a 72-point rate, down from 76 in 2024-25

Grade – F

Lessons Learned – Don't base predictions mainly on one metric, no matter how much of a predictor that metric might seem to be; coaching philosophies will affect – for good or bad – the production of pretty much all players, regardless of talent; IPPs are great indicators of those who have a nose for scoring, but if there isn't enough scoring even superb IPPs won't translate to elite production

The driving force behind this forecast was the fact Konecny had nearly as many posts and crossbars hit last season – 20 – as total goals – 24. I figured if even half of those got repackaged as goals, then he'd be a shoo in to score at a 90+ point rate. The problem is although posts and crossbars hit can indeed be an indicator of improved goal scoring the following season, it's not always predictive. Me placing so much weight on that metric was at best iffy.

Also, I pointed to Konecny's history of great IPPs; and sure enough even this season both his overall IPP and IPP on the PP were 70% or higher. But if not enough goals are being scored, then no matter how much of a points magnet a player is there are only so many points he can get.

In terms of scoring, I also figured how could things not get better offensively under Rick Tocchet as compared to the way they were with John Tortorella? Well, they didn't get worse, but they didn't really get better either, as Philly scored 232 goals last season and 240 this season, for the tiniest improvement. What I did was fall into the trap of thinking anything has to be better than Torts in terms of offensive impact; yet Tocchet has a track record of his teams not scoring, as in six full seasons he was coach on three different teams, four times they ranked 19th or worse in goals scored, plus 14th one time, and 6th once. Sure enough, Philly was 21st this season, or right in Tocchet's normal range. In short, coaches tend to stick to their guns; so if one hasn't been behind the bench for many high scoring teams in the past, chances are he won't be this time around either.

5) Each of the Caps' six highest scoring forwards from 2024-25 will see a scoring rate decrease

Result – Five of the six did see a drop, with Alex Ovechkin and Dylan Strome doing far worse; but Tom Wilson rose from a 66 to 71 point pace

Grade – B+

Lessons Learned – A team's SH% and TOIs are predictive metrics, but banking on an entire top six doing worse is likely a stretch even if it seems all but assured everyone will falter; do account for a let down factor if one is applicable

How well Caps forwards fared in 2024-25 given that only one played over 18:00 per game, plus the team as a whole shooting 12.6%, made it abundantly clear they would be unable to replicate their success. Even still, it takes a lot for all six forwards on a team's top two ES lines to do worse, and indeed one player – Wilson – apparently missed the memo and actually had a scoring uptick, but it took abnormally high IPPs and secondary assists for that to occur. Still, betting against an entire team's top six is unlikely to yield success.

The other key takeaway is last season Washington played amidst the excitement of Ovi's pursuit of, and, ultimately, breaking the all-time goal scoring record. With no such motivation this season, it's not surprising there was a let-down factor. When else can there be let downs? If a team goes deep in the playoffs but likely overperformed, that will give them a shorter offseason and perhaps hurt them come the following campaign. Or a team like Florida, who looked like a dynasty in the making, can do worse when the effect of so many deep runs in successive seasons takes a cumulative toll.

6) No Lightning forward other than Nikita Kucherov will score at a point per game rate

Result – Brandon Hagel went from a 90 point scoring rate to 85, while Brayden Point's scoring fell from 85 to 67, but Jake Guentzel's rose from 82 to 89

Grade – C-

Lessons Learned – When there is a superstar and points magnet the likes of Nikita Kucherov on a team, it will lead to goals being scored, but often not as many points to go around, hurting the production of others; beware of players who have a sky high SH% or are too dependent, or not dependent enough, on the PP for scoring; sometimes star players need time to adjust to a new team

Yes, Point's season was interrupted by injury; however, he wasn't thriving before he got hurt, and after an initial points binge once he returned, he was subpar again. The lesson there is when you rely upon 30+ PPPts and 20%+ SH% each year, and still are seeing your scoring rate drop, those are not good signs for continued elite production. As for Hagel, he is a fine player; however, he had 90 points last season despite only 11 on the PP. Of the 172 other instances dating back to 2000-01 of a forward tallying 90+ points, the next lowest PPPt total was 20, or nearly double that of Hagel. In short, too much or too little dependance on PPPts are both of equal concern.

Hagel did worse despite playing far more with Kucherov than last season. Also, Anthony Cirelli was the third member of their line at ES, and he didn't improve versus last season. How could that be? It's because Kucherov checks both of the most important fantasy boxes, which is goals occur when he's on the ice, and he finds a way to almost always factor into the scoring. Although lots of scoring occurs, there are usually only at most two points for the other four players on the ice, and Tampa happens to have defensemen who can grab some of those points. Don't always assume if a forward is tethered to someone as elite as Kucherov that it will be a net benefit to them.

With Guentzel, last season he managed only to produce at exactly a point per game rate, so I felt that perhaps he did not mesh with Kucherov. In fact he might not have, as they predominantly didn't play together at ES. Despite that though, and similar metrics to last season, Guentzel did better. What this seems to be is a case of a star player taking time to adjust to a new team. Unlike Ehlers, Guentzel is a star, having produced above a 90-point rate twice previously.

7) Montreal will finish in the top 5 in the NHL in goals scored

Result – They rose from 17th last season to 6th for 2025-26, missing the top five by only five goals

Grade – A-

Lessons Learned – The more the signs of a team being on the rise, the more predictive they tend to be; an upward trend in the PP is an especially good indication of a team being poised to improve overall.

I feel proud about this one, since many thought the Habs either were not going to find a way to put all the pieces of the puzzle together, or, if they did, it wouldn't occur for another couple of seasons. But to me, the signs were there for them connecting the necessary dots in 2025-26.

For one, their PP was already showing signs of starting to click, rising from 12.7% in 2023-24 to 17.5% in 2024-25. Their players, other than Nick Suzuki, all had ample room for more organic PP production. They also had improved their team SH% to 11.6% in 2024-25, up from 10.2% in 2023-24. They were only 30th in total SOG, leaving ample room for growth there. Beyond that, Suzuki and Cole Caufield both were improving every year, with still organic room to do so even further, which they did. And although neither Kirby Dach nor Patrik Laine contributed, their youngsters stepped up. There isn't much more to it than that.

8) MacKenzie Blackwood will have a GAA above 3.00, a SV% under .900, and a QS% under 50%

Result – Blackwood was a major disappointment, but did manage a 2.51 GAA, 60.5% QS%, and .903 SV%, although that paled in comparison to Scott Wedgewood's 2.07, 65.9% and .919.

Grade – C

Lessons Learned – Bad goalies tend to remain bad, and a team can only make them so much better; don't underestimate the impact of a player missing the start of the season; goalie salaries matter

Overall, Blackwood's numbers were similar to last season, except for a much lower SV%. But let's not forget last season he played a third of his games for the then lowly Sharks. And to show just how subpar Blackwood was, we need only look at the comparative numbers of Wedgewood, a career backup, plus Wedgewood's GSAA leading the entire league at 25.05, while Blackwood was at 6.62.

Would things have been different if Blackwood didn't play his first game until November 1st, while in the interim Wedgewood thrived? Quite possibly, as not only would Wedgewood have been unlikely to get as entrenched as he did, but Blackwood played only two AHL games before being brought back to the NHL, and showed lots of rust. For any player, missing the start of the season is not ideal; but when it comes to goalies, it's often even more impactful.

Lastly, although Blackwood was signed to be the starter, the fact he earns only $5.3M made it so the Avs could afford to not reinstall Blackwood as a true #1. If he was paid $8M or more, like many starters, the team likely would have done all it could to get him on track. But $5.3M was not high enough to have forced their hand. When you draft goalies who make less than $6M these days, know that doing so comes with a far higher risk of them being pushed aside if they somehow falter.

9) Jake Sanderson will average at least a point per game

Result – Sanderson's ended at a 66 point pace, up from 59, but well below the point per game level

Grade – D

Lessons Learned – Point per game output for defensemen is harder than it seems, and it's made all the more difficult when a defenseman logs lots of SH duty, doesn't have enough PP TOI, and has an OZ% that's too low

Would Sanderson have hit the point per game mark if he hadn't gotten hurt? In hindsight, probably not, as he had dug himself a hole in the form of "only" 29 points in his first 40 games. Still, it is worth noting that he posted 25 points in his final 27 games, or not far below point per game output, so he should still be considered an elite defenseman. But in Sanderson's case, that doesn't likely mean achieving point per game scoring.

For one, it's worth noting too that just four defensemen had point per game outputs this season, which was up from three in 2024-25 but down from five in 2023-24. Basically, we're looking at something accomplished by at most a handful of players each season, although it might seem like more since those who do it get so much attention.

The key though is that in comparison with defensemen who scored at a point per game rate this season, or in the past, Sanderson's deployment doesn't seem conducive to achieving the feat. His TOI per game was just under 25:00 per game, which put him in the top ten for TOI average among all d-men and was right around the same, if not more, than most of the top d-men scorers this season. So far so good. That's where the similarities end. Sanderson was saddled with 2:57 of PK time per game. Yes, Zack Werenski and Cale Makar skated on the PK too, but at least a full minute less than Sanderson, who also only took the ice for 62.4% of Ottawa's PP time, when the best of the best for rearguard scoring were at 75% or above. Not surprisingly, this led to Sanderson's OZ% not being very high, 49.2% to be exact. Contrast that with the top defensemen in terms of scoring, who were 55% or higher. The lesson is that talent can only get a defenseman so far when it comes to scoring if, as was the case with Sanderson, there are several barriers that stand in the way of him producing at the most elite level. 

10) Macklin Celebrini will score at a 100+ point pace

Result – He finished with 115 points

Grade – A

Lessons Learned – Player comparables, especially for younger players, can be very telling; don't think a player on a "bad" team can't score at an elite level; centers who shoot the puck are more likely to be higher scorers; IPP remains a reliable predictor of greatness

Given all Celebrini has done this season, many might feel this wasn't a fearless forecast. Keep in mind that only six other teens posted 100+ points in NHL history, and the last to do so was Sidney Crosby, who scored at a 92-point pace as a rookie, versus a 74-point pace for Celebrini.

But Celebrini's rookie numbers, particularly his combination of shooting and scoring, put him in the company of just Wayne Gretzky and Dale Hawerchuk, both of whom hit the century mark as a teen. And although past comparables are not always future predictors, when it's something which hasn't been done except for a couple of times, and by such great players, that can be very telling.

Also, even as a rookie and on a bad team, Celebrini shot the puck a lot, plus had elite IPPs. Yes, the best players on bad teams figure to have high IPPs; however, Celebrini's were superb, and occurred despite the team shooting just 8.4% at 5×5 with him on the ice in 2024-25, a number that could only rise.

Will we be able to predict the next Celebrini? Tough to say; but when looking for him, the focus should be on player comparables and factors that suggest greatness.

11) Auston Matthews will set a career high in points

Result – Matthews had by far his worst NHL season

Grade – F, only because I can't go lower than that

Lessons Learned – Small sample sizes are unreliable in general, but even more so when used to try to predict what will occur under different circumstances; some players are stars in larger part than expected because of the talent around them

This was a bad prediction, period. It was premised on me thinking Matthews not only would be healthy going into 2025-26, but also eager to show he can be a star without Mitch Marner by his side. In particular, I relied on Matthews having scored as well in 2021-22 without Marner on the ice as with him on the ice, plus Matthews having produced 17 points in 11 games missed by Marner in 2023-24.

There were two major flaws there. First, in looking at just 17 games from 2023-24, I was essentially grasping at straws. Also, although Marner was on the ice for "only" 74% of Matthews' points in the 2021-22 season, that was a long time ago and still 74% is a big chunk, plus for 2024-25 Marner was on the ice for a very high 87% of Matthews' points. In short, in trying to paint it that Matthews could thrive without Marner, I had to reach back too far (2021-22) and look at too small a sample size (2023-24), making my prediction a major reach.

To sum it up, it looks more like I came to a conclusion, then found evidence to back it up. But what should happen is the opposite, namely data pointing to a conclusion.

12) Gabriel Landeskog will have a higher scoring rate than Martin Necas

Result – The Avs had a far better record in games Landeskog played, but Necas more than doubled Landeskog's scoring rate

Grade – F, only because I can't go lower than that

Lessons Learned – On ice importance often does not translate to high production; players coming back from major injuries, especially older players, are less likely to meet with success; some players take a full season with a team to hit their stride

This was another case where I had a hunch, and tried to justify it. In doing so, as with the Matthews prediction, I had to reach to try to explain my logic, plus ignored that Landeskog would not be the same player as he way, and Necas, despite doing much worse following a strong start to 2024-25, including after coming to Colorado, is a top player who the Avs were going to all they could to see succeed.

Also, the fact Necas did not hit the ground running when coming to Colorado last season could be attributed to joining a new team midseason, like Guentzel did. Sure enough, when with the team for an entire season, including training camp and preseason, he thrived.

Moreover, Colorado realized that Landeskog's biggest importance was no longer going to be reflected on the score sheet. I should've known that would be the most likely outcome, since this was a player returning from a very serious injury, and at age 33. But I saw how Patrick Kane had succeeded at a level not seen before when looking at players who came back from major injuries. Of course, Kane was a much better scorer than Landy all along, so I should not have likened the two.

Again, when I look back at this, it feels like wishful thinking which I had to stretch to even come close to justifying. If you find yourself falling into a trap of making a convoluted prediction, or one that goes so far against the grain, stop yourself and be more objective.

**********

In all, just one correct, but several were quite close. Yes, several misses were very, very bad misses, but hopefully I'll learn from my own lessons. How did you do with your votes? Well, the one I got correct was among those which received the fewest votes, and one of my biggest misses (Heiskanen) got the third most votes. But the two highest vote totals went to two of the near misses, and the other huge misses were among those getting the fewest votes. As a whole, you did quite well!

Questions for Mailbag 

My next monthly mailbag has room for plenty more questions. To get your questions to me, you can either send (1) a private message to “rizzeedizzee” via the DobberHockey Forums, or (2) an email to [email protected] with “Roos Mailbag” as the subject line.