Welcome back to another edition of the Roos Lets Loose monthly mailbag, where I answer your fantasy hockey questions by giving advice that should be useful to all poolies even if they don't own the specific players being discussed. As a reminder, if you want your fantasy hockey question(s) answered in the next mailbag, check out the end of the column, where I explain the ways to get it/them to me as well as the details you should provide when sending. The earlier you send a question the more likely it is to be included in the mailbag, and the deeper dive I can provide with my reply.

Question #1 (from Chris)

I’m in a 13 team league where we keep 13 players and draft 10 each season. Trades can include future draft picks as well as FA Moves (every team gets 10 per season). Each day’s roster must include 16 total players – 9F, 6D, 1G. It's also a Cap league, using the NHL Cap plus a 10% bonus. Categories are G, A, +/-, SHG, SOG, PIM, W, L, GA, SV, SHO.  

I did not have a successful season; but, due to finishing in the bottom five, I'm part of the draft lottery. This was my roster as of the end of the season.

F: Nico Hischier, Jasper Bratt, Matt Boldy, Alex DeBrincat, Matty Beniers, Zach Benson, Ivan Demidov, Oliver Kapanen, Beckett Sennecke, Emmitt Finnie, Michael Misa, Alex Laferriere
D: Simon Edvinsson, Bowen Byram, Owen Power, Zayne Parekh, Rasmus Sandin, Logan Stanley, Jacob Trouba, Brock Faber
G: Jusse Saros, Yaroslav Askarov, Carter Hart

I made one notable trade this year, swapping Quinton Byfield for Bowen Byram, and picked up Faber and Kapanen on the FA market (along with Finnie, Trouba, and Stanley). Hart was a throw-in as part of a deal I made last month for draft upside.

Looking ahead to next season and beyond, my priority is to continue building up my defense, and when looking at my 13 potential keepers, I'm considering: Boldy, Demidov, Sennecke, DeBrincat, Misa, Bratt, Hischier, Edvinsson, Byram, Faber, Parekh, Saros, and Askarov. On the bubble are Benson, Power, and Beniers. Benson is likely redraftable although maybe not if the Sabres continue to do well. He would've been on pace for around 52 points over 82 games this year if healthy. I am a big fan of his and feel with first or second line minutes (and PP time) he could easily be a 60-70 point guy. Beniers plays first line and PP1, but feel that he just isn’t a 70-80 point player and I could use his salary to help draft (or trade for) a defenseman. I made a deal last year for Power and if indeed Buffalo is breaking through, he may still be worth thinking about as well.

I'm also considering making one of Bratt, Hischier, or DeBrincat available in the off season for draft upside, but essentially this is where I’m at. What are your thoughts on my potential keeper list, noting that I plan to compete for a money place (top 3) in the next 2-3 years?

Let's start with goalies. Carter Hart has looked good under John Tortorella, who is a defensive-minded coach, which can only help Hart. I can get behind keeping Askarov, in hopes he figures things out and the Sharks do even better in seasons to come. It might be that Saros is not a keep. With L and GA as negatives, he is a concern given his worsening trends in the form of both a GAA that has risen, and SV% that has shrank five seasons in a row. I'll cover Saros in more detail below when I answer Question #5. I think at this point Saros would be untradable in this league, so I'm leaning toward keeping Hart and Askarov and tossing Saros back into the draft pool.

For defense, Buffalo thrived in the second half; but Rasmus Dahlin is a "the guy" d-man and neither Power nor Byran did better despite the team's success. Power was a former first overall pick, and Byram fourth overall; but barring an injury to Dahlin they'll get PP scraps and both are low volume shooters. Maybe keep one, but not both. Edvinsson is not better offensively, and gets even less PP time, but he does rack up PIM and he's far cheaper than either of the Buffalo rearguards. Faber is for sure a keep though, even at his price. The arrival of Quinn Hughes had a spillover benefit to Faber, and that should continue. Whether you keep any of Power, Byram and Edvinsson will depend on how many forwards you keep. Parekh has lure, but looked lost at the NHL level, so I'm tossing him back into the draft pool. 

For forwards, I'm with you on not keeping Laferriere, as although he had 16 points in 21 Q4 games, with over 20 minutes of ice time and decent PP minutes, his full season totals disguise this, making him a viable redraft. Finnie had a nice start to the season, but quickly fell out of favor. What's interesting is, for someone who hits as much as he does, he gets barely any PIM. He's for sure not a keep. I'm with you on Beniers when you have Benson as an option. I think Seattle needs a new coach and a more offense-friendly philosophy, as otherwise Beniers can only do so much. Thus, with this a cap league and what Benson has shown, I'm opting for him over Beniers as well. Sennecke, Demidov and Misa are easy foundation keeps, and Hischier, Bratt, DeBrincat and Boldy are also locks. I also wouldn't trade any of them, as the NJ guys are coming off subpar season, hurting their value, and the other two are rock solid.

That gives you Askarov, Hart, Faber, Benson, Sennecke, Demidov, Misa, Hischier, Bratt, DeBrincat and Boldy, for a total of 11. Given that, I'm opting for Edvinsson, for cost and PIM reasons, and whichever of Power and Byram you prefer. I'd choose Power, since he had a better OZ% and because of his former first overall pedigree, which should ensure he stays in the mix. Or you could keep Laferriere and hope he builds on his Q4, as he is just above his 200-game breakout threshold, and a cap bargain. Good luck!

Question #2 (from Mario)

I'm in a 12 team H2H league where four players can be kept and 14 more are drafted. Rosters are 2C, 2RW, 2LW, 4D, 1Util, 2G, plus 5 bench and 2 IR+. Categories are G, A, PPPts, PIM, HIT, BLK, SOG, +/-, W, GAA, SV%. There are a minimum of three goalie appearances per week, plus each team can make up to five trades and transactions per week.

I finished in third and my first three draft picks are 15th, 34th, and 39th overall. My end of season roster was as follows. Who would your four keeps be?

F: Mikko Rantanen, Cutter Gauthier, Ivan Demidov, Andrei Svechnikov, Dylan Guenther, Sam Bennett, Wyatt Johnston, Sam Reinhart.

D: Victor Hedman, Jake Sanderson, Mackenzie Weegar, Mattias Samuelson.

G: Linus Ullmark, Joel Hofer.

Your draft picks are below average, as you have one pick in the first 33, and it's 15th, which means not in the first round. With 44 players being kept by other teams, and one pick in the first 33, and a total of 216 players owned in total, you need to nail your keepers.

For sure you don't keep a goalie. Heck, I'm not sure more than a couple will end up being kept in the entire league, if even that many. The two easy keeps are Rantanen and Johnston. They are proven performers and despite their playoff failure Dallas figures to remain a high scoring team, with these two reaping the benefits. After that it gets cloudier. Bennett is great for these categories, but Svechnikov is essentially as good, plus was a point per gamer after a slow start.

In Gauthier, Guenther, and Demidov, you have three who are doing well, but also have major upside. Gauthier seems a cut above given his SOG and production rates. I have concerns as to his ice time being so low, although that means his per 60 minute numbers were fantastic, with a Pts/60 rate higher than the likes of Kyle Connor, Kirill Kaprizov, Tage Thompson, Connor Bedard, plus Johnston and Svechnikov, and with a SOG/60 being tops in the entire NHL, although for what it's worth five of the top six in SOG per 60 were below a point per game, which is a concern. Still, of the three, he'd be my pick.

That leaves Reinhart, who'd be the safest keep, as his "spot" is secure and he almost managed a point per game despite Florida doing far worse and not having Aleksander Barkov all season and Matthew Tkachuk for most of it. Although he has no real upside, his floor is above all three youngsters.

Even if Darren Raddysh leaves, Hedman is not a keep, since age and games played seem to have finally caught up to him. Weegar might have been tempting if he was still with Calgary; however, in Utah he has no shot at PP1, plus his HIT and BLK rates, which once were nearly unmatched for a defenseman who produced above a point per every other game rate, are still great but not so otherworldly as they had been. Sanderson, on the other hand, keeps getting better, and was barely below a point per game after returning from injury.

We have Rantanen and Johnston as definites, and Svechnikov, Gauthier, Reinhart, and Sanderson as the possibilities for the two other spots. I think Sanderson has to be one, as not only has he continued to improve but given your lack of early picks I worry you'll either have to reach for a d-man at 15th or risk not having one of Sanderson's caliber. Or to put it another way, the replacement cost for not keeping Sanderson is higher than for one of those other forwards, as there will be more of them from which to choose in the draft. For the last forward spot it's tough, since Svech had looked considerably worse for the prior two seasons and thus far in the playoffs, and does not get heaps of TOI. With three "banger" categories though, in the end I'm going with Svech, and hoping he can parlay what he did at the end of 2025-26 into becoming a point per game player, or close enough to it such that his peripherals make him more valuable in this league than Reinhart is and Gauthier is, and will be. Good luck!

Question #3 (from Mike)

I'm in a keep 8 league with 14 teams and skater categories of G, A, PIM, +/-, BLK, SOG, PPP, and FO%. There are no restrictions on how many can be kept at a certain position, although I'm not keeping a goalie as there should be plenty of them to draft.

I picked up Porter Martone for the final two weeks of the fantasy playoffs and he was amazing. And he's looked superb in the playoffs as well. I feel like I'm overthinking it, but am I crazy to contemplate keeping him? Is he a better keep than other options available to me like Adrian Kempe, Filip Forsberg or Mikhail Sergachev? My definite keepers would be Cale Makar, Kyle Connor, Jake Guentzel, Mark Scheifele, Tage Thompson, and Dylan Guenther. So I would need to choose two of Kempe, Forsberg, Sergachev, and Martone. What's your advice?

You're not wrong for considering Martone. He's looked superb, plus his high-octane offense, mixed with physical play, is likely to keep him in the good graces of a coach like Rick Tocchet. The issue is even if Tocchet leans on Martone, that likely would mean only 17 minutes or so per game, and about 2:30 on the PP. It's difficult to be impactful with that deployment. Look no further than Travis Konecny, who saw his TOI drop by 90 seconds under Tocchet, and, with that, his scoring. Although Martone has been great from the start, the Flyers have lots of wingers, so it's also no guarantee he keeps his "spot."

Still, is he worth the risk given the other options? I agree of course with keeping Makar, Connor and Thompson. Scheifele I might try trading, as it's called selling high for a reason, and when will his value ever be higher? Yes, you'd lose a Connor and Scheifele stack; however, the Jets shot 12.9% at 5×5 with Scheifele on the ice in 2025-26, up from 11.0% in 2024-25, this from a player who'd been above 10.0% only once since 2016-17. I think Scheifele, due to the style he plays and his pinpoint SH%, will be able to maintain an 85- to 90-point scoring rate; but 103 points at age 33, when he's never previously even been above 87 points, is glaring. I'd try to package him with Kempe, who looks to have reached a point where his name value exceeds his actual value, making him perfect to trade away as well.

If you make that deal and get back one player in return for those two, then you keep that player, and have to choose which one not to keep among Martone, Sergachev, Guentzel, Forsberg, and Guenther. With blocks but not hits counting, and Forsberg turning 32 over the summer, he seems like enough of a safe drop to justify rolling the dice with Martone. Not only is Forsberg, as a rough and tumble player, at risk of his production cratering now that he's over 30, but both of the last two seasons he's started slow, then only salvaged his season with a strong second half. I worry one of these seasons, he'll just not hit his stride. I'm willing to roll the dice with Martone over Forsberg. If you're not able to trade Scheifele and Kempe though, I'd keep Scheifele and Martone, with Kempe also someone who, at this point, I'm okay with tossing into the draft in hopes of hitting a home run with Martone. Good luck!

Question #4 (from Me)

Given the very disappointing season he just had, where should Auston Matthews be drafted? Is he a safe bet to rebound, if not to how great he was, then at least for 45-50+ goals and enough assists to get him to a scoring rate in the 90s? Or are his days as a truly elite player likely over?

The extent to which Matthews disappointed last season cannot be understated, with his worst SOG rate since 2018-19 and worst scoring rate ever. Even after the US won Gold in the Olympics, during which Matthews posted seven points in six games, he returned to tally just five points in nine games before being shut down for the season.

Let's not forget that while Matthews saw his scoring rate shrink from 95 points in 2024-25 to just 72 this season, his former linemate Mitch Marner's rate dropped from 103 to 81. The difference though is how elite Matthews had been, plus Matthews receiving far more attention due to playing in the biggest hockey market in the NHL. Still, he was not alone in struggling after the two were separated.

Are there reasons for optimism? Matthews' SH% was his lowest ever, and had he instead shot at the 15.8% career rate he had entering 2025-26, he'd have potted eight more goals, and, with that, at least risen above a point per game. Also, somehow Matthews took the ice for under two-thirds of Toronto's PP time, predictably leading to a drop in PP scoring.

Matthews also hit nine combined posts and crossbars in 60 games. Rather than me citing that as being too high and likely to shrink and lead to more goals for Matthews, instead it was too low, with him having hit 21 in 2024-25 and 23 in 2023-24 when he had better seasons. Ironically, when Matthews is dialed in, he should be hitting more posts and crossbars, rather than fewer as he did this season. The fact he usually shoots at a higher percentage even with hitting many posts and crossbars, does lend more plausibility to the fact that Matthews was "not himself" and 2025-26 being the worst we'll see from him, as opposed to a new normal.

Still, Mitch Marner is not coming back, and it's unlikely the Leafs will be able to replace him with a player anywhere near his caliber. Toronto actually has cap space and no major players to replace, which is of course a plus. When the prize UFA forward is Alex Tuch, that's not a great sign. Plus, the Leafs have very few young assets to help them make trades for RFAs or other players. Thus, Matthews might not have more talent around him in 2026-27, which is not ideal.

Of course there is the chance Matthews himself is moved. His contract is one that only a fraction of NHL teams could stomach; however; with Toronto having done so poorly and fired its GM, and likely to get a new coach, it might be a good time for them to consider trading Matthews. Or on the other hand, they may want to try to see if the new regime can get him back on track, although again, it's tough to see how they'll get more talent around him. Regardless of what happens, Matthews is set to be a UFA after 2027-28, meaning he can go where he wants if he's still with the Leafs by then.

I think the team will try to trade him if not this offseason then certainly before he becomes a UFA. If he stays though, even getting back to 90 points might be a stretch, meaning for sure he's no longer a top 10 fantasy pick, and likely not even top 20. Someone will reach for him given his pedigree and hopes he'll bounce back. I'd suggest that someone not be anyone reading this.

Question #5 (from Me again)

What should we make of Jusse Saros? For the fifth straight season his GAA rose while his SV% and Quality Start Percentage both dropped. Yet he's inked for seven more seasons for a $7.75M cap hit and he did still appear in the second most games of any netminder in 2026-27. Can he find a way to right his ship? If not, will Nashville keep playing him as much as they have?

Although it seems like he's been around forever, Saros is only 31, which, for a goalie, should be right in their prime. Yet Saros keeps getting worse. Also, although Saros has many strong seasons, most came when he was a back-up or 1B. Yes, the first couple of campaigns when he became a workhorse were very good too, but it's been all downhill from there.

The question is whether there is hope he might rebound. His SV% was below .900 when he started after zero, one, two, or three-days rest, yet .917 if he had four or more days rest. Those numbers were actually similar to Filip Gustafsson and not much worse than Karel Velmelka or Linus Ullmark. Yet if we look at the 60 goalies who logged 1000+ minutes in 2025-26, Saros stood sixth worst in high danger SV%, which is also his rank in ES SV%. And for what it's worth, he faced 50 shots while his team was on the PP, but only allowed one SHG. And his SV% when his team was on the PK was in the top third. Still though, his GSAA was lousy, at -7.26, although that put him only 14th worst. He also can't blame his poor numbers on average distance of the shots he faced, as his average was 17th lowest, and among the goalies who were lower were Ilya Sorokin, Jeremy Swayman, Brandon Bussi, and Logan Thompson. He ranked a similar 19th in average goal distance, which again is far from great but not awful. Overall, this is not very encouraging data, although I honestly expected worse.

There's also the reality of the length and amount of his contract. Juutus Annunen was a cheap back-up, such that even when Saros was struggling mightily the team stuck with him. The question is whether Nashville trusts Saros enough to once again ink an inexpensive back-up who will not realistically push him for starts. They can afford a pricier back-up, so they might go that route, and look at the likes of Connor Ingram, Alex Nedeljkovic, or Cam Talbot. If so, Saros would still likely have a very long leash; however, perhaps not quite as long. 

In the end, money and contract length matter. If not, then Jordan Binnington and Elvis Merzlikins would not have managed to remain starters for as long as they have. Thus, with so much invested in Saros, and so many years left on his deal, he likely will be trotted out there for 55+ games again in 2026-27, although I would expect only minor improvements, if any, from him, meaning a GAA at or just below 3.00, a SV% at or just above .900, and a QS% just above 50%.

Question #6 (from the Also Me)

With Jack Eichel scoring at exactly a 100 point rate for the second straight season, and turning 30 right after the start of 2026-27, is that his ceiling? Also, will he play more with Mitch Marner, as when the two were linemates in Q1 of 2025-26 Eichel had 27 points in 20 games, for a 110 scoring rate. Is there a concern about a negative effect from John Tortorella being coach for an entire season?

I'll admit that when Eichel didn't make a major splash in his first two seasons in Vegas, I thought we'd witnessed the best we'd see from him. Yet he's scored at a 100-point rate now for two straight seasons, even as his SOG rate has declined and without overtly better numbers. How, then, can this be explained, and is it realistic to count on it continuing?

The biggest key is the team's SH% at 5×5, which was 11.4% in 2024-25 and 11.6% last season. The fact it was that high not just once but twice, and in back to back seasons, makes it a lot more probable it can be as high going forward. However, Eichel's secondary assist rate was 59.1% in 2024-25 and 52.1% this past season. Those are not stratospheric, especially for a center; however, the next highest rate for any of the other ten forwards who had 60+ assists in 2025-26 was 43.5%, and only one of the other ten was above the 40% mark. With Eichel's SOG volume down, he might be morphing into more of a playmaker versus a sniping center, and again him doing this two seasons is a row makes is less concerning. It does cut against him doing better, although on the other hand his IPPs, both overall and on the PP, were his lowest since joining the Knights. In sum, with as many of his metrics pointing up as down, it might just be that we should figure him for roughly 100 points however we slice it.

Of course, there's the Torts factor to consider. After all, this was a coach who had the Sedins in their peak and they produced at the worst rates of their careers, and teams he's coached have not produced high scorers, and that included peak Artemi Panarin in Columbus. In the eight regular season games Eichel played after Torts was named coach, he had 12 points, for a 123-point scoring pace. In half those games his TOI was under 20 minutes, including three times at 18:08 or less, this from a player who averaged over 21:00 per game all season and had been under the 18:08 mark only twice in the prior 66 games for the season. While Eichel did thrive, one of those games saw him get four points, and he had zero in two. Given this, we should project Eichel for lower production under Torts, meaning maybe closer to a 90-point rate, rather than 95+, let alone 100.

Could pairing Eichel with Marner help? Maybe, as the team did not thrive with them separated. Splitting them apart allows Vegas to have two true scoring lines, and Torts has kept them apart during the playoffs, plus is the kind of coach who prefers to rely on three lines. Not only is Eichel unlikely to be alongside Marner at ES next season either, but his TOI should shrink, which will further cut against him scoring at a 100-point rate in 2026-27.

************************

To get mailbag questions to me either (1) email them to [email protected] with the words "Roos Mailbag" as the subject line, or (2) send them to me via a private message on the DobberHockey Forums, where my username is "rizzeedizzee".

When sending me your questions, remember to provide as much detail about your league/situation as possible. Examples of things I need to know include what type of league you're in (i.e., limited keeper, dynasty, or one-year; roto vs. H2H; auction – if so, what the budget is – or non-auction), how many teams are in the league, does the salary cap matter, how many players are rostered (and of those, how many start at each position as well as how many bench and/or IR spots there are), what categories are scored and how are they weighted, plus other details if pertinent. If your question involves whether to pick up or drop a player, give me a list of top free agents available and let me know if the number of pick-ups is limited or if there is a priority system for pick-ups. If you're thinking of making a trade, it would be good to know not only the roster of the other team you might trade with but also where you stand in your categories. If your question involves keepers, in addition to giving me the options for who to keep, let me know if offseason trading is allowed and to what extent it is a viable option given your league. In sum, the key is to tell me enough for me to give you a truly proper answer, and for readers of this column to benefit from the answer/advice I provide. When in doubt, it's best to err on the side of inclusion since I can always omit or disregard things that don't matter.