Welcome back to Forum Buzz, where I peruse the DobberHockey Forums and weigh in on active, heavily debated, or otherwise relevant recent threads, reminding folks just how great a resource the Forums are. Nearly anything might be covered here, other than trades and signings, which usually get their own separate write-ups on the main site and are also normally covered in the next day’s Ramblings, or questions that are specific to salary cap issues, which is the domain of the weekly Capped column. To access the specific forum thread on which a question is based, click on the “Topic” for that question.

As is now becoming tradition, I'll start the column with a nod to the sadly now dormant "Who am I?" thread in the Forums where someone thought of a real-life hockey player or persona, who can be from the past or present, male or female, in the NHL or not, and they give clues to help people guess who it is. You get to enter one guess per clue, and if you guess correctly you think of the next player, so it just keeps going indefinitely. For your enjoyment, here is a "Who am I?" sample. See how many clues it takes for you to guess who I am.

CLUE #1 – I'm a retired, Canada born NHL forward

CLUE #2 – I was a first round draft pick

CLUE #3 – I went straight from Canadian Juniors into the NHL, playing nearly every game in my age 18 season

CLUE #4 – I saw my scoring rate improve each of the next three seasons

CLUE #5 – Despite this, I never tallied 65 points in a single NHL season

CLUE #6 – I did top 60 points three times, all before turning 24

CLUE #7 – My first team was able to parlay my early success into making me the centerpiece in a trade where they acquired a future Hall of Famer

CLUE #8 – My scoring dropped in my one and only season on my second team, and I was dealt yet again barely a year after my first trade

CLUE #9 – I rebounded slightly in my first season with my third team, and won a Stanley Cup

CLUE #10 – In addition to winning the Stanley Cup, I won four gold medals representing Canada internationally, twice at the WJCs and twice in the World Cup

CLUE #11 – But after that second World Cup win, my NHL career was a disaster, amassing a mere 23 points in my last 122 games spread among three teams

CLUE #12 – That led to me going to the AHL before playing two seasons overseas and then retiring at age 34

CLUE #13 – The NHL teams I played for, in order, were San Jose, Anaheim, New Jersey, Washington, Anaheim again, and Calgary

CLUE #14 – My initials are J.F.

So, who am I? Hopefully you figured it out. Check the end of the column to confirm, or, if not, to find out who I am. Now onto regularly scheduled Forum Buzz programming. 

Topic #1 –In a 12 GM league where each GM keeps 12 players, the categories are Goals (G) 2, Assists (A) 1, Plus/Minus (+/-) .5, Penalty Minutes (PIM) .1, Powerplay Goals (PPG) 1, Powerplay Assists (PPA) .50, Shorthanded Goals (SHG) 2, Shorthanded Assists (SHA) 1, Game-Winning Goals (GWG) 1, Shots on Goal (SOG) 0.05, Wins (W) 3.5, Goals Against (GA) -0.8, Shots Against (SA) 0.08, Shutouts (SHO) 1 and offseason trading is allowed, one GM, whose team finished 5th but thinks they can win in the next 2-3 years, has the following players as options for its 12 keepers:

Seth Jarvis, Dylan Holloway, Matt Boldy, Jesper Bratt, Dylan Guenther, Martin Necas, Adam Fantilli, Pavel Dorofeyev, Quinton Byfield, Bobby McMann, Alexis Lafreniere, Thomas Harley, Jake Sanderson, Sam Rinzel, Zayne Parekh, Sam Malinski, Jordan Binnington, Jakub Dobes, Thatcher Demko, and Joey Daccord. Which 12 players should be kept, and should the GM make any trades?

In the thread, the GM suggested not keeping Dorofeyev, McMann, Lafreniere, Rinzel, Malinski, Dobes, Demko and Daccord. Starting with goalies, I'm not keeping any, and that's even if, as has been speculated might happen, Binnington gets dealt. Yes, he's a big game talent, but the issue is the season is 82 games (soon to be 84 though), and for many years he's not been good enough in the majority of those games. Maybe now that he has to earn his next contract he'll play better; but I think there are better options for this team in terms of its skaters. Plus, if 12 teams are keeping 12 players, I suspect no goalie who's as anywhere near as iffy as Binnington is being kept.

That is four of the eight non-keeps, meaning only four more are needed. Looking at the list of those being kept, my only concern is with Parekh. Despite starting nearly 80%(!) of his shifts in the offensive zone, and getting long looks on PP1, he managed just nine points in 37 games. But with both MacKenzie Weegar and Rasmus Andersson now gone, and really no one else capable of running a PP, Parekh likely will get great deployment again. Still, if the Flames sign someone to QB PP1, then I'd not keep Parekh because that might mean they realize he's not ready for prime time and thus should be put into the draft pool with only 144 players being kept in total.

The spot that is freed up due to not keeping Binnington comes down to Dorofeyev and Laffy. Dorofeyev is a high-volume shooter and PP dynamo, and thus well suited for these categories. He's also just past his 200-game breakout threshold, which coincided with a Q3 that saw him post 22 points in 23 games. The issue is the Torts effect. Vegas deployed – quite successfully – a PP1 that consisted of five forwards, and Dorofeyev thrived. In the playoffs, Shea Theodore is on PP1 again, meaning if everyone is healthy then two of Jack Eichel, Mitch Marner, Mark Stone, Tomas Hertl, Ivan Barbashev and Dorofeyev won't be on PP1. So far Dorofeyev has kept his PP1 spot, but he's gone from taking the ice for over 75% of Vegas' PP minutes during the season, to under two-thirds in the playoffs. That is concerning.

As for Laffy, he thrived after the exodus of Artemi Panarin, which sounds illogical given Panarin had previously made a career out of getting the best out of everyone with whom he played; but perhaps this can be explained by Panarin, being a points magnet and person around whom an offense is built, acting as more of an impediment to Laffy than a benefit. Yes, it was only a quarter of the season, but Laffy was scoring and shooting lots more, plus saw his TOI skyrocket. And part of that scoring binge was on the PP, which differentiates it from his hot stretch to end 2023-24, when he was similarly hot but had nearly no PP production. Whereas there are question marks surrounding Dorofeyev, it's very likely Laffy will be on the top line at ES and PP1.

In a perfect world, I'd keep both of them. That means either not keeping Parekh, or perhaps making a trade; and with that in mind, I might explore trading Jarvis. He's well past his 200-game breakout threshold, yet hasn't made a major leap. With the way forwards are deployed in Carolina, he likely can't do much better, if even better. He has great name value, so I'd look to deal him and perhaps Harley, who is now firmly stuck behind Miro Heiskanen yet also has name value, to get a defenseman upgrade, allowing Dorofeyev, Laffy and Parekh to be kept.

Topic #2 – In a 12 team, keep 9 (any position) plus 7 prospects, with scoring of G (4.25 for D, 3.5 for F), A (3 for D, 2.5 for F), SOG (0.5), HIT, BLK, W (2), SV (0.3), GA (-1.5), SO (2), a GM ended the season with the following line-up.

F: Nick Suzuki, Ivan Demidov, Mathew Barzal, Jordan Kyrou, Beckett Sennecke, Matvei Michkov, Ryan Leonard, J.J. Peterka, Aliaksei Protas, Pavel Zacha, Cole Perfetti, Matthew Olivier
D: Mike Matheson, K'Andre Miller, Denton Mateychuk, Jake McCabe, Travis Sanheim
G: Dan Vladar, Tristan Jarry:

Prospects: Cole Hutson, Michael Hage, Axel Sendin-Pellikka, Jacob. Fowler, Mackie Samoskevich, Josh Doan, Alexander Zharovsky

They have an opportunity to trade Suzuki or Demidov for Cutter Gauthier. Does it make sense for them to do so, and, if yes, who should they trade?

Right from the start, if I have Nick Suzuki I'm holding onto him with a vice grip. Not only did he surpass the century mark in points, but he continued his remarkable streak of seeing his scoring rate increase every season he's been in the NHL. Yes, that has to end somewhere; however, it's clear Suzuki is now an elite talent, and, at just 27 when next season starts, should have many more great years. Plus he even chips in nicely with hits and blocks. If I'd consider trading him, it would need to be for a proven, truly top tier player. But the issue is GMs who own those players likely would not – as yet – see Suzuki for what he is, which is fine, since I think he's a great hold.

What about Demidov for Gauthier? Gauthier led the entire NHL in SOG/60 last season. Yet four of the top six in SOG/60, including Gauthier, were under point per game players, although one was Auston Matthews. But the others were Brady Thachuk and Timo Meier, and another was Alex DeBrincat, who has finished more seasons below a point per game than above. The last was Nathan MacKinnon. Also, let's not forget Owen Tippett was fourth in the NHL in the same stat two years ago, and he's disappointed since, although when he did so he was in his fourth season at age 24, versus Gauthier doing this in his second season at age 22. In short, this is a positive, but not necessarily indicative of Gauthier becoming a huge scorer, since as many who shoot at this high of a rate have risen to, but not much beyond, point per game output.

As for Demidov, he did very well also in limited minutes, scoring at a higher points-per-60 than Gauthier. However, his SOG volume was very low and he slowed as the season wore on. The latter is less of a concern though since it was his first NHL season, where it's not uncommon to hit a wall in the second half. He was also slotted alongside less talented players than Gauthier. Also, it's all but assured that Demidov will remain on PP1 for the Habs, whereas for the time being that is not a 100% certainty with Gauthier, since there are more players in the mix, at least for the time being. The good news though is even if Gauthier is not on PP1, the reality is Anaheim's PP2 gets nearly as much TOI as its PP1. Still, Demidov should be in a much better PP situation.

With the vast SOG difference between them, plus Gauthier being a goal scorer, I like him over Demidov for this format and thus would make this trade. Demidov could have a higher ceiling; but I think Gauthier is definitely better suited for the league such that even if Demidov outpoints him by ten or more, Gauthier would still have more value due to the scoring system.

Topic #3 – What is the outlook for Mason McTavish? Is there still reason to be optimistic?

The 2026-27 season was – and, in the playoffs, continues to be – for sure a major step back for McTavish; however, as was pointed out by the person who opened the thread, he didn't sign his new contract until nearly the end of September, a good two weeks into training camp. Yet if we look at his season numbers, he actually fared best in Q1, which of course cuts against his late signing being a factor in his struggles. Also, it's safe to say that McTavish was put in position to succeed, as by far his most common linemates at even strength were Beckett Sennecke and Cutter Gauthier, although each of them outperformed him by a substantial margin. Even though McTavish took the ice for barely over a third of Anaheim's PP time in the regular season, there too he was deployed favorably, mostly again with Gauthier and Sennecke, plus Mikael Granlund, Leo Carlsson, or Alex Killorn. In short, McTavish wasn't playing with subpar talent, making his struggles more concerning.

What went wrong for McTavish, and was it merely a blip in the radar or signs of concern going forward? For starters, MacTavish's team SH% at 5×5, which had been as high as 11% in 2024-25 and also a very solid 10.5% in 2023-24, dropped to 9.2%, which is still not awful by any means, but for sure lower. His overall IPP, which had been merely a notch below 70% in prior seasons, was 61.2%. His PP IPP though was a very strong 78.6%, which was all the more impressive due to the caliber of his PP linemates, but also making it somewhat of a head scratcher that he wasn't out there more with the man advantage. His SOG rate was below two per game, which certainly didn't help matters. Also, although he shed only 30 seconds of PP time per contest versus 2025-26, his overall TOI per game was down nearly two full minutes, and it shrank with each passing quarter.

I would've said him earning $7M per season would protect him against being deemphasized, but the new contract started this season, meaning the fact he makes as much as he does will not, in and of itself, ensure he gets top deployment given what we've seen. In the playoffs he put together a four-game point streak despite only getting over 13:00 of TOI in two of those games; but he was then a healthy scratch for a few games before returning and making his mark in game four of the Vegas series with three shots and a plus-one rating.

I can increasingly see a universe where McTavish is no longer a Duck come the start of 2026-27. In fact, if I own him, I'm happy he's being scratched rather than barely playing, as it is likely to force the issue. There's also the fact the team has a surplus of wingers, as evidenced by them being able to play McTavish in the bottom six or scratch him. With the rising cap, his salary is no longer that high given deals which were signed since his. My guess is he's dealt for someone with grit, as other than Chris Kreider, who's 35, the team doesn't have much in the way of sandpaper forwards in the top-nine, and Jacob Trouba is a UFA. On a new team, McTavish could be revitalized.

If McTavish stays in Anaheim, I fear he will have a tough time getting back into the team's good graces, making it so a scoring rate again in the 40s or at beast low 50s seems likeliest. On a new team though, if he's cemented in the top six and on PP1, he'd have a shot at 60+ points right away, plus eventually rising at least into the 70s. 

Topic #4 – A team is on the fence about keeping Mathew Barzal. They think if he can be at or just under a point per game, he'd be worth holding, but is that realistic?

It's hard to believe it was eight seasons ago Barzal, as a 20 year old rookie, posted 85 points and in doing so became the only center other than Sidney Crosby since 2000-01 to score that many points as a rookie. Needless to say, Barzal was not the second coming of Crosby. But what to make of him now? Yes, he's only had one other point per game season, but it was in 2023-24, after many felt his best days were behind him. Can he rise to that level again in 2026-27?

In looking at his 2025-26 numbers, Barzal was healthy all season, as was Matthew Schaefer. Bo Horvat did miss 14 games, but Barzal actually posted 16 points in those 14 games, meaning he fared better when Horvat wasn't in the line-up. Of course, there is hope Schaefer can build on his success, with Barzal among those likely to benefit. Also, the Isles ranked third worst in PP%, and that can only rise. Still, Barzal has never topped 25 PPPts in a season, and he had 20 this past season, meaning even if he'd matched his prior high he'd have remained below the point per game mark for 2025-26.

Is there realistic room for improvement anywhere else? Barzal was at 3.0 SOG per game in his 2023-24 point per game season, dropping to 2.6 in 2024-25 and 2.3 this season. If he's able to rise to 3.0 per game again, that might be enough. With him firing a consistent 40-50 SOG in each quarter of this season though, chances of him shooting more are unlikely. But after three seasons of a 5×5 team SH% ranging from 8.1%-8.4% with Barzal on the ice, the figure rose to 8.9% in the 2024-25 season, and 9.2% this season. Perhaps it can rise still further, especially if Schaefer gets even better. Also, Barzal had an overall IPP of 71.4%+ every season until 2024-25, when it fell to 54.1%. It was up a bit to 64.3% this season; however, it is realistic to think it can get back to the higher levels that were Barzal's hallmark. On the other hand, 43.4% of Barzal's assists were secondary. In part, though, that was likely due to Schaefer and his 23 defenseman goals, so to me that is not a concern despite it being higher than Barzal's norm.

All things considered, I think Barzal is one of those players whose realistic floor and ceiling are not that far apart. If I had to put it in terms of percentages, I'd say there's a 10% chance he scores below a 65-point pace, a 20% chance he scores at a 66-70 point rate, a 25% chance he produces at a 71-75 point pace, also a 25% chance he scores at a 76-80 point rate, a 15% chance he scores at an 81-85 point pace, and a 5% chance he scores at an 86 or higher point rate.

Topic #5 – What should be expected from Devon Levi? He went from seemingly having the inside track to being a starter a couple of years ago, to being stuck in the minors ever since. Is he still someone with realistic upside?

Answering goalie questions is so much different than even a couple of years ago, since other than a few truly entrenched starters nothing is set in stone. That includes Buffalo, where, due to helping guide them to an amazing last 25+ games of the season, Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen looked to have solidified himself as a true #1, only to be pushed aside in the playoffs by Alex Lyon, a 33 year old who'd only ever taken the ice for four playoff games several seasons ago.

Then there's Levi, who many expected would seize the reins for the Sabres in 2023-24 after UPL looked iffy and Levi had thrived in the NCAA. But Levi did not shine, and has played only nine NHL games in the last two combined seasons, plus fared worse in the AHL in 2025-26 than he did in 2024-25.

Looking at contracts, UPL is inked through 2028-29 at a not very high $4.75M cap hit, while Lyon has one year remaining on a deal that pays him $1.5M, then can become a UFA. Levi also has a year left, but will be a RFA. Given these numbers, and UPL's failure to become a dependable starter, I'd expect no Sabre goalie to play more than 50 games next season, barring injury. If Lyon plays well, he'll likely find no shortage of suitors, leaving the Sabres to decide whether Levi has shown enough to earn a place in the NHL for 2027-28. The good news for the Sabres is Levi should not be expensive to re-sign, and UPL's salary allows them to play whoever is doing best.

Looking at goalies – dating back to 2000-21 – who played 20+ games in a season by age 22, as did Levi, I was surprised to see there were several dozen, with some doing so more than once by that age. Of those, how many, like Levi, put up a GAA above 3.00 and SV% under .900, and how did they subsequently fare? It was eight, with them being Cam Ward, Carter Hart, Karri Ramo (twice), Marc-Andre Fleury (twice), Rick DiPietro, Dan Blackburn (twice), Steve Mason, and Nico Daws. That list doesn't help us much though, as their future performances ran the gamut from amazing to terrible. But if we remove those who, unlike Levi, debuted in the NHL at ages 18, 19, or 20, that leaves Daws and Hart. Hart, of course, remained a starter, while Daws has appeared only sparingly. Overall, player comparables don't seem to help much here.

If Levi had thrived in the AHL for 2025-26, rather than having taken a step back, I think he'd still be the clear heir-apparent to UPL. But he faltered, and might become one of many hyped goalie prospects who was unable to find success at the pro level. At this point I'd still say he controls his destiny, meaning if he is able to post strong AHL numbers for 2026-27, he should be in the NHL to stay for 2027-28, if not sooner, and given a real chance to push UPL out of the picture such that UPL, who'll be a UFA at the end of his deal, will go elsewhere and Levi becomes the starter. Also though, if Buffalo's strong showing is a sign of just as good, or even better, things on to come, they might be hesitant to hand the reins to Levi. Ironically Levi's fate could actually be worse if Buffalo becomes a top tier team.

I'll end by reiterating what I said at the outset, which is with goalies there are so few certainties in this day and age. Going through this analysis for Levi only underscores why. To sum up, Levi might still factor prominently in the team's plans, although he likely will need to step up his game very quickly, plus, even if he does, perhaps the team will look elsewhere if they want to stack up against the best of the best.

Topic #6 – In a points only keeper where 11F and 5D are rostered and each team keeps a total of 6 players, a GM is keeping Nikita Kucherov, Tim Stuzle, David Pastrnak, Dylan Guenter, and Lane Hutson, but is unsure about the sixth skater. The possibilities are Brayden Point, Trevor Zegras, Matt Duchene, Jimmy Snuggerud, Gabe Perreault, Caleb Desnoyers, Anton Frondell, Alexander Nikishin, Denton Mateychuk, Oliver Ekman-Larsson and Carter Yakemchuk. They're thinking it's one of Point, Snuggerud or Frondell. Do they have the correct five, and, if so, who's the sixth?

The only possible non-keep among the six is Guenther. But he was a point per game player after the first quarter, and is only 27 games over his 200-game breakout threshold. Looking at the other choices, I cannot see how he isn't a better keep than two of them – that is, there already is a need for a sixth keeper, so Guenther would have to be a worse keep than whoever that is, plus another player, and that is not the case.

I agree with others in the thread that Zegras should be considered. The concern is being a part of Rick Tocchet's system, which does not heap ice time – at ES or on the PP – to even its best forwards. Travis Konecny, the team's leader in TOI per game, ranked only 53rd among all forwards, and on the PP it was even worse, as Zegras had the highest PPTOI per game for the team, but it put him only 85th among all NHL forwards. If you don't take the ice enough, especially on the PP, that is a major impediment to scoring; so although perhaps Zegras would be the one to produce up the most points among all the other choices in a perfect world, but playing under Tocchet is not a perfect world in terms of fantasy output, so Zegras is not the sixth keep.

I'm not keeping Frondell either. I realize there is significant lure given that he looked not at all out of place in the 12 games he played, posting nine points and averaging three SOG per game, plus has enormous upside both due to his own talent but also the opportunity to play with Conor Bedard. But is he a keep over Snuggerud or Point? I don't think so, as I feel like he is not as hyped after his late season debut as, for example, Ivan Demidov and Lane Huston were. Or to put it another way, he might be an easier redraft, plus, in both Snuggerud and Point, you have players with higher floors. Also, this team's keepers are all great now, so I'd be more in favor of keeping guys who are also likely to do well now, versus further down the road. I don't think it's wrong to consider Frondell, but it's just too early and given the other choices.

Then js Point the keep, or Snuggerud? A year ago it would've been a slam dunk for Point. But in the interim, Point had a down season, plus for the first time ever was kept apart from Kucherov at ES, which is worrisome, especially since Point relies so much on goal scoring, and a high SH%, both of which were helped significantly by skating alongside one of the best playmakers in the NHL. Yes, Point still has an ironclad spot on PP1, and has been a consistent PP stud. 

We saw last season what happens if Point shoots less, and less accurately, plus didn't thrive on the PP. The first two could be ongoing concerns, although the third, namely PP production, might not be, as his IPP on the PP was 35.5%, after never being lower than 53%. Still, Kucherov did great when playing with Brandon Hagel and Anthony Cirelli at ES, so chances are they stay together, with Point on the outside looking in, with the end result being Point having a scoring rate in the 70s, with a better chance of falling below 70 than rising above 80.

Still, is that better than Snuggerud, who only had 51 points in 70 games but finished the season with 24 in 20 games, firing over three SOG in those games? One concern is Snuggerud did this even though his PPTOI was pretty low, and just two of those points came on the PP. On the one hand, that means he has room to score more if he can thrive on the PP; but much like Philly the blueprint for St. Louis is to not heap lots of PP time on even its best players, so I do worry he won't see major gains there. The line of him, Robert Thomas, and Dylan Holloway clicked in a major way, and I have to envision them staying together. Also, Snuggerud did that well in Q4 despite it being his first full NHL season, when many rookies often hit a wall. I realize that in talking down Frondell I stressed how this team was built for the here and now; but if Snuggerud was kept, that would be enough current production, plus more of a future focus than Point.

In the end, the success we saw from Snuggerud in Q4, plus how well Kucherov did at ES despite not playing with Point suggesting that the once unthinkable of Point and Kucherov playing on separate lines at ES is likely to continue, tilts me toward keeping Snuggerud. In keeping him over Point, there is production for the here and now, plus into the future. Plus, even if somehow Point does return to playing with Kucherov, the team would still get the Kucherov benefit.

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THE ANSWER TO WHO THE PLAYER IS……….Jeff Friesen!

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Questions for Mailbag column needed

The upcoming edition of my monthly mailbag still has room for more questions, which you can send me by either private messaging “rizzeedizzee” via the DobberHockey Forums, or emailing [email protected] with “Roos Mailbag” as the subject line.