Ramblings: Searching for Defensive Fantasy Breakouts Including Schneider, Guhle, Hronek, Broberg, and Evans – May 19

Michael Clifford

2026-05-19

The Montreal Canadiens defeated the Buffalo Sabres in overtime 3-2 on Monday night, earning the Game 7 win and a trip to the Eastern Conference Final. Alex Newhook played the hero, firing a low, glove-side shot off the rush that eluded Sabres goalie Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen. That was Newhook's sixth goal of the series as he showed up in a big way when Montreal needed some depth scoring.

The other Habs goals were from Phillip Danault and Zachary Bolduc. Kaiden Guhle finished with an assist, a shot, four blocks, and three hits in the 71-minute game. More on him a bit later in these Ramblings.

Jakub Dobes stopped 37 of 39 shots for the win in a great bounce-back game.

After falling behind 2-0, Buffalo battled back with goals from Jordan Greenway and Rasmus Dahlin to tie things up 2-2 and send the matchup to overtime.

All in all, a tremendous Game 7 between two teams who are part of the next wave of perennial playoff teams in the Eastern Conference.

Montreal will meet the Carolina Hurricanes in the East Final beginning on Thursday night in Raleigh.

*

The season review continues as today's Ramblings will look at defencemen who saw some under-the-hood improvements in 2025-26 which didn't necessarily lead to big fantasy value improvements. In these Ramblings on Friday, we reviewed four forwards fitting this bill in Anton Lundell, Dmitri Voronkov, Alex Turcotte, and Simon Holmstrom.

Tracking data is at 5-on-5 only and compiled by All Three Zones. The player/team data is from Evolving Hockey. We are limiting the sample to defencemen with at least 340 tracked minutes across the 2023-25 seasons and 150 tracked minutes in 2025-26. That gives us 147 defencemen to pick through.

Braden Schneider (New York Rangers)

One thing to look at in the tracking data is called 'scoring chance assists per 60 minutes', or SCA/60. What that measures is how often a player assists on a teammate's scoring chance. The chance may not turn into a goal, but it does show a player looking for his teammates in dangerous shooting positions, which is a crucial step to scoring goals, and thus point production.

Across the 2023-24 and 2024-25 seasons, Schneider's SCA rate wasn't very good, leading to below-average rates of scoring chance contributions (those assists plus that player's individual scoring chances). That changed dramatically in 2025-26 as he had the second-largest increase in SCA/60 among our 147 defencemen, leading to an 80% increase in his total scoring chance contributions (SCC/60):

Anyone watching the 2026 NHL playoffs regularly should notice just how much success the teams with very active defencemen – Colorado, Anaheim, Montreal, Buffalo, Carolina – are having. Whatever people may think of Schneider's defence, or his consistency, this kind of additional playmaking from the blue line can help the Rangers generate goals when Adam Fox is off the ice (assuming Schneider is in a Rangers uniform next season).

Schneider's true breakout prospects are very murky because as long as Fox is in the lineup, Fox will take top PP minutes, and that limits Schneider's upside. The Rangers are also in the middle of another re-tool, so how good their forwards are at 5-on-5, especially in a full year without Artemi Panarin, is another question. Regardless, if Schneider can maintain these improvements with the heavier usage he got from December onward, he can be a 30-point defenceman even without that top PP role.

Kaiden Guhle (Montreal Canadiens)

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The first note on Guhle is that he passed the 200-game plateau back in March and turned 24 years old in January. He is entering his prime years, which we have to keep in mind.

What has held Guhle back over the last couple years are injuries. He has played just 94 regular season games over the past two seasons and 164 over the last three. He won't have a lot of fantasy value if he misses one-third of every season.  

Knowing that, Guhle's key to fantasy ascendance is his peripheral production: over the last three seasons, Guhle is 1 of 7 players to average at least 100 shots, 150 blocks, and 150 hits every 82 games across the prior three campaigns. That kind of across-the-board production could make him a multi-cat monster if he improves his production (which is actually fine at 25 points every 82 games). That is why Guhle having sizeable increases in his SCA and zone entry rates is worth highlighting:

Montreal uses its defencemen to create offence at some of the highest rates in the league, and while guys like Lane Hutson and Noah Dobson will get the attention, it applies to every rearguard in the lineup. Guhle just being healthy for 80 games would make him a huge multi-cat asset. If he can stay healthy and keep up the offensive improvements he's shown? He could be one of the more valuable multi-cat defencemen in fantasy hockey.  

Filip Hronek (Vancouver Canucks)

This wouldn't be a true breakout as Hronek is coming off a 49-point season and has averaged 48 points every 82 games across the last three seasons. He is mentioned here not only because of the improvements we will discuss, but because he is looking at a full season with no Quinn Hughes. From Christmas onward, Hronek averaged nearly 25:30 per game, which is monster usage. Anything close to that, with some top PP time, warrants extra analysis.

Hronek, like Guhle, saw an increase in his rate of zone entries, but it was modest. The huge improvement came from how often he carried in his zone entries:

That increase brought Hronek from a below-average defenceman by carried zone entries to well above average. With Hughes no longer around to do all the puck work, Hronek assumed more offensive responsibilities, and the carried entry numbers reflect that.

The real problem for Hronek's fantasy value is whether Zeev Buium takes another step in his development and runs the top power play. Nearly half of Hronek's production after the Hughes trade (16/33 points) came with the man advantage. It would be great for Vancouver if Buium showed he can run the first PP unit, but it would be awful for Hronek's fantasy value. We won't know that answer until training camp at the earliest, but at least Hronek has added to his offensive foundation and that gives him hope of reaching the 50-point mark for the first time.  

Philip Broberg (St. Louis Blues)

The first key point for Broberg was how much run he got with the power play down the stretch – after Justin Faulk was traded at the deadline, Broberg went from 17.5% of the team's PPTOI to 56.6% (per Frozen Tools). Going from a sometimes-second-PP defenceman to a firm grip on the top PP role is a massive shift in value. He still has to contend with Cam Fowler and Logan Mailloux, but at least St. Louis seems open to giving Broberg that opportunity. Considering he has just seven power-play points over the last two seasons, that in and of itself can unlock Broberg's breakout status.

In addition to a top PP role, what would help Broberg are the improvements he showed in 2025-26. He showed modest improvements in his rate of zone entries and carried zone entries, but a massive improvement in his scoring chance contributions:

The two zone entry stats didn't increase much, but that's because he was already very good in both areas. Any sort of increase there is just more icing on the cake. What really matters is the huge scoring chance contribution jump; it shows he wasn't just starting the play, he was looking to (help) finish them, too.

As with Guhle, Broberg crossed the 200-game threshold in 2025-26, and now sits at 230 career regular season games. He turns 25 years old this summer and even with names like Fowler and Colton Parayko on the roster, Broberg looks like he's now the Blues' number-1 defenceman. From the post-Olympic break onward, St. Louis was a top-5 team by goals per 60 minutes at 5-on-5. If Broberg's improvements hold, he keeps the top PP role, and continues to get 23-24 minutes a game? Those are all the ingredients necessary for a massive breakout season. He is a name to circle for fantasy drafts in September.

Ryker Evans (Seattle Kraken)

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As with others on this list, the big impediment to Evans' fantasy value taking another step is his role on the team. Both Brandon Montour and Vince Dunn will take priority for power-play minutes, and we can add Adam Larsson to that list when looking at even strength. If all goes well, maybe Evans can move into the number-3 role at even strength, but that's a 'maybe', and it's still not worth a whole lot without a power-play role.

Evans did genuinely add to his facilitation profile this past season because his rate of scoring chance assists, as well as how often he carried in his zone entries, both increased by roughly 50%:

Aside from the PP and EV roles, what hurts Evans is the entire Kraken roster. They finished 27th by goal rate at 5-on-5 this past season and are 23rd across the last two seasons. A second-pair defenceman with little-to-no power play time who skates for a team that is in the bottom-third of the league by 5-on-5 scoring is not likely to rack up the points. For those reasons, Evans is the most unlikely breakout of the five players in today's list. However, he has averaged 24 points, 102 blocks, and 109 hits every 82 games through his short NHL career, and if the Kraken can find some more 5-on-5 goals, Evans' underlying improvements can lead to a 30-point season. Add that to solid block/hit peripherals, and there's some multi-cat value brewing here.

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