Welcome back to Goldipucks and the Three Skaters, a play on words of the Goldilocks and the Three Bears story. Instead of there being three bowls of porridge though, I cover three skaters and declare one too hot (i.e., doing unsustainably better than he should), another too cold (i.e., doing unsustainably worse), and a third “just right” (i.e., producing where he should be). In addition, I also assign each a rating of 1-10, indicating how hot (rated 7-10, where 10 is the most unsustainably hot), cold (rated 1-4, where 1 is the most unsustainably cold), or “just right” (rated 4-7, where 5.5 is the most “just right”) he is.

As the date when a team will hoist the Stanley Cup nears, the level of fantasy detachment increases, which is unfortunate as now is when to get a leg up versus your competition. One way to gain that advantage is by reading this column, as it reveals details about three skaters (in this instance, David Pastrnak, Jack Hughes, and Matt Boldy) which, perhaps contrary to their 2025-26 season-long stats lead you to believe, actually suggest they were either too hot (meaning they did better than they should 've), or too cold (they did worse than they should've), or, instead, that their scoring rate was "just right". Who deserves which label? Think of your guesses now and then read on to see if your fantasy instincts are still sharp or you should start doing more homework to prepare for 2026-27.

David Pastrnak (77 GP, 29G, 71A, 262 SOG, 20:39 TOI, 33 PPPts, 3:39 PP, 77.1% PP%)

Grabbed 25th overall in 2014, Pasta showed he was NHL ready from the start, producing at better than a point per game rate in the AHL before coming to the Bs for 46 games, during which he scored at a 48-point rate. He took a step back the following season though, barely managing a point per every other game. Then things clicked in his third year, as his scoring rose to 70 points in 74 games. Two seasons later he scored at a 101-point rate, the first of six seasons with a triple digit his scoring pace, including in each of the last four campaigns. Once a sniper though, Pasta potted only 29 goals in 2025-26, yet averaged nearly an assist per game. Is this shift in his scoring ratios a sign of concern? Not from where I sit, as Pasta's overall production rate was justified.

One thing to note is Pasta's assist total did not balloon as much as it seems, as he had 63 in each of 2024-25 and 2023-24. Yes, in both cases he played 82 games, versus 77 this season when he amassed 71 assists. But it's not like he suddenly started dishing out lots of assists. I think the increased focus on his assist total is due to his sizeable drop in goals, as he had averaged at least a goal every other game in each of the last six full seasons. Still, he had been trending down, making it less glaring for him to have potted only 29 this season. The major difference is there are no longer the likes of Brad Marchand and Patrice Bergeron to dish him the puck, and instead Pasta has morphed into more of a Nikita Kucherov type.

But can he see his scoring rise to Kucherov levels? Unlikely, as for one, his personal SH% was a career low 11.1%, having been 13.9% entering 2025-26. Had his SH% been at his career rate, he'd have had seven more goals, and a scoring rate of 114, on par with his career best from 2022-23 but not as high as Kucherov. Also, as he's become less accurate, he's shooting less too, as he's gone from 15.0% while averaging 5.0 SOG per game, to 12.3% averaging 4.7 SOG per game, to 13.5% while averaging 3.9% per game, to 3.4 per game last season and the aforementioned 11.1% SH%. His PPG SOG total also has shrunk, and that is an area where one's overall SH% often is boosted. In fact, he's gone from 123 PPSOG in 2022-23 and 97 in 2023-24, to 70 this season. Somewhat surprisingly, his SH% might be at risk of staying this low if he remains a more selective shooter, particularly on the PP.

What's also important to note is despite a lower ratio of goals, Pasta had his lowest ever secondary assist rate, with it being 19.5% in 2025-26. This means although he did only pot 29 goals, 57 of his 71 assists were primary, meaning 86 goals or primary assists in 77 games. Comparing that to recent seasons, when he had 43 goals and 63 assists for 2024-25 his goals plus primary assist total was 90 in 82 games, and when he had 47 goals and 63 assists in 2023-24 his goals plus primary assist total was 86 in 82 games, and when he had 61 goals and 52 assists in 2022-23 his goals plus primary assists total was 89 in 82 games. In short, Pasta's missing goals in 2025-26 were repackaged as primary assists, and his ratio of primary points to games played was as good or better than it had been in his three most recent seasons. Even if Pasta does find his way to get his SH% back to where it once was, chances are his primary assist rate will drop back to prior rates for a net wash.

Looking at Pasta's other metrics, his team SH% at 5×5 was 12.5%, the fourth season in a row where it increased, first from 9.0% to 10.9%, then to 11.3%, and then to 12.0% in the 2024-25 season. Can it go even higher? Technically yes; however, 12.5% was above the rates of three of the five players who had a greater points-per-game average for 2025-26, with only Macklin Celebrini (12.8%) and Kucherov (14.0%) being higher. But that means he was above Nathan MacKinnon, Connor McDavid, and Leon Draisaitl, so we should not bank on further improvement.

Pasta's OZ% was a good bit lower than usual; however, that is likely due to the team around him, and might be closer to a new normal. And it had no effect on his TOIs, both overall and on the PP, nor on his percentage of Boston's PP time where he was on the ice. And his IPPs were superb, but that is nothing new. In short, in 2025-26, Pasta was his usual self in terms of scoring rate despite a much lower than "normal" goal and SOG totals.

Those who own Pasta in leagues where goals and/or SOG are categories might wish the "old Pasta" would reappear. But he seems to have reinvented himself as more of a Kucherov type playmaker, where, although his goal total will now be lower, his ratio of goals and primary assists is as great as ever. Thus, Pasta's 2025-26 was JUST RIGHT and he gets a rating of 5.25, as he should be a safe bet to continue to produce at a 105- to 110-point scoring rate.

Jack Hughes (61GP, 27G, 50A, 229 SOG, 21:19 TOI, 23 PPPts, 2:57 PP, 74.3% PP%)

A former first overall pick, Hughes started quite slow, leading some to wonder whether he might not fulfill lofty expectations, much like teammate Nico Hischier, who also was taken first overall. Hughes then exploded in his third season to produce at a 94-point scoring rate, followed by 99 points in 78 games the next season. Since then, though, Hughes has missed 20 or 21 games in each season, although when he played he was still elite, and in 2025-26 he matched his career best 104-point scoring rate. The question becomes, will injuries start to take more of a toll on his scoring? To me, no, as although he still might not be the best bet to log 82 games each season, his scoring nevertheless seems poised to rise even higher.

Pop quiz – without looking, how many points did Hughes have in 20 Q4 games? Would you believe 36? That's a 147-point full season pace. Whether or not it was a spillover effect of the US capturing Olympic gold and Hughes being a major reason for that, it was not just the "old Hughes" but an even better version. How though do we know if it's for real, with it, if prorated to an entire season, being so far above and beyond his best ever scoring pace?

One key is his SOG. Looking at the five other quarters in 2025-26 and 2024-25 when he played 17+ games, his best had been Q2 of 2024-25, when he had 27 points in 20 games. What did that quarter have him common with Q4 of 2025-26? A very high SOG rate, as in both quarters he had 87 SOG in 20 games, for a rate of 4.3 per game. But his Q4 2025-26 output is not only more recent, it also came when he averaged nearly a minute more TOI per game despite a lower per game PPTOI.

I'm not here to say that Hughes can be a 147-point player, as 15 goals in 20 games is not realistic. For some, a 17.2% SH%, as it was for Hughes in Q4 of 2025-26, could be seen as sustainable. But not for Hughes, who entered 2025-26 with a career SH% of just 11.1%, meaning had he shot at his "normal" rate in Q4 of 2025-26, he'd have scored ten goals instead of 15, such that if none of those goals were repackaged as assists, his scoring rate "should've been" only 127 in Q4 of 2025-26, which of course is still quite a bit more than Q2 of 2024-25, and well higher than his best season.

What's also so important about Q4 of 2025-26 is it showed there are no lasting effects of the injuries to Hughes over the past three seasons. That is important, since many a player is not only unable to get better after being oft-injured, but in fact starts to do worse. Not Hughes though, as he has bounced back after each of his injuries, thanks to talent and youth.

Also, although Hughes' SH% for Q4 of 2025-26 was quite elevated, it wasn't by much for the season as a whole, at 11.8%. It was a different story on the PP, as his SH% was actually lower than his overall rate, with a mere four PPGs on 44 PPSOG. Granted, New Jersey once again was in the bottom five in the NHL in PPTOI per game; but for 2024-25, Hughes had six PPGs on 47 SOG, for 12.7% PP SH%. In 2023-24, he had nine PPGs on 65 PP SOG, for a 13.8% PP SH%. While Hughes got an unsustainable Q4 boost in SH%, his PPSOG total and PP SH% were both too low for him, and should rise.

It was not just on the PP where Hughes' SH% was negatively affected, but 5×5 as well, since as a team the Devils shot 8.3% at ES when Hughes was on the ice. That is quite low not just for someone who scores at Hughes' level, but low for him specifically, as since he broke out his rate had been 9.7%, 9.9%, 7.7%, and 10.0%. He was shortchanged there as well.

On the other hand, Hughes' 72.5% offensive zone starting percentage was high even for him. But he was at 70.5% in 2024-25, and 66.1% in 2023-24 and 66.0% in 2022-23. So if it was to fall, it won't be by much, and above 70% might just be his new normal. Plus, his IPPs and secondary assist rates were par for the course.

Something I always mention when discussing Hughes is since SOG were tracked dating back to 1959-60, the only other center besides him to have a season, by age 21, averaging 4.3+ SOG per game, 1.25+ points per game, and 40+ goals, is Mario Lemieux. That's it. We know Lemieux had several challenges with his health in his career, but nevertheless was a superstar when he played, which is how things are shaping up for Hughes.

Although Hughes' scoring rate in Q4 of 2025-26 was not realistic, it, plus metrics that are not only nearly superb across the board but also sustainable, as well as room for better PP performance, showed he is capable of scoring at an even higher rate than 100-105 points, making his 2025-26 TOO COLD, and giving him a rating of 3.0, as I could see him producing at a 110-120 rate point rate in 2026-27.

Matt Boldy (76GP, 42G, 43A, 253 SOG, 20:34 TOI, 30 PPPts, 3:51 PP, 75.6% PP%)

Making a splash as a rookie to the tune of 39 points in 47 games, Boldy was equally solid in his next three campaigns, with a scoring rate in each that ranged from 64 to 75. The question was whether he'd make the leap into truly elite territory. Well, he did just that in 2025-26, with 85 points in 76 games, for a 92-point scoring rate. Was this a stepping stone to greater heights? On the contrary, as from his metrics it seems like he over-performed.

Immediately Boldy's personal SH% for 2025-26 stands out, as at 16.6% that's quite a bit higher than the 11.8% he had for his career upon entering 2025-26, meaning had he shot at his career rate this season he'd have tallied 12 fewer goals, which, if not repackaged as assists, would've put him at a 78-point rate, or not much higher than the rates of 72 and 75 he had in his prior two seasons. Looking at PPSOG, he overachieved as well, as his PP SH% was 17.4%, which is not objectively too high except for the fact it was 8.5% in 2024-25 and 11.9% in 2023-24. Of course, we know SH% doesn't tell the entire story; but it's a major difference, and does need to be factored into the equation, especially since his SOG per game was 3.3, which was identical to 2024-25 and his PP SOG per game rate was comparable to 2024-25 as well.

Digging into Boldy's metrics, Boldy's offensive zone starting percentage was 47.7%, which was almost identical to his 48.0% rate for 2024-25, cutting against it being a one-time thing. The reason it's that low is because he is not lining up alongside Kirill Kaprizov, who, in view of what he's being paid, is getting the prime offensive deployment. While Boldy's line is indeed a second line and seen as a scoring line, an OZ% that low does not equate to a production rate that high. 

In fact, of the 408 forwards who appeared in at least half their team's games in 2025-26, Boldy's OZ% put him tied for 177th lowest. I realize that means nearly half of the 408 had a rate that was lower than Boldy's; however, in focusing on how those 177 produced, just two (Lucas Raymond and Ryan O'Reilly) produced above a 70-point scoring rate, with neither eclipsing the point per game mark. Although this shows someone of Boldy's talent can realistically score at the 73 and 75 point rates he did in 2023-24 and 2024-25 despite an OZ% as low as it has been the last two seasons, for him to not only be at a point a game, but well above it, is objectively unsustainable.

Looking at Boldy's other metrics, his IPP at 5×5 was 71.4%, which is good to see since it was the second time he was in that vicinity (71.2% last season), after having never previously been above 62.7%. It makes sense as well, since the start of 2024-25 coincided with Boldy's 200-game breakout threshold, meaning that sizeable of a jump in IPP isn't unreasonable, especially, since, as noted, he went on to replicate it this season. His IPP on the PP also jumped in 2024-25 to 65.6%, and for 2025-26 it was 68.2%. Again, this is logical, and consistent with a player who is still entering his full prime. And while there is a good chance the Wild bring in a more talented center who will be put onto PP1, even if that happens and it reduces Boldy's PP IPP, chances are it will mean more team PPGs, for a net wash. As for secondary assist rate, Boldy's was 46.5%, which is a bit on the high side for a 40+ goal scorer. Here too though, it's not inconsistent with his past, as he was at 50.0% in 2024-25. Still, it's not likely to rise, further cutting against him being able to offset a scoring rate decline due to his low OZ%.

Also, the team had a 10.7% SH at ES with Boldy on the ice, well above the 8.1% it was last season. And although 10.7% is not objectively high, looking at the same 408 forwards, none of those with a lower OZ% had a scoring rate of 70+ points also had a higher 5×5 team SH%, and in fact only five managed a 60-point scoring pace with a higher 5×5 team SH%, namely Tyler Bertuzzi, Victor Arvidsson, Pavel Zacha, Josh Norris and Roope Hintz. Of them, the first three are widely regarded as having overachieved this season, while Norris and Hintz are solid players, but not in the same scoring echelon as what Boldy did this season. Still more reason to consider Boldy's 2025-26 production rate unsustainable.

Lastly, there's TOI, where Boldy's 20:34 per game was similar to 2024-25. He did benefit from almost a full minute more of PPTOI per game, raising his PPPt output from 21 in 82 games to 30 in 76. But we also have to take into account that Boldy went from 23 seconds of PK duty per game to 1:47 per game, meaning well more added SH time than PP time. This legitimizes Boldy's PPPt total, and makes it believable he could again tally four SHPs, as he did this season. However, if he continues to see regular PK duty, it means that, in contrast to 2024-25 when he was on the ice for 19:54 of ES and PP time per game, things might be more like they were for 2025-26, when, despite the gains in PP time, his PP plus ES TOI was 18:47, a drop of more than a full minute from 2024-25. Still more reason why his scoring rate for 2025-26 was elevated.

Boldy is a very talented player; however, the reality of his suboptimal deployment is it does not translate to anywhere near a scoring rate like he had in 2025-26. In fact, he should've been below a point per game, making his 2025-26 TOO HOT, and giving him a rating of 9.0, as he should be producing at a 75-80 point rate, even accounting for how skilled he is.

***********************

Questions for Mailbag 

I'm now running mailbags monthly as normal, or more often if I get enough questions, so submit your questions to me any time. To do so, you should send (1) a private message to “rizzeedizzee” via the DobberHockey Forums, or (2) an email to [email protected] with “Roos Mailbag” as the subject line.