We had another wild Stanley Cup Final game as the Carolina Hurricanes pulled off a 4-3 overtime win to equalize their series against the Vegas Golden Knights at one game apiece. A pair of Brett Howden goals in the first and second period gave Vegas a 2-0 lead, a lead they would have with 10 minutes remaining in the third period. Then goals from Logan Stankoven, Mark Jankowski, and Jordan Staal (PP) gave Carolina the 3-2 lead with under five minutes left.

The madness wouldn't stop there as Mark Stone scored with the goalie pulled to square the game at 3-3 and send it to overtime. That is where Seth Jarvis stepped up and crushed a one-timer on the power play to lift the Hurricanes to the win.

Shayne Gostisbehere assisted on both power-play goals and now has nine points across his last nine playoff games.

Frederik Andersen settled in after a rough first half of the game and held Vegas to three goals on 26 shots.

Howden's pair of goals ties him with a handful of others for the third-most in a playoff run in any of the last five seasons. He needs three more to tie Zach Hyman from the Edmonton Oilers' first run to the Cup Final in 2024.

Game 3 is Saturday night.

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Dobber’s 2026 Fantasy Hockey Prospects Report was released a few days ago and is available now in the Dobber Shop! Both Dobber and the Prospects team has been working for the last 12 months (and more) to highlight what you need to know about the prospects you need to know from the upcoming Entry Draft. It also has an in-depth look at each team’s current prospect pipeline and estimated arrivals for their top, young (hopeful) stars. Head on over to the Dobber Shop and grab a copy of the Prospects Report!

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In yesterday's Ramblings, we compared the 2025-26 fantasy seasons of a handful of forwards to other forwards from recent seasons. We used goals, assists, power-play points, shots, hits, blocks, penalty minutes, and face-off wins for our eight categories. We found the average per game "replacement level" values for each of those eight stats in each season, compared the performance of individual forwards in that season to the replacement-level value, and then saw who had similar performances. Some of them are quite surprising.

Today, we're going to do the same thing, but for defencemen. Which of the top fantasy defencemen from 2025-26 performed similarly to another player from the prior four years? Let's dig in.

These evaluations will remove face-off wins because we are comparing only among defencemen. If we were to compare across different positions, the values would change because of monster advantage forwards have in the face-off dot.  

We are limiting the sample to players who played at least 41 games in the season selected. Remember that this is all on a per-game basis, so if two players have similar overall fantasy value on that per-game basis, but one appeared in 80 games and the other in 50, the 80-game blue liner will have far superior overall value despite the similar per-game value.

Data from Evolving Hockey and Natural Stat Trick.

Quinn Hughes (2024-25) and Darren Raddysh (2025-26)

The 2024-25 campaign was the year Hughes really solidified himself as an elite fantasy defenceman regardless of format. He had 17 goals, 92 points, and 199 shots in 82 games the year before, but those were massive jumps compared to what he usually offered, and it was a wonder if it was a career-year blip or the start of a trend. He followed that performance with 16 goals, 76 points, and 192 shots in 68 games, which gave him the track record of being able to do more than just rack up assists and PP points. That came back down in 2025-26, but we would do well to remind ourselves that his 82-game averages across the 2023-2025 seasons were 18 goals and 214 shots.

That brings us to Raddysh who, considering his pre-season draft position, was the most valuable fantasy skater in basically any format. We might be wary of Raddysh making such a big leap because a lot of that jump was due to increased opportunity: Victor Hedman missed over half the season and was largely ineffective otherwise; Ryan McDonagh, Erik Cernak, and Emil Lilleberg combined to miss 87 games. That led to Raddysh earning way bigger minutes, including top PP time. With that said, his points per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 was 1.56, only a slight increase from the year before (1.49). The added minutes (PP or otherwise) made his raw numbers skyrocket, but his 5-on-5 production, on a per-minute basis, was pretty much the same as the year before. 

That is why we should have belief in Raddysh, provided he re-signs with the Lightning. This makes two years in a row of a top-10 points rate at 5-on-5 – it's just a matter of getting ice time and a top PP role. To alleviate concerns about his role: in the 20 games immediately after the Olympic break, with both Cernak and McDonagh in the lineup, Raddysh still skated 23:37 per game, or 3:27 more than the next-closest Tampa Bay blue liner.

Victor Hedman (2021-22) and Cale Makar (2025-26)

Using the per-game calculations I have, Makar has four of the top five seasons from a defenceman across the last five campaigns (the other is Roman Josi in 2021-22). Makar's only season that isn't a top-5 mark was the 2025-26 campaign, but it is 12^th in my data, or 8^th if we exclude his own prior seasons. Even when he wasn't his usual self, he still had one of the best fantasy seasons of the post-Bubble era.  

In the last five campaigns, there have been just seven instances of a rearguard managing at least 20 goals, 60 assists, and 200 shots. Makar and Josi have done it twice, Evan Bouchard (2025-26) and Erik Karlsson (2022-23) once, and then Hedman back in 2021-22. That will likely end up the apex of Hedman's fantasy value as he posted career-best marks in goals (20), assists (65), power-play points (38), and shots (219). He also managed 129 blocks, 93 hits, and 36 PIMs, so he brought some peripheral value to go with that great production. Given the brutal season Hedman just had (he discussed the mental health issues that caused him to step away from the team), it is a reminder of how good he's been not just in real life but in the fantasy realm. And not just good – legitimately elite at times.

Finally, we should mention a big reason for Makar's (relatively) down season was the Colorado Avalanche's awful power play. Had he averaged the same PPP per game in 2025-26 as he had across the prior two seasons, he adds roughly six PPPs to his total. That would have boosted his total goals and assists, and gave him probably the 5^th– or 6^th-best fantasy season for a defenceman in the last five years. If Colorado's power play can rebound in 2026-27…

Erik Karlsson (2022-23) and Moritz Seider (2025-26)

Now we get to the portion where we highlight how two wildly different fantasy profiles can wind up at roughly the same spot.

In 2022-23, Karlsson posted 25 goals and 101 points en route to his third Norris Trophy. It was the first time in over 30 years that a defenceman totaled at least 25 goals and 75 assists in the same season (the most recent was Al MacInnis in 1990-91, per Hockey Reference). In 2025-26, Seider had 10 goals and 50 assists. Despite that production disparity, they had roughly the same fantasy value at their position in their respective seasons.

This is what makes Seider such a special multi-cat defenceman. The 60 points are great, and if he can be a 55- to 65-point guy moving forward, it greatly alters his value compared to his 40- to 45-point expectations. But it's the fact he can do that with over two shots per game with a huge block total and healthy hit and PIM totals. Seider put up 84 fewer hits than the year before, but as we showed in a Ramblings last week, hit rates have been declining substantially among defenceman over the last couple of years. He is hitting less, but so is everyone else, so his drop doesn't adversely affect his fantasy value as much as we might think.

It will be very interesting to see how Seider is valued in multi-cat drafts this September. Makar will likely be the top drafted defenceman, and some mix of Hughes, Bouchard, and Zach Werenski after him, but how high will Seider's ADP be?

Rasmus Dahlin (2023-24) and Charlie McAvoy (2025-26)

The 2023-24 campaign saw Dahlin post substantial declines in points, PPPs, and PIMs per game. It also saw him post substantial improvements in shots and hits per game. Add in a modest increase in blocks, and the raw production drop wasn't as bad as it seemed. It still gave him the 27^th-best season of the last five years.

Enter McAvoy, who has the 26^th-best season of the last five years using the relative measurements. He played just 69 games, but managed 11 goals, and set a career-best with 50 assists and 23 PPPs. He provided marginal fantasy value in most stats, but the goals, assists, and PPPs per game made him a very valuable player. Though his rate of shots, PIMs, hits, and blocks weren't high, they weren't awful, so they provided some value. If a player can offer some value in 4/7 stats, and good-to-great value in the other three, it makes them a very valuable option overall.

That is what makes a lot of multi-cat leagues kind of like a jigsaw puzzle. On a per-game basis, McAvoy was great in some areas, but modest in others. If we can roster a second defenceman who can balance McAvoy's deficiencies, that's when fantasy rosters turn from middling to championship contenders. As with Seider, it will be interesting to see how highly (or not) McAvoy will be valued in drafts this fall.

Jakob Chychrun (2025-26) and Roman Josi (2025-26)

We finished yesterday with a pair of players from the 2025-26 season, so we'll do the same today, given what I think is the general vibe around their fantasy values. Using these measurements, Chychrun's 2025-26 season was the 30^th-best by a defenceman in the last five years. Josi's 2025-26 season, on the other hand, was 31^st. One defenceman feels like he's been hyped up by the fantasy community, and the other is being thrown aside like Woody in 'Toy Story'.

In fairness, we have to consider how much Josi has left in the tank. He has just 121 games played across the last two seasons, turned 36 years old earlier this month, and the Nashville Predators are at a crossroads as a franchise. The Washington Capitals, meanwhile, have a handful of younger players like Connor McMichael, Ryan Leonard, and Cole Hutson who seem ready to make a big impact on the franchise. It helps alleviate the aging parts of the roster and might make Chychrun a more appealing option.

The crux of all this is Washington's power play. John Carlson is gone, so Chychrun is locked into the top PP role, but the Caps finished 24^th by PP goals per minute. If they repeat that performance in 2026-27, Chychrun will not have a big PPP total like the elite fantasy defencemen. But if the Caps can improve that power play, and maybe even push towards a top-10 mark? That makes Chychrun's outlook a lot rosier.