Ramblings: Surgery for Troy Terry; Evaluating Free Agent Forwards in Marchment, Arvidsson, Lee, Zuccarello, Tolvanen, and Laine – June 19

Michael Clifford

2026-06-19

The 2026 NHL Entry Draft is next Friday, and any fantasy manager looking to read up on the prospects they need to know should grab a copy of Dobber's 2026 Fantasy Hockey Prospects Report! Not only does it cover this year's group of future stars, but it also dives into each team's prospect pool to give fantasy managers an idea of each prospects' expected arrival time, future upside, and a whole lot more. Support the Dobber Prospects team and order this year's edition of the Prospects Report!

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The NHL has concluded its investigation into Mike Babcock and in a released statement, has deemed him eligible to return to head coaching duties. The expectation is that he will be the next coach of the Edmonton Oilers, though an official announcement has yet to be made.

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The Anaheim Ducks announced that winger Troy Terry underwent hip surgery (an impingement) and that his recovery time is expected to take 5-6 months. Terry was in and out of the lineup last season and basically stopped practicing with the team, so that he needed this surgery makes sense. That timeline would put him back in the lineup sometime around, or between, American Thanksgiving and Christmas.

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In yesterday's Ramblings, we started going through this year's crop of unrestricted free agent forwards, focusing on what could be considered the top of the heap, at least from a fantasy perspective. Now that the offseason is in full swing, keeper and dynasty owners need to start re-shaping their fantasy rosters for next season, and knowing what this year's group of UFAs can do on the ice illustrates what their fantasy value has been, and can be elsewhere. So, let's finish our review of free agent forwards but shift our focus down the list a little bit.

Player data is from Evolving Hockey, Natural Stat Trick, and All Three Zones. Contract data is from PuckPedia.

Mason Marchment – LW

Across the last three seasons, Marchment has averaged 25 goals, 32 assists, 11 power-play points, 157 shots, 63 PIMs, 105 hits, and 32 blocks every 82 games. That is pretty good across-the-board coverage for a guy who averaged under 16 minutes a game in that span. That stretch includes 32 points in 39 games with Columbus, where he skated 17:41 per game with a lot of top PP time. If he skates 17-18 minutes a game with top PP time, he absolutely can be a 30-goal, 30-assist, 100-hit winger, and that's very good multi-cat value.

Unlike a number of the forwards we saw yesterday, Marchment does not rely on rush offence for his production. In fact, in 2025-26, his contributions off the rush were below the league average forward, whereas his contributions off the cycle/forecheck were above average:

That was not the case the season before when he was still in Dallas, but it didn't really matter: in 2024-25, he managed 2.24 points/60 minutes at 5-on-5 while playing a rush-heavy style, and in 2025-26 with Seattle and Columbus, he averaged 2.12 points/60 minutes playing a cycle/forecheck-heavy style. That kind of versatility should make fantasy managers a bit more interested in him, because wherever he lands, his fantasy value will be determined by the players he skates with and the role he has rather than how he's being asked to play.

Viktor Arvidsson – LW/RW

If Marchment has versatility in his playstyle, Arvidsson is the opposite. Here is how he's created his offence in each of the last two years:

  • 2024-25 season: 75% above average contributions off the rush, -10% off the cycle/forecheck
  • 2025-26 season: 65% above average contributions off the rush, 11% off the cycle/forecheck

On top of that one-dimension offence, Arvidsson doesn't have much playmaking to his game, as his rate of scoring chance assists in 2025-26 was 9% above average, a fraction of his individual scoring chance rate of 78%:

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This isn't breaking news to any veteran fantasy manager, but Arvidsson is a shooter, not a dual-threat winger, and he is much more reliant on creating off the rush than off the cycle.

As mentioned yesterday, that difference in playstyle is important to note because the league has been moving away from rush-heavy offensive styles in recent seasons. That the Carolina Hurricanes moved towards a rush-heavy offence, and won a Stanley Cup as a result, might change that equation, but as things stand, few teams rely on shots off the rush for their goals as they did 3-4 years ago. Arvidsson just happened to skate for a Boston Bruins team that did like to create off the rush.

At 33 years old and no longer a guy who will play 17-19 minutes a game, Arvidsson's 25-goal, 54-point effort in 2025-26 might be the highwater mark for the rest of his career. This is not a player to chase on the offseason fantasy trade market.

Anders Lee – LW             

Lee turns 36 years old next month and has appeared in 969 total regular season and playoff games. That is a lot of miles on the body, but he still averaged 24 goals, 24 assists, 216 shots, 106 hits, and 40 PIMs every 82 games across the last two years. The offensive play-driving skills have still been great, so it's a matter of whether he can hold on anywhere close to this level, or if age-related decline is going to start hitting hard.

One interesting note about Lee is he had a lot of scoring chance assists (how often he assisted on a teammate's scoring chance) in 2025-26, which is unusual for him:

The 2025-26 campaign saw Lee post a career-high rate of assists per 60 minutes at 5-on-5, and that was after setting a career-high in those assists back in 2024-25. He isn't a high-end playmaker or anything, but his 5-on-5 assist rate from 2021-2024 was that of a mid-tier fourth-liner, and his 5-on-5 assist rate over the last two years is that of a high-end second-liner. He is not a guy who just sits in front of the net and whacks the puck into the goalie's pads, hoping to squeak one through. He has added some playmaking to his profile, making him more of a dual-threat option. Lee won't explode for a 40-assist season, but he's absolutely capable of a 25-goal, 25-assist season in the right spot, and with his solid peripherals, that is a good multi-cat winger.

Mats Zuccarello – RW

It seems hard to believe that Zuccarello, who has been Kirill Kaprizov's line mate for years, will be moving on, but the Wild have four roster spots to fill with $9.5M in cap space. If Zuccarello is looking for something like a $5M cap hit, the Wild may not have much of a choice here.

Should Zuccarello move on, it's hard to say what he'll be elsewhere, just because Kaprizov skated 56% of his 5-on-5 time with Zuccarello on his wing over the last three years, and that includes games where Kaprizov was in the lineup and Zuccarello was not. Regardless, if there's one thing Zuccarello did well in 2025-26, that was find his teammates for scoring chances:

If Zuccarello moves on, it's fair to wonder if he can keep up those great playmaking numbers skating, for example, on Boston's second line with Casey Mittelstadt, Pittsburgh's third line skating with Ben Kindel, or Anaheim's third line skating with Mason McTavish, as opposed to Minnesota's top line skating with Kaprizov. Zuccarello also turns 39 years old in September and puts up modest hit and PIM totals. A guy whose peripherals are anywhere between above average and poor, who also isn't a heavy goal scorer, turning 39 years old and leaving the line of one of the top offensive wingers in the league? Red flags abound for fantasy managers.

Eeli Tolvanen – LW/RW

It was a rough season for Tolvanen with 12 goals, his lowest total since 2021-22. Of course, this is shooting percentage driven as he shot 8.5% against a three-year average of 14%. If he shoots 14% in 2025-26, he scores 20 goals. A goal drop heading into free agency is never a great sign, but there's a clear culprit as to what happened here.

That doesn't completely absolve Tolvanen of a down year. When we look at some tracking data like zone entries and scoring chance assists, how often he contributed off the cycle or forecheck, as well as his shot rate relative to the league average, it was only the shot rate that was above league average in 2025-26:

In fairness, this is abnormal for him. He has never shown good playmaking or transition data, but his 2024-25 season saw him create very well off the rush and 2023-24 he created very well off the cycle/forecheck. Tolvanen has had productive seasons in the past playing one style or the other, he just didn't do either in 2025-26. Again, though, it should be mentioned this was a team-wide problem, as Seattle saw both their rush and cycle/forecheck offence collapse when compared to the prior two seasons. Tolvanen can post a 20/20 season with 200 hits, but he won't do it in this kind of environment. Keep an eye on his landing spot – he seems primed for a rebound.

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Patrik Laine – LW/RW

It is worth quickly mentioning Laine because he had only five games played in 2025-26, so he's going to be overlooked in some leagues. Though he's a goal scorer, he is not a pure one-dimensional shooter like Arvidsson. Back in 2024-25, when Laine played 52 games, he was above the league average for zone entries per 60 minutes and 26% above average for carrying the puck into the offensive zone:

The numbers weren't the same in 2022-23 when he played 55 games in Columbus, but he had similarly strong zone entry work. He isn't a playmaker, but he's not just waiting to rip a wrist shot on a 2-on-1, either. He needs playmakers to get him the puck, but he can do the leg work through the neutral zone. He is also not a player who relies on only rush shots, or only cycle/forecheck shots; Laine can do both, and it makes him a versatile offensive player.

Of course, the injuries are the problem. He hasn't reached the 60-game mark in any of the last five seasons and has averaged 37 games played per season in that span; there is just no reliability from him health-wise. All the same, he will be obscenely cheap in fantasy drafts or fantasy trade markets, and getting 50-55 games from him might be worth the draft/trade price.

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