Well what a crazy day that was yesterday in the NHL world. Give NHL GMs cap space, a weaker draft class, a barren free agent group, and it turns out that making a trade isn't actually that difficult!  

We saw Bowen Byram moved for the fourth overall pick, and some secondary pieces. Jordan Kyrou landed in Washington for Connor McMichael, a first, and Milton Gastrin. Simon Nemec and Maxim Tsyplakov were shipped to Calgary in exchange for two late future firsts, an early 2026 second round pick, and prospect Etienne Morin. The Senators also flipped the ninth overall pick that they received in the Brady Tkachuk trade and received William Eklund back in addition to prospect Kasper Haltunen.

On that note, my post-mortem on the Sens from last week is already out of date, but the general thought in it isn't and that's noting that the Sens are at a bit of a crossroads with needing to move forward with their current skater core built to win very soon, and trying to do that with a weak prospect pool, and a bunch of first round picks as a result of the Brady Tkachuk trade. They made their first splash with Eklund, but they likely need at least one more in order to keep themselves from falling behind in the arms race that is the Atlantic Division.

Cliffy was busy yesterday with the write ups, and you can find his fantasy take articles here.

The deal that I thought was the most interesting was the Kyrou trade, with Connor McMichael going the other way. As someone who went to University in London Ontario, and follows the Knights more than any Junior team as a result, my ears perked up when I heard McMichael was getting moved. He may not have played with Robert Thomas there, but having developed in the same system it would be nice if they could find some chemistry together at the NHL level.

The other angle of this deal, is that McMichael's contract should still come in at a lower AAV than Kyrou's despite the fact that they are both coming off of 46-point seasons, and McMichael was playing two minutes a game on the penalty kill along with more than half of his zone starts being in the defensive end. Meanwhile, Kyrou was seeing twice the power play time that McMichael was, no PK time, and was starting two-thirds of his shifts in the offensive zone. A one-for-one flip here wouldn't have been an awful move by St. Louis, but getting a first round pick and a recent second round selection as well? Masterful move.

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On the flip side, Chicago paid a ransom for a top-pair Dman, Calgary paid a high price for a top-four defenceman with upside. Defencemen don't come cheap, and even the ones that are drafted early in the first round sometimes fizzle out or turn into whipping posts for their franchises.

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Now, as a result of these recent trades, we have already seen some shifts in the NHL draft order, which has pulled some attention towards which players might be available in those spots. There is plenty of content out on the internet that focuses on prospect analysis, mock drafts, and other NHL Draft centered discussions, but I find that fantasy draft ratings, and especially those with some reasoning and context to back it up is lacking, so we'll try to fill the gap here.

Today I'll be running through the top-25 picks as they are currently rated on my draft list for my 24-team dynasty cap league, where I currently have picks 20 and 30. I like to know not just the players within the range of my picks, because it's always good to know whether it's worth it to move up or down before a tier drops off.

With fantasy prospect drafts, I value both a player's ceiling as well as how well they may retain their value as a trade asset over the next few years. This is my draft ranking from consumption of many draft rankings and stories, tinkering based on my own draft preferences, and understanding the preferences of my leaguemates. Right now, I have my own tiers from 1-2, 3, 4-9, 10-14, 15-25. After that point, it tails off into a large pool of players who might hit but likely won't, and you're throwing darts based on whose prospect writing you like best.

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Now let's get to it.

Tier 1:

1 – Gavin McKenna (LW)

McKenna has had a lot of scrutiny on him, but as a first-overall fantasy pick he seems like the safe option. At this point in the draft you really don't want to over-think things.

2 – Ivar Stenberg (LW)

Stenberg may have a slightly higher ceiling than McKenna by some outlets, but the floor is also lower and McKenna's pedigree keeps him afloat as the number one.

Tier 2:

3 – Viggo Bjorck (C)

His size may knock him down some NHL draft boards, but it may end up being a bit of a plus for fantasy purposes as he should be a top-six centre eventually and the height might keep him away from some of the bigger defensive responsibilities.

Tier 3:

4 – Caleb Malhotra (C)

Here's an obvious spot where my preference of forwards over defencemen shines though, with Malhotra being the last of the higher tier forwards that we'll see. Malhotra showed very well in the OHL, and his polished game seems to have some overlooking his offensive ceiling, which is a top-line centre, though likely still below the elite players in the league.

5 – Cameron Reid (D)

Reid seems to be the top D in the public sphere, though there are a lot of options in the top-10 this year. It seems like his overall ceiling in highest across the board, and there aren't too many questions that his offence should translate.

6 – Carson Carels (D)

Similar to Reid, the floor and ceiling are high across the board, and Carels' PNHLe number (what his current production in the OHL indicates about what his ceiling NHL production might project to) is quite impressive.

7 – Daxon Rudolph (D)

Rudolph doesn't have the same defensive presence as the other two above him, but his offensive impacts are the same, if not maybe a bit higher than Reid and Carels. I might like him more than others, but his profile seems to fit those defencemen who retain value, and end up making the jump to the NHL in more offensive roles. The risk is higher though, which knocks him down the draft board a bit, and even then seven seems like it could be high compared to the 8-11 range where he will likely slot for the NHL draft.

8 – Alberts Smits (D)

Maybe one of the players that it seems everything you read online feels like it's parroted from everyone else, so it's tough to get a great handle on him in what can sometimes be a bit of an echo chamber. It seems like he should be one of the most NHL-ready Dmen, but the offence is a bit of a whuestion mark whether he can just be a solid second-pairing 25- to 30-point player, or whether he turns into much more and becomes a 45-point top-pairing player.

9 – Wyatt Cullen (LW)

Cullen is shown here as being in the same tier as Malhotra, but there is a bit of a gap between the two in terms of floor and upside. That being said, they are both within the range where if I owned fourth overall, and was being asked about trading down to ninth, I would be interested as long as the sweetener was notable and worthwhile. Cullen developed as a smaller player, but his growth spurt recently has put his skills into the bigger body, which gives him an extra weapon in his arsenal. This is the end of my tier where I'm really excited about owning the players this year.

Tier 4:

10 – Tynan Lawrence (C)

I have seen some polarizing opinions on Lawrence, and while the numbers haven't progressed this past year, many are still hopeful that the skills will translate to offensive numbers once he is adjusted to the speed from moving up levels. He has some time now at the NCAA level to continue on that runway.  

11 – Keaton Verhoeff (D)

When players are constantly rated high in the public sphere, but no one seems to really want to go to bat for them or rate them even higher, then it sets off some alarm bells that these players are just being rated more highly because of the consensus rather than because people believe in the ranking. That's what I have seen a bit with Lawrence and a lot with Verhoeff, which drops them down into the next tier below where you may have seen them on most public lists. The upside still does seem to be about as high as the 4-9 group, but the floor is much lower.

12 – Nikita Klepov (LW)

I lean towards OHL players because it seems the offensive players can both thrive and grow here, and the league gets a lot of exposure which puts those players into the heads of other GMs, meaning those prospects are much more easily flipped for productive NHLers. Klepov fits the mould of those guys I like to take, and his offensive talents are also something I would be very happy to hold onto and watch grow. There aren't any big red flags here either.

13 – Oscar Hemming (LW)

After his brother has plateaued as a prospect, Oscar is looking to show that he isn't necessarily going to follow the same path. It sounds like the floor is higher here than his brother, and his hockey IQ will allow him to better use his shot. The size is probably going to keep him high on NHL boards too.

14 – Ryan Lin (D)

Lin profiles as a more modern defenseman, who excels in transition and doesn't need to be exceptionally physical to do it. We have seen some of these rearguards thrive, but many falter and don't end up making a significant NHL impact. The upside isn't quite as high as some of the other Dmen, but the intelligence and puck skills will keep him afloat. I have read less about his red flags than many of the others to follow, but he's fairly firmly settled at the bottom of this tier for me.

Tier 5:

I'm not going to break down this following tier, but the general idea is that these are the guys that you're waiting a number of years for, and while they may end up as top-six players or a top-three defenceman, the higher likelihood is that they turn out to be middle-of-the-lineup depth more than anything, which means swinging for upside is likely your best bet.

Ethan Belchetz

Mathis Preston

Elton Hermansson

Gleb Pugachyov

Adam Novotny

Liam Ruck

Xavier Villeneuve

Oliver Suvanto

Maddox Dagenais

Marcus Ruck

Tommy Bleyl

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Rick Roos is looking for a few more questions to be answered in his upcoming mailbag article. To get your questions to him, private message "rizzeedizzee" via the DobberHockey Forums or email [email protected] with "Roos Mailbag" as the subject line. No one does a deeper dive on your questions than Rick, and now is the time to get those keeper, free agency, and draft questions in before it’s too late.

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Related to the draft picks that were on the move, Mackie Samoskevich is someone I am going to keep an eye on in drafts heading into next year. Last year we saw Washington pay a second round pick to get Justin Sourdif out of Florida, and he ended up being a key part of Washinton's depth forward group this year, and was on my roster for half of this past season for my Roto Leeague Championship.

Samoskevich is also being pulled out of Florida for what might be viewed as an excessive return of draft picks, but could it be that we see a similar jump from the 23-year-old? Well, the signs are there that a breakout is coming. Samoskevich posted 29 points in 55 games across the three quarters last season where he wasn't stapled to the fourth line, including finishing the season with 11 points in his last 16 games, which would be a 58-point pace in next year's 84-game season. He's half a season away from his breakout threshold, and I find those can come a little early if there is a significant Pro season already under a player's belt outside of the NHL, for example Samoskevich's 62-game, 54-point season in the AHL in 2023-2024.

Would it be too bold, or not bold enough after that to say that we see 50 points out of Samoskevich this season, with a stronger second half that what he puts up to start the season?

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NHL pre-season schedules are coming out and it does seem as though they should be wrapped up on Sat Sept 26^th, meaning we could see the NHL season start on Tuesday Sept 29^th.

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A quick question to end off the Ramblings: with the shift to an 84-game slate, would it be preferable to readers to digest the stats based on previous 82-game paces, or projecting for 84-game paces, or does it not matter as long as enough context is given?

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See you next Wednesday, and if you have any fantasy hockey questions or comments you can find me on BlueSky @alexdmaclean.