Overnight, depending on where you live, Pierre LeBrun reported that the Tampa Bay Lightning signed defenceman John Carlson to a two-year contract with an $8.5M average annual value. Carlson had 60 points in 71 games last season, splitting time between the Washington Capitals and Anaheim Ducks. He turns 37 years old in January and has a chance to win a second career Stanley Cup by adding himself to the Lightning roster.

Let's break it down.

What Tampa Bay Gets

Here is the Darren Raddysh replacement.

In a Ramblings last week, I wrote about Carlson's playmaking ability and how he compared very well over the last couple of seasons to elite blue liners Cale Makar and Quinn Hughes. Go read that for a bit more of an in-depth look at Carlson's passing skills, but it's not just about how good Carlson is at passing the puck. The impact is how good Carlson is at passing the puck compared to the guy he's replacing, and in this case it's Raddysh.

Two things are true here. The first is that using 5-on-5 tracking data from All Three Zones, Raddysh has typically been much better in transition out of the defensive zone and into the offensive zone over the last two years than Carlson. Given the age gap between them, that makes some sense.

The second thing is that Carlson has been a much better playmaker than Raddysh as his rate of assists on teammate scoring chances, and assists both off the rush and cycle, far exceed his predecessor:

Carlson shouldn't need to do a lot of the transition work as guys like Charle-Edouard D'Astous and J.J. Moser are typically very good at that. The upgrade in playmaking should be a big deal for Tampa Bay forwards, though whether Carlson can find the same success on the power play is an open question. Also, with the Lightning blue line healthy (which they weren't last year), Carlson will be in tough to skate 24 minutes a game as he did with the Anaheim Ducks.

A lot will also depend on Victor Hedman. He played just 33 games last season and performed poorly whenever he was in the lineup. Hedman stated that he left the team to address mental health issues, so the hope is he'll be back to top-pair status for the 2026-27 season. If he can get back to that level, with the breakout seasons D'Astous and Moser just had, plus veterans like Erik Cernak and Ryan McDonagh, it's not hard to see Carlson's ice time taking a haircut from the 23:10 per game he earned last season. Even with a top PP role, if the Lightning have their full complement of defencemen healthy and playing well, my guess is Carlson is more in the 20- to 22-minute range than the 22- to 24-minute range.

Carlson's fantasy value is based on a lot of questions we just won't have the answers to until well into the 2026-27 season. Questions around Hedman's rebound, Moser's ability to repeat his performance from last season, D'Astous building off a very good rookie season, and the veterans playing well. If all goes to plan, I imagine the blue line ice time spread looks similar to what the Carolina Hurricanes' from last season, and everyone ends up in the 18- to 22-minute range. The added benefit is to keep the veterans fresh, or fresher than they otherwise would be, for the playoffs.

The move to Tampa Bay is a great one in and of itself. The Lightning have finished top-5 by goal scoring at 5-on-5 in each of the last two seasons, and they are tied for 7^th by total power play goals. Overall, Tampa Bay is the highest scoring team in the NHL over the last two years. Carlson can get back to the 60-point mark, but be wary of his shooting percentage. He shot 9.2% last year, a career-best, and considerably higher than his three-year average (5.1%). Carlson can reach double-digit goals again, I would just hold off on expecting him to push to, or past, the 15-goal mark.

This isn't great news for D'Astous. He seems to clearly be the sixth defenceman (if not seventh, depending on Emil Lilleberg), and unless the team runs with two defencemen on the second PP unit, D’Astous may be moved off the power play entirely.

It also isn’t good news for Lilleberg. The Lightning do like to run 11-forward/7-defencemen lineup at times, but on the nights they don’t and everyone is healthy, one of Lilleberg and D’Astous will be in the press box.

Who This Helps

Tampa Bay forwards

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John Carlson

Who This Hurts

Victor Hedman

Charle-Edouard D'Astous

Emil Lilleberg