Work has begun on the 2026-27 Dobber Hockey Fantasy Guide! There isn’t an official release date yet, but it should be released in the next few weeks. It has everything fantasy managers need to prep for the upcoming season including projections, team-by-team breakdowns, advanced stats outlooks, rookies/call-ups to watch for, and a whole lot more. It is also constantly updated right up until the start of the regular season, so head to the Dobber Shop to pre-order your copy of the 2026-27 Fantasy Guide. Next week I’ll include some more details on what I’m working on.

Nick Robertson avoided arbitration with the Penguins, signing a two-year deal worth $3.25M per season. It was higher than I was expecting for someone who has been at best a third-line winger to this point, playing for a team that already has 10 options for its four middle-six wing spots.

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It feels like we have hit a dead spot in the summer, where all the insiders and hockey accounts have gone quiet, and there's no news to speak of other than arbitration dates and further speculation on previous reports. 

Well, today let's take a look at some of the players remaining on the FA pile and the trade block, and see if we can forecast how the fantasy landscape may shirt between now and the end of September. 

(The NHL season is scheduled to begin on Sept 29^th, with the full schedule released tomorrow – Thursday July 16^th. I'll be breaking down the H2H schedule need-to-knows in the Guide again this year, noting all the key points I look out when planning my route to a championship in H2H leagues. You can pre-order a copy here.)

With each passing day it feels more likely that Jason Robertson, Matthew Knies, Morgan Rielly, Elias Pettersson, and Jordan Binnington are going to stay put – at least until the start of the season for those latter two, who might be more suited to an in-season deal when a team needs to shake things up. 

Robertson sticking around in Dallas keeps most of their outlook the same, with Seguin likely either on LTIR or filling in Mavrik Bourque's ice time from the end of the season. Knies' outlook in Toronto remains consistent, while the rest of that lineup undergoes a massive shift. For Rielly that shift means a step back from any power play exposure, though perhaps some easier minutes help him more in the transition game. Pettersson and Binnington are more volatile assets, and while a trade could unlock their potential, I am not going to be bumping them up my draft lists based on a hope. It does feel like Pettersson will be moved at some point before the deadline, whether to Detroit, Ottawa, Philadelphia (much cheaper to acquire than Carlsson and maybe could still be a #1C anyways), or somewhere else for fantasy managers to get excited about, but don't expect it to be a fast process, or an immediate turnaround either. 

That does still leave us with quite a few names who will likely be on the move in trades. Dylan Larkin and Connor Hellebuyck are both similar in that it feels like they should be traded, but the lack of available landing spots is a sticking point. If stubbornness prevails, then neither has a new team by Christmas, but if something changes then they could be on a plane to a new home within 24 hours. 

Both would make a big impact on a new squad. For Larkin it feels most likely that he ends up in Minnesota, while Hellebuyck to Buffalo almost feels inevitable now. That would negatively affect the value of incumbents at the same position like Alex Lyon (also assuming Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen is part of the return), Danila Yurov, and Joel Eriksson Ek, while bringing up the ceiling on most of the rest of the team. For Helle and Larkin themselves, the change in production may be seen more in their attitude, because if they aren't moved then there may be some resentment, as well as a lot of heavy media coverage, leading to a sag in numbers this year.

Alexander Nikishin is also rumoured to be shopped, which seems like Carolina would be letting a stud go, but we also don't know his contract ask and Carolina doesn't seem to make mistakes with defensemen that they let walk. It would be a risk for whoever takes him on, but the upside is huge, and that would be the case for fantasy managers as well. If he is traded, he would likely be brought in as someone who could help with a power play, whereas in Carolina he only received 30% of the available man advantage ice time. He could be in for a big jump in production in the right scenario. He's also a multi-category stud. 

For the remaining Canes, if Nikishin is moved then Joel Nystrom would have a path to regular, everyday minutes, but not much else would change. 

Among the remaining free agents, there aren't a lot of options left. The big names are mostly offensive wingers with one flaw or another, some risk/reward depth defensemen, and a couple of backup goalie options. 

Up front, Vladimir Tarasenko, Eeli Tolvanen, Anthony Mantha, and Patrick Kane, are all likely to be fantasy relevant next year, and unless they land in Calgary or Winnipeg, their perceived fantasy value is likely to receive a boost just based on the potential lineup and an impact they could have. For example, it seems like Tarasenko's heaviest rumoured landing spot is Edmonton. If he lands there everyone immediately pencils him next to McDavid, where maybe he recaptures his magic and is a 70+ point scorer again – especially after his hot streak to end last season. However, Tank likely wouldn't be on PP1, leaving him as likely in the 45- to 50-point range at even strength, and a couple more on the second power play unit, and that's what he would be on most teams at this point. If you own any of these guys, then you can either hold, or sell after they sign, but don't bother selling yet, as their value is likely going to spike between now and September.

Looking around the league, the Canadiens (ideally a 2C) and Blackhawks (as a Connor Bedard fill-in) could both use another forward, but both of them are looking for centers. New Jersey (Stefan Noesen) and Anaheim (Troy Terry) could both look at wing fillers for injured players, but aside from that most teams look fairly set.

If I had to lay out my best guesses on landing spots, it would be Tarasenko in Edmonton, Tolvanen in New Jersey, and Mantha signing with the Rangers. 

Patrick Kane may end up home in Buffalo, but that feels like it would only work if Jack Quinn is shipped out and Kane took his place. Otherwise there just isn't space in the lineup for Kane's homecoming. Since Kane looks to be moving on from Detroit, it likely is with an eye to get back to the playoffs. His best bets there would be Edmonton (who could maybe fit both him and Tarasenko – like the Rangers tried a few years ago), or looking to usurp Max Shabonov for the third-line wing spot in Minnesota before Shabonov even plays a game for the team. 

With the rest of the bunch, only Nick Blankenberg, John Klingberg, and Connor Ingram look to have much name value to start, and could have some standard league draft value depending on the landing spot. For Blankenberg and Klingberg that would look like a roster where they could see second-pairing minutes and some PP2 time to boot. For Ingram, there really aren't many goaltending tandems that aren't locked in for the start of the year (if any) so he might see his best bet in Vancouver, expecting another Thatcher Demko injury – it could work for the Canucks on a cheap deal too where he would pass through waivers at the start of the season, and could be traded if there is a goalie injury or opening that crops up elsewhere. 

There's also the remaining RFA group, and the question of whether we will see another offersheet. Does Philly take the $18M allotted for Leo Carlsson and offer 90% of it to Adam Fantilli? Or maybe they only need half of it to target Connor McMichael with a $9 Million cap hit to pry him out of St. Louis for a first, second, and third? He wouldn't be the top line centre they desperately need though, so the latter feels unlikely, at least from Philly. Adam Fantilli seems like the most likely target at this point, though wouldn't he have signed one by now if there was something out there? It feels like we may be done with offersheets for this summer. 

Putting that all together, I would love to suspend reality for a minute and outline the five-way deal that I had to stitch together to solve a lot of issues all in one deal. None of this is simple, and none of it is going to happen exactly like this, but it will hopefully highlight just how convoluted it can be sometimes to make everyone happy. 

Minnesota ends up with Dylan Larkin (partially retained) and Elvis Merzlikins (half retained), Carolina ends up with Connor Hellebuyck, Detroit ends up with Cayden Lindstrom, Danila Yurov and Alexander Nikishin, Winnipeg ends up with Ryan Hartman, firsts from Carolina and Winnipeg, and Pyotr Kochetkov, while Columbus nets Jesper Wallstedt. 

Now bring your disbelief back in, and explain to me how complicated this all is. Teams don't always line up with what a team has, wants, and is willing to part with to make a deal. When players like Larkin and Hellebuyck control their destinations and limit things down to three or four teams, sometimes it means that other teams need to be looped in to help balance the ins and the outs to get things across the line. Either someone is going to have to give in, trades are going to have to get complicated, or they just won't get done until something changes. All the hypothetical armchair GM deals are fun, but they hardly every account for every angle. 

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Rick Roos is looking for a few more mailbag questions to be answered in next week’s article. To get your questions to him, private message "rizzeedizzee" via the DobberHockey Forums or email [email protected] with "Roos Mailbag" as the subject line. No one does a deeper dive on your questions than Rick, and now is the time to get those keeper and draft questions in before it’s too late.

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If you're looking for some real longshots to make the NHL right away out of the draft, the best indication is how early the player signs their ELC. We had Oliver Suvanto (WAS) and Malte Gustafsson (NYI) sign their first contracts yesterday. Both are likely too far down the depth chart to have a real shot this year, but they are two of the more polished players, and could be in the NHL sooner than the usual development timeline for mid-first-round players. 

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See you next Wednesday, and if you have any fantasy hockey questions or comments you can find me on BlueSky @alexdmaclean.