Ramblings: Point’s Performance; Recapping A Dynasty Prospect Draft & Reviewing Some Recent Fantasy Trades (Jul 22)
Alexander MacLean
2026-07-22
Jason Robertson and the Dallas Stars agreed to a one-year $12 Million contract, which kicks the can down the road to when the Stars may have a bit more cap next season, and where Robertson will probably sign with them for at least $14 Million. This also likely makes the trade chatter between Dallas and Pittsburgh die down in the meantime.
Dallas can now sort out their cap situation just by selling off Sam Steel, Radek Faksa, or Nils Lundkvist for picks, and running with 20 skaters, two above the minimum. All-in-all, they have options, and are not going to be forced into another big move just because of the cap.
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Brayden Point's disappointing season last year led to some wacky underlying numbers. I had a leaguemate asking in our general chat what we thought of Point for this upcoming year, and here was the gist of my reply after looking into it:
Point's drop off was almost completely on the power play (20/30 of the points he lost). Beside that, he was super lucky with his team shooting over 15% with him on the ice. I think with Darren Raddysh‘s point bomb gone from the power play, Point gets re-involved more on the power play, to the level of scoring 25-30 PPPs again. The even strength scoring may stay a little depressed though, as there's no indication of that being set for a rebound. If anything, the shooting percentage will regress and hold it down a little. Overall, I say it’s a bit of a middle ground where he bounces back but is still under a point per game (maybe 78 points in 84 games as a full season pace).
The Bolts are also hoping for a bit more production from their bottom six, a healthier season on D, and some more reliable goaltending behind Andrei Vasilevskiy, which would all help the team overall. Regardless of Point's stats, they should be a lock for the playoffs again this year.
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The NHL schedule release was last Thursday, and it's something I always dive into for the fantasy leagues. I had my schedule article completed for the guide before I went to bed that same day, and the next morning I had started looking into trade options.
In one league I sent out an offer of Noah Cates for Jaden Schwartz, and ended up moving Blake Coleman for him instead. In another I was looking at Erik Karlsson for someone like Darnell Nurse or Mackenzie Weegar, but haven't found any takers on reshaping my defence core yet.
You'll have to buy the guide to get my full breakdown, which includes teams to target or avoid based on your H2H championship weeks, and many other notes on how to best navigate the gaps, peaks, and valleys in the schedule. Take the first week of the season for example. It's usually quite lopsided as some teams start out with more or less volume, and you can much more easily target those teams with more games (the Rangers and Canucks this year have four games the first six days) or avoid the teams with less volume (the Senators only play once in the first six-day week).
I will say though, if you're the owner of a few Washington Capitals players, then you're going to be happy come H2H playoff time.
To pre-order/buy the guide, you can head over to the DobberHockey Shop, and we'll wait for you to get back. The guide is what supports most of what we provide on this site, and it's filled with articles covering schedule, trends, analytics, rookies, and the most in-depth team-by-team breakdown you will be able to find for your fantasy team. Don't fall behind the competition this early.
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I did also have a preliminary discussion around taking on some salary on top of Cates for an upgrade with another team, but that didn't work out for the specific player he initially offered. However, knowing that team wanted to shed a bit of cap, I decided to look into something bigger. I offered up my Dylan Larkin, Noah Cates, Michael Hage, Yegor Zavragin, and another prospect for Nikita Kucherov and Jared McCann. We went back and forth a little on the last prospect, and ended up adding both Tristan Luneau and Sasha Boisvert to push it over the line. I add $1.8 Million in cap, lose a couple of possible cheap fillers who are still minors eligible in Boisvert and Luneau, and had to give up my favourite prospect to own in Hage, but the offensive boost should hopefully cement my contender status for the year – before Kucherov's next contract has me back to the drawing board in a year.
There is a lot to plan for with a deal like that, and knowing that my farm team was well stocked enough to take that hit and still be able to provide a couple of fillers over the next two years is a big part of it. It might also mean having to sell off Vladimir Tarasenko depending on his new deal (and if it's more than $3 Million per year), but adding 40 points on top of Larkin's numbers, solidifying RW which can be tougher to find, and upgrading on Cates too with a few players ideal for the H2H playoffs, it felt like a worthwhile gamble to make.
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In that same Salary Cap Fantasy league we had the draft start on Wednesday last week, and there were a few surprises even in the top-10 picks. Tynan Lawrence and Ethan Belchetz went early with picks #7 and #8, but with how defencemen take longer to develop and also end up with higher salaries relative to their production, them being picked earlier than expected shouldn't really be too much of a surprise.
Wyatt Cullen went at #6, and he was that high on my list too. If you can get him in the #5-#9 range in fantasy drafts, he will probably pay dividends. I have previously compared him to Beckett Sennecke with the hands and the recent growth spurt, and that kind of potential without real flaws is pretty rare in this draft class.
Carson Carels ended up going at pick #10, and despite him having a solid statistical profile coupled with a high floor, he's someone that was lower than 10th on my final list. I see Carels more as a Ryan Suter type (with better peripherals), and on a team that already has Simon Nemec, Zayne Parekh, Hunter Brzustewicz, and Henry Mews for offence, Carels may be a lot less likely to end up running a top PP, which caps his offence. He might still be great in multicat, but that lack of PP offence would hold him back from being a top-tier fantasy asset.
Alberts Smits dropped all the way to pick 15, which is a big drop for a top-five player in the NHL draft. The uncertainty in his offensive ceiling really makes him a riskier fantasy pick, because no one wants a second-pair Defenseman who doesn't add many points when there are still 60-point wingers on the board.
Another deal I made recently was trading the 20th pick in our draft in exchange for Patrick Kane and a later pick. I'm confident enough in my drafting that I can find a bit of value with a late pick (likely an older drop as opposed to a later 2026 draftee). As for Kane, I'm hoping he comes in on a cheaper deal with bonuses, though neither Buffalo nor Chicago where he's rumoured to sign have cap trouble at the moment, so it's not a given. He still has some skill left, pacing for 70-points last season on a Red Wings team that didn't look dangerous at all in the second half – which is where Kane took over and scored 23 points in his final 19 games.
The selection made at pick 20 was exactly who I would have taken had I kept the pick, Red Wings selection J.P. Hurlbert, who on my final list was up to my #13th ranked player. He seems like a very solid all-around option in a year where most players after the top ten or so have at least one big flaw to their game.
The thought of Kane inking a 35+ contract had me look at Vladimir Tarasenko as well, knowing he's 34 and wondering if he could wait out until his 35th birthday and then sign a bonus laden deal, but that's unlikely to transpire as he doesn't turn 35 until December. Next summer!
Back to the draft, the same team had picks 19 and 21, surrounding my #20 pick. I had originally thought about trying to get one of the two in order to try and select the Ruck twins, but I didn't have the right assets to make it work. In the end, the other GM at 19 and 21 ended up selecting both. They're either going to thrive or fall short as a pair, so it's the ultimate risk/reward double-down scenario.
This GM actually ended up with this pair of picks as a result of a trade, where he sent Leo Carlsson out in exchange for Adam Fantilli and the two late firsts. He was in a bind for cap space, while the other GM acquiring Carlsson had space to spare, less need for the picks, and was looking to consolidate more skill at the top of the lineup. That's going to be a fun one to look back on.
Oliver Suvanto and Mathis Preston went back to back at picks 26 and 27, and capped off the top tier that I saw for players that might be able to land on a top line in the future (although likely more in a support role rather than coming close to carrying their own line).
After trading my pick at #20 away, my first selection was #34, where I took Jaxon Cover. His story on its own is fantastic, and because of the very recent transition into hockey, he has a steeper runway than most prospects. The hockey sense has to catch up a bit as well, but if he can figure it out, there's going to be no one with a higher upside left in your drafts past pick 30. To boot, he plays for the London Knights, who seem to have a conveyor belt set up pumping out a prospect in the mid-late first round every year.
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See you next Wednesday, and if you have any fantasy hockey questions or comments you can find me on BlueSky @alexdmaclean.
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I would be interesting to see the full first round results of your draft!
There’s a whole set of them on the forum under the thread title of “Post your 2026 Prospect Draft Results”, including this one.
Thanks, that was a good read.