We are less than a week away from the release of Dobber's 2026-27 Fantasy Hockey Guide, which is available for pre-order now in the Dobber Shop! This includes player projections, team-by-team breakdowns, offseason changes, rookie and call-ups to monitor, and a whole lot more. It is also constantly updated right through to the start of the regular season. Get ahead of your fantasy league mates and pre-order a copy of the Dobber Fantasy Guide!

*

In my Ramblings on Tuesday, I reviewed some early average draft position (ADP) data from Underdog Fantasy. That write-up focused strictly on centres like Macklin Celebrini, Wyatt Johnston, Adam Fantilli, Sebastian Aho, and others.

Underdog Fantasy – which is in no way affiliated with me, Dobber, or Dobber Hockey in general – is generally the place where we can get the earliest ADP data. Each year, they run a best ball league called the Best Puck Classic. For anyone unfamiliar with best ball formats, they are draft-and-hold leagues where you draft a team before the season and those are the only players you'll have all year. There are no waivers, no trades, and no free agency.

This fantasy format has thousands of entries and managers are put into leagues of 12 teams. Each week, your roster's best scores at each position are counted towards your final total. After 18 regular season weeks, the three highest scoring rosters from each individual 12-team league are re-inserted into new 10-team leagues for the first round of fantasy playoffs. After two weeks of playoffs, the two highest-scoring rosters from each of the new 10-team leagues moves to the next round, and so on until the winner is determined.

The positions are centre (C), winger (W), defence (D), flex (C/W/D), and goalie. You draft 18 players total and the top two centres, top three wingers, top defenceman, next-highest scoring skater (flex), and top goalie from each week count towards your final score.

The Best Puck Classic is a points format that awards points as follows:

• Goals – 6
• Assists – 4
• Power-Play Points – 0.5
• Shots – 1
• Hits – 0.5
• Blocks – 1
• Goalie Win – 6
• Goalie Save – 0.6
• Goalie Goal Against – (-3)

To date, there have been over 60 drafts completed, so things will change once there are hundreds of drafts, but it gives us a nice base to work from. Today's Ramblings will round out the forwards by reviewing winger ADPs.

Kirill Kaprizov and Matt Boldy (Minnesota Wild)

Last season, among 411 forwards with at least 40 games played, there were 13 who managed at least 10 fantasy points (FPTS) per game in this format, and two of those 13 were Kaprizov and Boldy. Unsurprisingly, then, both are being drafted in the back half of the first round or very early in the second round:

The interesting one to me is Boldy. Across his first four seasons, he had never shot higher than 13.3% (and that was in 47 games as a rookie), and the last three seasons saw him average 11.6%. Then, in 2025-26, he shot 16.5%. If his conversion rate was 13% – which would still have been a four-year high – then he scores nine fewer goals and drops from the 9^th highest-scoring forward to 17^th. If he shoots 11.5%, he falls to the 23^rd highest scoring forward. A big reason for the spike is he scored as many empty-net goals last year (5) as he had for his entire career prior, a span of 285 games. Is he really that much better/safer at that ADP than Martin Necas or Kyle Connor?

Mikko Rantanen (Dallas Stars)

Last year, one team I wasn't super excited about drafting because of their ADPs were the top players from the Dallas Stars. For Jason Robertson, that backfired on me as he finished as the fifth-highest scoring forward overall. It did work out for me with Rantanen as his ADP was as a late first/early second-round pick and he finished outside the top-30 forwards by FPTS per game. As a result of last season, Rantanen's ADP has dropped ~10 picks:

This is a prime example of the importance of league settings: Rantanen had an 82-game pace for 99 points but he still was a poor draft value. Without much for hit/block peripherals, and with his shot volume in Dallas dropping about 1.3 shots per game when compared to his last few years in Colorado, he is heavily reliant on elite point production. Rantanen could be a 30-goal, 70-assist forward and completely brick at this ADP because of the lack of peripherals.

Dylan Guenther (Utah Mammoth)

Last season, Rantanen managed 8.77 FPTS per game in this format. Guenther, meanwhile, managed 8.66 FPTS per game but is going a full round later than Rantanen in these drafts:

Over the last three seasons, Guenther is tied for 10^th in the league by goals per 60 minutes and is sixth by shot attempts per 60 minutes. He spiked to 40 goals last year thanks to a career-best 16.5% shooting, but considering he shot 13.5% across his first three seasons, that's not an extreme increase. Unlike Rantanen, there is a very high shot rate supporting Guenther's fantasy value, so even if he doesn't reach 16.5% conversion again, then the volume will keep his goal-scoring from crashing.

The concern for Guenther is ice time. He skated 17:24 per game last season and even with a modest bump, he probably won't get a lot more than 18 minutes. Last year, no forward played at least 60 games, skated under 18 minutes per outing, and was a point-per-game player. Guenther getting to 18:30-19 minutes a game would go a long way to being a top-25 fantasy option. This ADP is fine; I'm just not enamoured with it. 

Sam Reinhart (Florida Panthers)

Last season, at least up until the preseason injury to Aleksander Barkov, Reinhart is a mid-to-late second-round pick in this format. After a down year where the Panthers suffered substantial injuries to several key players, Reinhart's ADP has plummeted to the middle of the fourth round:

Back in 2024-25, Reinhart finished as the 15^th forward by FPTS per game. Even in a down 2025-26 with all those injuries, he finished inside the top-40 forwards. If he splits the difference between the last two years, on a per game basis, he's a top-25 forward. Despite the additions the Panthers have made, Reinhart will be on the top line with Barkov, the top power-play unit, the penalty kill, and play in empty net situations. I have generally thought that Reinhart has been overvalued the last couple of years, but the pendulum has swung the other way and if his ADP stays anywhere outside the top-30 picks, I have interest.

Gavin McKenna (Toronto Maple Leafs)

We went through this two years ago with Matvei Michkov, last year with Ivan Demidov, and now it's McKenna's turn as his ADP sits between two potential (even likely) point-per-game wingers:

To pay off this ADP, McKenna would need to be a top-50 forward by FPTS per game. Assuming he doesn't have huge hit and block totals (very few rookies do, especially those heavy on point production), then he would need something like 0.36 goals, 0.49 assists, and 3.0 shots per game. Since 2005, the only teenage rookies to play at least 60 games and reach those marks are Sidney Crosby in 2005-06 and Macklin Celebrini in 2024-25 (per StatHead). For McKenna to live up to this ADP, he needs to do something that has happened twice in 20 years. To profit meaningfully from that ADP, he needs something like a 35-goal, 45-assist season. This seems a bit ridiculous.

Zach Hyman (Edmonton Oilers)

Last year, Hyman finished 44^th in FPTS per game among forwards using Underdog's scoring system. The issue is he played just 58 games, so his overall impact was outside the top-100 forwards, and that gives us this ADP:

To pay off an ADP in the middle of the eighth round, Hyman needs to be roughly a top-60 forward. For argument's sake, let's say he plays 75 games in 2026-27. Using his per-game paces over the last two seasons, a 75-game campaign would give him 33 goals, 22 assists, 211 shots, 16 power-play points, 66 hits, and 24 blocks. By FPTS per game, that is a top-40 forward, and by total FPTS, that is a top-35 forward. He is now 34 years old, so age-related decline is a concern. However, if he can just stay healthy, it seems like he can be a good source of value.

Jimmy Snuggerud (St. Louis Blues)

By FPTS per game last season, Snuggerud was roughly a top-90 forward in this points system. Add in defencemen and goalies, and he was around a top-140 player overall. Here is where his ADP sits currently:

This is where the format comes into play. Each week counts at least three wingers but just one defenceman (maybe two if one ends up in the flex) and just one goalie. In other words, a third winger on the roster will be much more important than the third defenceman. For Snuggerud to be worth this ADP, he probably needs something like 25 goals, 45 assists, and 220 shots. Last season, his 82-game paces were 25 goals, 35 assists, and 198 shots. He also did that with just nine power-play points. It seems very plausible to me that in his second year, with a full season next to Robert Thomas, Snuggerud can be that kind of player. The trade of Jordan Kyrou also eliminates some competition for winger ice time. As long as his ADP stays outside the top-100 picks, Snuggerud is someone I have interest in.

Josh Doan (Buffalo Sabres)

After a breakout 2025-26 season, and the trade of Alex Tuch, Doan's ADP isn't very high:

In fairness, even on a per-game basis, this is an ADP far exceeding what he did last year. All the same, Doan is one of the few players in the league that has genuine 30/30 upside with 200 shots and 100 hits. He has yet to reach any of those marks, but after a 25/27 season with 170 shots and 78 hits, they are all within range. To be worth his ADP, he likely needs something close to a 30/30 season.

The question for me is the power play. Last year, Doan was a frequent member of the top PP unit for most of the year: until the Trade Deadline, Doan skated 59.6% of the PPTOI, third among Sabres forwards (per Frozen Tools), but that fell to 43.1% after the Trade Deadline, and was even lower in the playoffs. With Tage Thompson, Jason Zucker, Josh Norris, and Jack Quinn as the regular PP members, plus the surge from Zach Benson, I'm not convinced Doan is a staple of the top PP unit for over half the season. That change would be the difference between taking a flier on him in the 14^th or 15^th round or looking elsewhere.