Capped: Analyzing the Extension for Capitals Forwards Ryan Leonard and Justin Sourdif
Andrew Santillo
2026-09-24
Hello all and welcome back in for what I'm sure has been a very busy week for you and your league! I had my points pool draft on Tuesday (Edmonton, Washington, Utah, Toronto, Chicago), and my live ESPN draft is tomorrow. You guys, we made it!
This is the sixth year we've had a points pool, and I've never had the Capitals as one of my clubs, and I'm bullish on them this season. They're big up front and will be awesome off the rush, and the underlying numbers last season for Logan Thompson were fantastic last season. As it turns out as well, we have two Capitals who have recently signed that we need to examine as we move one week closer to the start of the regular season.
Ryan Leonard (21, LW/RW) signs an 8-year contract with Washington at a $10.5M AAV ($84M total)
UFA in 2035 (Age 30)
Ryan Leonard will make more next season than Nikita Kucherov makes this year. The NHL, man.
I've thought a lot about the wave of young players signing massive contracts this offseason and how many of them will ultimately provide value relative to those cap hits. Leonard, however, is not one I'm worried about. Even with only 84 NHL games under his belt, there's already plenty to like about his fantasy outlook.
Depending on your league settings, there's a chance Leonard remains eligible for a minors slot, though that would likely require either generous prospect eligibility rules, additional minors spots, or a combination of both. While this extension doesn't kick in until next season, there's little reason to consider moving on from a 21-year-old who has already proven 20-goal potential at the NHL level.
There are some underlying metrics that aren't perfect. His goals-for percentages and certain possession metrics, like Corsi, are on the lower side but I still I keep coming back to the fact that he's essentially a rookie. Leonard has already shown that he can be a reliable top-six winger and a legitimate power-play threat, recording 14 power-play points last season.
This is another player I wish I had on my roster and there's a real chance he takes a meaningful step forward this season. Using last year's 20 goals in 75 games as a baseline, a jump into the 23-24 goal range seems reasonable. He has the upside to become a long-term top-line winger in Washington and is exactly the kind of young talent worth holding onto, regardless of salary considerations on your roster.
Justin Sourdif (24, C) signs an 8-year contract with Washington at a $6.35M AAV ($50.8M total)
UFA in 2035 (Age 33)
I think this one caught a lot of people by surprise. Justin Sourdif and the Capitals agreed to what will be the final eight-year contract signed under the current CBA. My initial reaction was skepticism, but the more I've thought about it, the more the term and cap hit have grown on me.
As one member of my league pointed out, “$6 million is the new $3 million,” and honestly, he's right. From a fantasy perspective, this contract may be more difficult to justify right now because Sourdif is primarily playing bottom-six minutes. Where I see the value is in the longer-term outlook.
For this season, it's difficult to envision Sourdif regularly centering a top-six line if Washington's depth chart remains healthy. That limits his immediate fantasy ceiling, which is disappointing. However, I do believe there's future value here. Last season, Sourdif produced 35 points while playing in a bottom-six role. Interestingly, that matched the even-strength point total of his new teammate, Jordan Kyrou.
Defense doesn't carry much weight in most fantasy formats, but Sourdif's defensive game jumped off the page for me. The peripherals support that impression, as he finished last season with 98 hits and 40 blocked shots.
As salary-cap leagues continue to evolve, Sourdif strikes me as the type of player I'd look to make room for down the road. To create that flexibility, I'd be more willing to move a defenseman in the $4-6 million range than pass on a versatile forward like Sourdif. He may never become a 50-point, top-line center, but I don't think a 40-point season as a second-line center is unrealistic at all.
For continued fantasy news and notes, follow me on Twitter @ndySanz.