Once again, I'm carrying on a longstanding DobberHockey tradition of making Fearless Forecasts for the upcoming season. What makes these forecasts "fearless" is they're plausible, yet more bold than normal predictions. As such, I expect to get more of these wrong than right, but all are rooted in logic and/or statistics, such that – right or wrong – by reading them you'll gain insight to help you over the course of the season. There are 10 Forecasts for 2026-27, as after a few years where I included more than 10 I realized in hindsight I'd ended up reaching on several. So going forward I'm still making what I consider Fearless Forecasts but probably sticking to just ten in total.

What's also great about the Forecasts is I give all of you a chance to vote on which will be correct, or to indicate – as I must admit has happened in the past – that none will be right. The voting link is at the end of the column. With all that out of the way, onto what you came to see – the actual Forecasts!

1) Matthew Schaefer will score fewer points than he did in 2025-26

After a fantastic rookie season that saw Schaefer truly thrive at age 18 despite playing for the far-from-offensively-potent New York Islanders, most feel he'll only get better, including improvement this season. But to me, it seems more likely he takes a step backward, production-wise, for 2026-27.

It is true that the only other defenseman in NHL history to score more than 45 points as an 18-year-old*, Phil Housley, improved from 66 points in 77 games as a rookie to 77 in 75 games the next season. But Housley's team scored 318 goals in his rookie season (versus 229 for the Isles last season) and a nearly identical 315 his second year*. Also, Housley had 34 PPPts as a rookie, and 38 as a sophomore, plus saw his SH% rise from 10.4% to 13.2% despite taking 52 more shots. Had Housley shot at an identical rate in his second season as he did as when he was a rookie, he would've tallied seven fewer goals, and, if none were repackaged as assists, finished with only 70 points in those 75 games.

Like Housley, Schaefer shot 10.4% as a rookie. But although Schaefer had 23 goals, he hit just one crossbar and no posts**. In stark contrast, the other five d-men who had 20+ goals last season hit an average of ten combined crossbars and posts^**; so, him hitting just one stands out, and not in a good way. Also, his 9.5% team SH% at 5×5 was quite good, but perhaps too good, as among all Isle forwards and d-men, just Anthony Duclair had a higher rate at 9.6%. And the most notable offseason improvement to their offense was to add Mattias Macelli, who could not even thrive while with the much higher-octane Leafs. Schaefer also had a 48.0% IPP overall, and a 62.1% IPP on the PP. So, either those drop down to more normal levels for a d-man, or, if they stay high, chances are not as many goals will be scored, which would be bad enough as it is, but even worse if his 9.5% team SH% drops as well.

Although his future will remain bright pretty much no matter how Schaefer performs in 2026-27, it could be there is a one season studder-step, resulting in him doing worse before he rounds more into form and/or his team improves. Thus, if you're in a one-year league, prepare for a potential letdown.

2) If he plays 70+ games, Jack Hughes will tally 50+ goals and 50+ assists

Much has been made of Hughes missing 20 or 21 games in each of the past three seasons. But despite this, thus far he has remained elite when he plays. Also, it seems like a switch was flipped for him after the 2026 Olympics, as in Q4 of last season Hughes produced 36 points in just 20 games, with 15 of those points being goals. And this was for a New Jersey Devils team which finished 6^th-worst in goals. In short, Hughes – multiple injuries notwithstanding – remains a truly special player.

New Jersey also realizes Hughes is their centerpiece and does all it can to put him – and, thus, them – in a position to thrive. Case in point was his 72.5% OZ%, up from 70.2% in 2025-26 and 66.1% in 2023-24. Hughes also had an overall IPP of 81.1% and an IPP on the PP of 76.7%, which are on the level of the elitest of the elite, like Nikita Kucherov, Connor McDavid, and Leon Draisaitl, and all this despite the Devils shooting 8.5% at 5×5 with him on the ice. In sum, the shortcomings of those with whom he skated did not prevent Hughes from being able to excel, and his team SH% has nowhere to go but up, as it had been 9.7%-10.1% in three of the four seasons before 2025-26 despite no better talent in his midst than there was last season. Plus, Hughes did this with a 36.0% secondary assist rate, which is low for a center but typical for him, as he's been within the 30-40% range his entire career, meaning he should be able to replicate his scoring rate from the fourth quarter of last season for all of 2026-27.

In short, Hughes is ultra elite, and injuries haven't taken a collective toll. If he's able to play 70 games, he should become a member of the 50/50 club for the first, but almost assuredly not the last, time.

3) Matt Boldy will not be a point-per-game player

Although Boldy's prior high in production was a 75-point rate, most felt it was merely a matter of time before he far eclipsed that, which he did in 2025-26 with a 92-point rate. But while some see that as a steppingstone to better production for the Minnesota Wild forward, there are warning signs suggesting not only that he won't improve, but he'll falter enough to not be a PPG player in 2026-27.

For one, Boldy entered 2025-26 with a career SH% of 11.8%, meaning had he shot at that rate, instead of 16.5%, his 2025-26 goal total would've dropped to 30, translating to 12 fewer points if none of those lost goals were repackaged as assists, and already placing him below the point per game mark. It is true that Boldy had more SOG from 0-15 feet in 2025-26 versus 2024-25, such that perhaps him somewhat upping his SH% from his career rate was reasonable, but the difference in his shooting distances from 2024-25 to 2025-26 was not so stark as to justify as large a jump in SH%. Also, Boldy had four SHPs in 2025-26, after never having tallied a single SHP in his career. Yes, it was the first time he was saddled with ample SH duty, however, even if that justified him getting a SHP or two, it also meant although he gained 39 seconds of PP time per game in 2025-26 versus 2024-25, he added a lot more SH, going from 0:23 per game in 2024-25 to 1:43 per game in 2025-26. So even if his SHPs were somewhat legitimate, him seeing his scoring rate rise as much as it did despite his non-SH TOI falling over a minute from 19:56 per game in 2024-25 to 18:51 is very suspect and further suggests a scoring drop for 2026-27.

Boldy also saw a major rise in team SH% at 5×5, landing at 10.7% for 2025-26. That is not so high as to be objectively unsustainable; but in his three prior full seasons, Boldy had rates of 7.3%, 9.9%, and 8.1%, which suggest a jump all the way to 10.7% is not something he's likely to replicate, costing him points.

Additionally, Boldy's already low – for a scorer – offensive zone starting percentage of 48.0% in 2024-25 dropped a bit more to 47.7%, which is not surprising given his added SH duty. But if we look at the roughly 140 forwards who had an OZ% as low or lower than his 47.7% in 2025-26, only five had a scoring rate above 65 points (Pavel Zacha, Dylan Larkin, Roope Hintz, Lucas Raymond, Ryan O'Reilly), and no one in that quintet was a point per gamer. Yet Boldy somehow finished with a 92-point rate. In fact, to find the player who had the next lowest OZ% and at least as high – or higher – scoring pace as Boldy, there was Jason Robertson at 48.0%, although he had been a 90+ point scorer previously, and then after that was Nick Suzuki at 52.4%, with him having already reached 89 points in a prior season. In short, Boldy's scoring pace was far too high in view of his OZ% and past scoring rates.

So, although Boldy is a fine player, his deployment not only wasn't conductive to him having a scoring pace as high as he did, but to being a point per gamer at all. And when all is said and done for 2026-27, I see him coming back to earth enough to finish with fewer points than games played.

4) If Clayton Keller plays 75 games, he'll score 100+ points

After hitting the 90-point mark in 2024-25, many felt Keller would improve quite a bit this past season since the Utah Mammoth finally had more talent with whom he could share the ice. But instead, Keller's scoring dipped slightly. Hidden in that though is the fact Keller was scorching in the second half, plus his other metrics were unsustainably low overall.

After 30 and 37 PPPts in his two most recent seasons, Keller's man advantage scoring dropped to 27 PPPts in 2025-26. As to why that occurred, his PP IPP, which was 81.4% when he had 37 PPPts, and 74.0% when he had 30, fell to 69.4%, which makes sense given the team's added talent. But Utah as a team tallied only 46 PPGs last season, after having 53 in 2024-25 and 75 in 2023-24. So even though Keller was of course not on the ice for all his team's PPGs, he had a point in 27 of them, for a 58.7% rate, which is higher than his rate for 2024-25 (30 in 53, i.e., 56.6%) and not much below his rate for 2023-24 (37 in 57, or 64.9%). So, either his PP IPP rebounds, his team scores more PPGs, or both, leading to scoring gains for him in 2026-27.

Beyond just PPPts in general, Keller saw a significant decline in PPGs, having had 10 in 2024-25 and nine in 2023-24, but only four last season. His PP SOG total did drop, but barely, as he had 47 in 2025-26 and 42 last year. So, for him to have tallied seven fewer PPGs despite only five fewer PP SOG suggests unsustainable bad luck. Perhaps he was somewhat lucky in getting that may PPGs goals last season, as in 2023-24 he had nine on 58 PP SOG; however, even if his 2023-24 PP SH% of 15.5% is more realistic, it was more than double the 7.1% PP SH% he had last season, further underscoring that he unsustainably underperformed when it came to the PP in 2025-26.

It wasn't just his PP SH% that was below normal though, as Keller's SOG held steady at 2.7 per game, yet his SH% dropped to 11.6%, well below the 15.1% it was over the prior four seasons since he broke out. Had he shot at that rate in 2025-26, he'd have tallied eight more goals, upping his scoring rate to 96, or just below 100. In short, he had fewer goals by a good amount, overall and on the PP, than he should've, and thus ought to improve in those areas for 2026-27.

When looking at Keller's other metrics, it's not surprising to see his overall IPP, which had been above 80% in each of the prior two seasons, fell to 70.4%, as that too likely is the effect of him finally having more talent around him. His team SH% at 5×5 was 12.0% though, which rivals the rate of the NHL's truly elite. Although it was well higher than the 9.2%, 9.5%, and 10.6% he had in his three prior seasons, it is consistent with Utah now being a better team overall and therefore could be at or close to Keller's new normal. And as far as secondary assists, his 2025-26 rate was 32.3%, meaning there is plenty of room for him to get more points in the normal course.

In summary, Keller's 2025-26 season saw him underperform. Yet he was scorching during the second half, scoring at a 106-point full season pace, which is far more likely to be reflective of how he'll fare in 2026-27 than his first half rate, plus he will be due to recapture PPPts/PPGs/Goals he should've had last season, and, with those, points. The net effect will be that Keller rewards his fantasy owners with a 100+ point season if he plays at least 75 games.

5) Adam Fox will score at a 90+ point rate

With Artemi Panarin and Vincent Trocheck gone, most expect the New York Rangers to struggle offensively even with the addition of Pavel Dorofeyev. And it might indeed be the case they score fewer goals as a team compared to 2025-26; yet even if so, signs point to Fox being able to benefit, leading him to not only post his second ever point per game season, but rising all the way to a 90-point pace.

The departed forwards were key members of the Ranger power play. Dorofeyev though has shown he is a great PP producer, but mainly in the form of PPGs, as 33 of the 47 PPPts he tallied over the past two seasons were goals, meaning only 14 PP assists. The Rangers still need a PP playmaker, with that role falling on Mika Zibanejad and J.T. Miller, both proven PP producers, but also Fox, who'll be QBing PP1. And Fox already showed he's up to the task, as in Q4 Fox posted 24 points in 21 games, with 15 of those points coming on the PP. Yes, Trocheck was still there, but in Q4 Trocheck had 14 total points, with only five on the PP. So, it stands to reason Fox will again thrive on the PP much like he did in Q4 of 2025-26.

Fox also showed he could pick up the scoring slack for New York in the form of 17 multi-point games out of 55 games played. That translates to 30% of his games seeing him score 2+ points, a rate bested by only Cale Makar, who can sleepwalk his way to 90 points.

Moreover, Fox did better despite shooting less. That is not in keeping with what's normally expected from 90+ point defensemen; but we've seen from Lane Hutson that selective shooting need not stand in the way of elite rearguard scoring in today's NHL. And it also should work well on the Rangers, with Ziba, Dorofeyev, Alexis Lafreniere, and J.T. Miller being high enough volume shooters that Fox can rack up points without firing lots of pucks on net himself. Also, this makes Fox's secondary assist rate of 61.4% last season, a career high, not worrisome, especially since his OZ% was a career low, plus his team SH% at 5×5 was 9.8%, which was very reasonable.

So, if you're trepidatious about Fox due to concerns about New York as a team, keep in mind that the Rags getting 'worse' and losing two formerly key PP contributors, should lead to Fox being relied upon even more for blueline offense. And given what we saw from him in Q4, that ought to translate to a scoring pace of 90+ points.

6) Cole Caufield will not be a point per game player

Maybe you're thinking this is not a fearless forecast, with him surpassing the point per game mark for the first time last season, and only an 89-point pace? Keep in mind he's seen his scoring rate increase every single season, and it went from 70 in 2024-25 to 89 in 2025-26, so for me to not only predict it won't rise further, but in fact fall, is bold. On top of that, he's set to hit his "small stature" 400-game breakout threshold during this season, making it all the more likely for him to do even better.

But Caufield's 2025-26 metrics are full of red flags. Previously, Caufield's scoring rate rose at a small but steady rate, which made sense since he wasn't gaining TOI overall or on the PP. The issue is last season there still were no TOI increases, yet Caufield's production somehow spiked. Also, his SH% was 19.6% when it had been 12.7% going into 2025-26, meaning had he shot at his normal rate he'd have scored 18 fewer goals, such that if there were no added assists his scoring rate would've been 71, or right where it was in 2024-25.

Plus, in looking at the 77 other instances of a forward scoring 45+ goals – not even 51 like Caufield had in 2025-26 – dating back to 2000-01**, only four had fewer than Caufield's 11 PPGs and a mere one had a lower overall TOI per game. Beyond those factors, just four others of the 77 didn't average at least 30 seconds more of TOI than Caufield had in 2025-26 in their specific 45+ goal season**.

Focusing more on the PP, since becoming an NHL regular in 2021-22 and through 2024-25, Caufield had cumulatively taken the ice for the 17th most PP TOI of any NHL forward, yet he stood only tied for 47th in PPPts**. Last season though, his PPTOI put him 20th among forwards, and he finished tied for 21st in PPPts. I suppose as he nears his breakout threshold he could be connecting the dots on the PP; but there is a real risk he drops back to prior levels given the emergences of Juraj Slafkovsky and Ivan Demidov to syphon away PPPts, plus Chris Krieder looming as a threat to be installed on PP1.

The Montreal Canadiens figure to be a high scoring team, so a rising tide might raise Caufield's boat enough to push him to a point per game, but in the end, I think enough factors will keep him lower.

7) Brandt Clarke will score at a 60+ point pace

On the surface, Clarke's improvement has been incremental, rising from a 31-point pace to 35, and then last season to 40, meaning he's still yet to finish a season scoring even point per every other game. But lurking beneath his 2025-26 numbers are signs he's ready to pop in 2026-27.

For one, although Clarke tallied only 40 points for the season, he had nine games with two points and one with three, meaning a total of 10 multipoint games, representing more than half his total points. So even though Clarke's 40 points tied him for just 30th in overall defenseman scoring, his 10 multipoint games ranked him tied for 22nd, with all but one of those d-men who had more multipoint games tallying 50+ points. And whereas this also meant Clarke had many scoreless games, translating to him getting a point in only 35.7% of his games, the lowest mark for any rearguard with more multipoint games was 42.5%, with all but three being 50% or higher, so he should improve there in the normal course. He was also getting far more TOI in the second half, such that we should expect him to be at or above 21:00 per game in 2026-27, which will only help matters.

Perhaps the most glaring stat for Clarke is his secondary assist rate, which was a miniscule 25%, meaning just eight of his 32 assists were secondary. To put that in perspective, Clarke's 32 assists tied him for 28th among all defensemen, and of those above him the next lowest secondary assist rate was 39.6%, with more being 50% or higher than not. So, he should've had plenty more assists last season, and assuredly will in 2026-27.

Also, 2025-26 was the first time Clarke took the ice for over 50% of his team's man advantage minutes, but just barely, as he finished at 50.3% for the season. But in view of Drew Doughty having somehow tallied only a single PPPt in 72 games last season, it stands to reason that Clarke, with his extension kicking in and his far superior – at this stage – offensive skills, will be the PP1 QB for the Los Angeles Kings 2026-27. Beyond that, the Kings added Artemi Panarin, who should still be a positive, especially its PP1, plus Kevin Fiala eventually will be healthy again, and Mats Zuccarello is also on board, who, despite his age, continues to thrive on the PP, ranking 22nd among forwards in cumulative PPPts dating back to 2021-22 despite receiving the 33rd most PPTOI**. So, L.A.'s PP figures to be much improved, with Clarke, its presumed QB, a major beneficiary.

In short, there are key barometers suggesting Clarke will see major scoring gains. And collectively, they indicate his improvement should be enough to see him produce at a 60+ point rate for 2026-27.

8) Karel Vejmelka will not win over 50% of the games he starts

In 2025-26, Vejmelka started 63 games and won 38, well exceeding a 50% win rate. But he shouldn't top the 50% mark for 2026-27 due to several factors. For one, Utah scored 3.59 goals per game when he started**. That would've translated to third-best in the NHL, and is far above their overall rate, which was 3.27 goals per game, tying them for 13th. So, they scored considerably more with him in net, which will be difficult to replicate. There's also the fact that 11 goalies last season started 41+ games and had a lower SV% than Vejmelka's .897, with only one of the 11, Linus Ullmark, winning more than 50% of his starts, and barely, with 25 wins in 49 games, thanks in large part to winning 11 of his last 16 starts.

But can't Velmelka's SV% improve? Not likely, as even though it was .902 in games he started after one day of rest, it was .880 for both games started after two days rest and three days rest, and .916 for four or more days rest**. And although well more than half his starts were after one day of rest, a combined 19 were after two or three, and just six came with four or more days rest**. If his percentage of starts shrinks, which is unlikely, he might actually fare better. As it stands though, his SV% should not improve or could even go down, which won't help add back wins he figures to not get in the normal course.

No question Vejmelka is a workhorse capable of starting 60+ games in a season. Yet not only should we count on him winning a lower percentage of games in 2026-27 versus 2025-26, but the drop figures to be large enough for him to end the season with a winning percentage no better than 50%.

9) Charlie McAvoy will have a scoring rate under 50 points

Last season McAvoy's 72-point scoring rate was a career high, and he finished with 40 points in his last 39 contests. So why do I see him faring so much worse for 2026-27? Because what he did, especially in the second half, is entirely unsustainable, plus his start of season suspension and inevitable injury issues.

McAvoy's 22 points in 19 Q3 games alone was one fewer than he had in 50 games for 2024-25, which is a reminder McAvoy is a Certified Band-Aid Boy, missing an average of 17 games in the past four seasons, an issue likely to recur plus he's already going to miss six games to start the season due to suspension. In fairness, he likely underperformed in 2024-25, but he also never produced like he did last season and is unlikely to again. Why not? For starters, he had 23 PPPts in 2025-26, which is not uncharted territory given he had 21 in 2021-22, but he played nine more games that season. On top of that, he averaged 2.1 SOG per game, versus 1.6 last season, which tied his lowest SOG rate among the previous five seasons. Also, he tied for 11th in PPPts among d-men last season despite ranking 19th in rearguard PP TOI. This from a player who, over the prior four seasons, including when he posted 21 PPPts, cumulatively ranked 17th in PP TOI among d-men yet 27th in PPPts**. So, he flipped his usual script, which is not likely to be repeated.

Beyond that, his 50.6% offensive zone starting percentage was the second lowest of his career, and well below his 55.9% to 60.8% range from the prior four seasons. Yet despite that his 5×5 team SH% was 12.4%, having averaged 9.1% over the prior four seasons with higher OZ start percentages; for sure unsustainable. On top of those factors, his overall and PP IPP were higher than all but one of the prior four seasons. Yes, he did have a 40.0% secondary assist rate, a good bit below his roughly 55% normal rate, but even if he was to get more assists in the normal course, it would not be near enough to offset points he stands to lose if his OZ% stays that low and his 5×5 team SH% and IPPs come back to earth.

Not surprisingly given his OZ%, despite McAvoy adding over a minute of TOI per game from 2024-25 to 2025-26, he somehow saw less PP TOI per game and more than a minute of added SH duty. So, the TOI he gained should not have resulted in so many more points given there was no added non-SH TOI. Plus, he had a 9.9% personal SH%. That's far less glaring than his 5×5 team SH%, but going into last season his career rate was 7.0%, meaning he tallied three or four more goals than he should've.

There is little doubt that McAvoy will remain 'The Guy' among Boston Bruins defensemen and run its PP1. But we can see he vastly overachieved in 2025-26, plus will miss six games at the start of the season and is all but assured to get hurt at some point. All things considered, his scoring is likely to nosedive, falling below a 50-point rate.

10) If he plays 60+ games, Connor Bedard will be the top scorer of his draft class

Of course, this wouldn't be a fearless forecast if Bedard was set to play a full season, but most likely he'll take the ice for, at most, 60-65 contests. And to remind everyone who else was in his draft class, it's Leo Carlsson, Will Smith, Adam Fantilli, Matvei Michkov, Zach Benson, and Ryan Leonard among the notables.

Why do I think Bedard will still outpoint each of them? Before getting hurt last season, he stood at 42 points in his first 31 games, translating to a 111-point scoring pace, nearly equal to Macklin Celebrini's 115. And let's not forget that was without Anton Frondell, Roman Kantserov, Patrick Kane, Nick Lardis, and Bowen Byram, who all represent major upgrades versus those with whom he skated in 2025-26. Bedard no longer will have to be the everything for the Chicago Blackhawks, and his better supporting cast will boost scoring, with Bedard, and his IPPs of 82.4% overall and 77.8% on the PP, plus incredibly low 26.7% secondary assist rate, being the major beneficiary. Keep in mind also that those amazing metrics reflect the games after Bedard returned from injury when he was not nearly as effective.

Bedard did all this with just 21 power-play points in 69 games. Despite missing 13 games and skating for under 75% of his team's PP time when he played, Bedard had a PPPt in more than half Chicago's 40 total PPGs*. Beyond that, in games he missed, the team had eight PPGs, meaning in his 69 games they scored 32 PPGs, with him getting a point on 21, for a 65% rate*. Compare that to San Jose, who had 54 PPGs overall, with Macklin Celebrini having a point on 31, for a lower rate of 57%^*.

Basically, Bedard was Celebrini's near-equal, and even better in some areas. So, if this forecast was for Celebrini to outscore each of these players in only 60-65 games, would it seem plausible? If so, then it should be for Bedard as well given how hot he was before getting hurt and the Hawks having far more talent with whom he'll be able to take the ice.

* = Source: hockey-reference.com; ** = Source: nhl.com; All other stats/data/metrics from Frozen Tools.

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And with that, you have my 10 Fearless Forecasts for 2026-27. And as promised, you get to have your say on them, as you can click here vote on which ones will come true, or, if you think I'm in left field for all 10 of them, to vote instead for the "None of the Above" choice. Best of luck to everyone's fantasy teams this season!

Questions for Mailbag

My next monthly mailbag has room for plenty more questions. To get your questions to me, you can either send (1) a private message to “rizzeedizzee” via the DobberHockey Forums, or (2) an email to [email protected] with “Roos Mailbag” as the subject line.