Some good news for both fantasy managers and Dallas Stars fans as the team sent Trey Taylor back to the AHL, per Owen Newkirk. It clears the way for Miro Heiskanen, who has missed the last 2.5 games, to return on Thursday when the Stars host the Winnipeg Jets.

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Ben Kuzma reports that Vancouver Canucks forward Filip Chytil was a participant at morning skate on Monday. He didn't play in Vancouver's game on Monday night, but it's a good sign that he may be nearing a return to the lineup.

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Speaking of returns, San Jose Sharks forward Alex Wennberg returned to the lineup on Monday night after missing nearly three weeks with an injury. He was back in his usual second-line, top power play role. Michael Misa and Tyler Toffoli were both moved to the second PP unit as Jacob Trouba (yes, really) assumed top PP QB duties for the team.

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Kevin Fiala was skating on Los Angeles' second line in practice on Monday:

Fiala has yet to play this year after that gruesome injury in the Olympics back in February.

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A couple of weeks ago, I had a buy-low write-up on Sidney Crosby, Adam Fantilli, and Tyson Foerster. Since then, Crosby has six points in six games, Foerster has three points and 14 hits in six games, but Fantilli has been a dud. I still think Fantilli makes a good buy-low, and the price has only gotten cheaper since.

Today, let's run that same exercise again, looking at changes among forward stats to start this season compared to the forward's 2-year average. We are looking at two stats in particular:

1. Individual Points Percentage (IPP) – How often a player registers a point when their team scores a goal with them on the ice. So, if Tage Thompson is on the ice for 20 goals, and has a point on 10 of those goals, his IPP is 50%.
2. Unblocked Shots Per Shot on Goal (iFF Per Shot) – How many unblocked shot attempts it takes for a player to register a shot on goal.

If we can find players who are getting fewer points than they should, and players whose shot volume should increase, we can find our buy-low options.

The following graphs are my own using data from Natural Stat Trick and Frozen Tools. The red and blue dotted lines are the average change in each stat for the forwards in our sample. The size of the team logo refers to the difference in their secondary assist rate compared to the last two years, so the smaller the logo, the lower their secondary assist rate this season.

Travis Konecny (Philadelphia Flyers)

Konecny has played just nine games, and the Flyers have struggled to create offence all season. While his point production isn't very far off what we may expect, the key here is his unblocked shot attempt rate this season compared to the last two years:

Through his nine games, Konecny has just 14 shots on goal. He has required 2.14 unblocked shot attempts for every shot on goal, but his two-year average is 1.55. In other words, Konecny's 30 unblocked shot attempts should have led to 19-20 shots on goal by now, rather than 14. His rest-of-season shot pace right now is around 100 shots on goal, but once he starts landing more shots on target, the realistic outcome is around 140 shots on goal. That is a massive difference, speaks to his goal-scoring upside, and makes him someone to target as a buy-low option.

Dylan Guenther (Utah Mammoth)

After starting the season with three goals and five points in two games, Guenther has just three goals and seven points in his last 16 games. He has hit a very cold streak lately, but that is where the buy opportunity comes into play. Guenther has managed a point on just 41.4% of goals scored with him on the ice compared to a two-year average of 68.9%:

There are also some shots on goal missing as he has 46 shots in 18 games and that number should be closer to 50. With rates closer to his recent career norms, Guenther has 19-20 points in 18 games with 50 shots on target. If he was pacing for a 90-point, 230-shot season as he very well could be, then Guenther's fantasy managers are laughing at trade offers.

The bonus here is that starting today, Utah's remaining opponents have combined for a .544 points percentage, which gives the Mammoth the 7^th easiest schedule based on results so far. If Guenther can be acquired with a price of a top-100 player rather than a top-50 player, now is the time to make that deal.

Alex Ovechkin (Washington Capitals)

As with Sidney Crosby, it seems as if we're all waiting for the bottom to fall out of the 41-year-old Ovechkin's production. He may not be the player he was even just two years ago, but there are clear indicators of improvement here:

Ovechkin has a point on just 26.7% of goals scored with him on the ice against a two-year average of 66.5%. He has also required 1.89 unblocked shot attempts for every shot on goal compared to a two-year average of 1.55. Rather than four points and 26 shots, he should be closer to 10 points and 32 shots. With 15 games played, that is still a far cry from even late-career Ovechkin, let alone his prime, but it shows how much production has been left on the table.

The big issue is ice time. He is under 14 minutes a game as the Caps have a deep forward group and, again, he's not the player he was. However, from here on out, even with his reduced ice time, Ovechkin can still post 20 goals, 20 assists, and 150 shots. And if he does see a drastic production uptick, my guess is the ice time improves, too. People who drafted Ovechkin are probably ready to recoup whatever value they can, so a fantasy manager needing a home-run swing in a multi-cat format will want to check to see what the trade cost is.