Hey all, welcome back! We’re far enough into the season now that hot starts are beginning to separate from sustainable production. I wanted to look at a few contracts and player situations that have seen a dip in production since the season began and evaluate whether there’s a path back to stronger fantasy value.

Vasily Podkolzin (25, LW/RW) – Edmonton Oilers ($3M AAV)

I somehow lucked back into Vasily Podkolzin to start the season. After drafting Ryan Nugent-Hopkins late in my ESPN league, his early injury opened an opportunity for Podkolzin to see power-play time and skate alongside Connor McDavid. Since then, many of us, myself included, have been chasing that early production.

Podkolzin recorded nine points before the calendar even reached October 19 and quickly became one of the best early-season fantasy pickups. Along with the scoring, he contributed 27 hits and 20 shots on goal, making him valuable across multiple categories. We all knew the production might be short-lived, but more because of his situation than his talent.

Since the return of Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Zach Hyman, Podkolzin’s offensive opportunities have decreased. He’s now seeing second power-play unit deployment and has averaged 16:48 per game over his last seven full games (he skated 19:07 per game across the first four weeks of the season). Over his last six games, he has just one point, although one of those games was cut short after a game misconduct limited him to only 2:35 of ice time.

The good news is that his $3M cap hit makes him an easy roster fit, and his dual-wing eligibility adds flexibility. In leagues with 14-plus roster spots, there’s still value in holding him as a depth piece. In shallower formats, however, it may be time to explore alternatives with greater offensive upside.

Dylan Holloway (25, C/LW) – St. Louis Blues ($7.75M AAV)

We’ll stay with another player whose production appears closely tied to his spot in the lineup. Dylan Holloway is coming off a new $7.75M AAV extension with the Blues and remains an intriguing fantasy asset.

Last season, Holloway was an outstanding value at just $2.29M AAV. Early this year, it looked like he might outperform his contract again while playing on the top line and first power-play unit. During one stretch, he produced 10 points in six games.

Recently, though, his usage has fluctuated. There have been stretches where he’s skated on the third line, while at other times he’s remained on the top line at even strength but been bumped to the second power-play unit.

Despite the slowdown, I expect Holloway to bounce back. His shooting percentage currently sits at 6.5%, nearly seven percentage points below last season’s mark. A rebound there alone should help drive production. It also doesn’t hurt that Robert Thomas has started to heat up, recording eight points in his last six games. Even if Holloway slides around the lineup, he shoots enough to maintain fantasy relevance. I still view him as a player capable of reaching the 50- to 55-point range this season.

Adam Fantilli (22, C) – Columbus Blue Jackets ($13.8M AAV)

That $13.8M cap hit is probably a tough pill to swallow right now. Adam Fantilli has cooled off significantly since the middle of October with strong shooting numbers. During that stretch, he’s managed 26 shots on goal and averaged just over three minutes of power-play time per game, but the results haven’t followed. Part of the concern comes down to roster construction, while another part simply requires patience.

Let’s start with the roster. Columbus ranks among the league’s lowest-scoring teams at even strength, and the constant line juggling hasn’t helped. Fantilli has recently seen both reduced power-play usage and time on the second line, limiting his opportunities to produce. I understand the frustration of carrying a $13.8M player who currently projects closer to 35 points than the breakout many expected. However, in dynasty formats, the upside remains very much intact.

His shooting percentage sits at just 8.3%, a number that should rise over time. I also believe Fantilli is talented enough to maintain fantasy value without relying heavily on power-play production. He may not be an automatic nightly start if you’re juggling center-eligible players, but he’s certainly someone worth monitoring closely.

There’s also reason for optimism in the schedule ahead. Columbus has upcoming matchups against Philadelphia, Chicago, and a Toronto club that has had stretches of defensive inconsistency. If Fantilli is going to break out of this slump, the next couple of weeks could provide the opportunity.

For continued fantasy news and notes, follow me on Twitter @ndySanz.