Looking Ahead – Week 10
Dave Poleck
2010-12-10
In my article for Week 5 of the NHL season, I looked at the defensive tendencies at home vs. on the road for the 30 NHL clubs. What kind of analysis would that be if I didn't do a follow up look now that we are in Week 10?
The last two columns in the chart below represent the difference between home and away goals against; so Pittsburgh has 0.42 more goals allowed per game at home than they have allowed on the road. This has been updated as of Thursday night's games.
In the Week 5 analysis, teams were split half and half as to whether they more efficient defensively at home or on the road. This time around, 20 of the League's teams allow more goals on the road than they do at home.
The most intriguing difference for me is the Los Angeles Kings, who have now played 13 games both at home and on the road, but have allowed 1.53 more goals away from the Staples Center. They are 11-3 at home, but only 5-8 on the road.
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HOME |
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ROAD |
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Games |
GA |
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Games |
GA |
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Phi |
17 |
47 |
2.76 |
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13 |
25 |
1.92 |
|
0.84 |
Home |
|
Pit |
16 |
40 |
2.50 |
|
14 |
29 |
2.07 |
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0.42 |
Home |
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NJ |
12 |
37 |
3.08 |
|
15 |
43 |
2.87 |
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0.21 |
Home |
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NYR |
15 |
41 |
2.73 |
|
15 |
39 |
2.60 |
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0.13 |
Home |
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NYI |
11 |
36 |
3.27 |
|
15 |
50 |
3.33 |
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0.06 |
Road |
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Bos |
14 |
26 |
1.86 |
|
13 |
25 |
1.92 |
|
0.06 |
Road |
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Buf |
15 |
39 |
2.60 |
|
14 |
40 |
2.86 |
|
0.26 |
Road |
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Mon |
17 |
34 |
2.00 |
|
11 |
20 |
1.82 |
|
0.18 |
Home |
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Ott |
16 |
42 |
2.63 |
|
14 |
47 |
3.36 |
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0.73 |
Road |
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Tor |
16 |
41 |
2.56 |
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12 |
42 |
3.50 |
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0.94 |
Road |
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Atl |
15 |
33 |
2.20 |
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13 |
45 |
3.46 |
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1.26 |
Road |
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Car |
12 |
30 |
2.50 |
|
14 |
51 |
3.64 |
|
1.14 |
Road |
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Fla |
11 |
29 |
2.64 |
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16 |
40 |
2.50 |
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0.14 |
Home |
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TB |
11 |
33 |
3.00 |
|
17 |
64 |
3.76 |
|
0.76 |
Road |
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Wash |
17 |
45 |
2.65 |
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13 |
35 |
2.69
📢 advertisement:
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0.04 |
Road |
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Chi |
16 |
47 |
2.94 |
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14 |
39 |
2.79 |
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0.15 |
Home |
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CBJ |
15 |
41 |
2.73 |
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12 |
33 |
2.75 |
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0.02 |
Road |
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Det |
15 |
42 |
2.80 |
|
11 |
27 |
2.45 |
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0.35 |
Home |
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Nas |
11 |
22 |
2.00 |
|
16 |
46 |
2.88 |
|
0.88 |
Road |
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StL |
12 |
20 |
1.67 |
|
15 |
51 |
3.40 |
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1.73 |
Road |
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Cal |
13 |
40 |
3.08 |
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16 |
46 |
2.88 |
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0.2 |
Home |
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Col |
12 |
35 |
2.92 |
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15 |
51 |
3.40 |
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0.48 |
Road |
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Edm |
12 |
36 |
3.00 |
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15 |
56 |
3.73 |
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0.73 |
Road |
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Min |
15 |
38 |
2.53 |
|
12 |
38 |
3.17 |
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0.64 |
Road |
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Van |
13 |
31 |
2.38 |
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13 |
35 |
2.69 |
|
0.31 |
Road |
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Ana |
16 |
43 |
2.69 |
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15 |
49 |
3.27 |
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1.54 |
Road |
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Dal |
14 |
33 |
2.36 |
|
13 |
39 |
3.00 |
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0.64 |
Road |
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LAK |
13 |
21 |
1.62 |
|
13 |
41 |
3.15 |
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1.53 |
Road |
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Pho |
13 |
36 |
2.77 |
|
14 |
36 |
2.57 |
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0.2 |
Home |
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SJ |
13 |
38 |
2.92 |
|
15 |
45 |
3.00 |
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0.08 |
Road |
The big thing to point out in the weekly schedules is the Wednesday to Tuesday schedule, where there not one, not two, but THREE five game weeks; the Ducks, Thrashers and Blues. Anaheim has the highest score indicator, but considering all five games are on the road, I have to think that the Thrashers might be the best pick of the five game teams. They play @TB, Carolina, NJ, @Tor and finish off with the Blues.
Staying with Atlanta, they are going to be the busiest team over the next few weeks, playing nine games over the next 14 days and 12 games over the next 21 days. The Wings and Stars are right behind the Thrashers over those time frames, playing eight and 11 games respectively.
| Friday December 10 to Thursday December 16, 2010 | ||||||
| Best Bets | ||||||
| Atlanta 5.43 – five games COL, @NYI, @OTT, @TB, CAR | ||||||
| Carolina 4.34 – four games @DAL, @STL, @FLA, @ATL | ||||||
| Columbus 4.06 – four games NYR, @CAL, @VAN, @EDM | ||||||
| Anaheim 4.05 – four games CAL, MIN, @WAS, @NYI | ||||||
| Colorado 4.00 – four games @ATL, @WAS, CHI, @CHI | ||||||
| Steer Clear | ||||||
| Buffalo 1.78 – two games PIT, BOS | ||||||
| Florida 2.00 – two @NAS, CAR | ||||||
| New Jersey 2.78 – three games @OTT, DET, PHO | ||||||
| Boston 2.80 – three games PHI, @BUF, @MON | ||||||
| Philadelphia 2.81 – three games @BOS, PHI, @MON | ||||||
| Saturday December 11 to Friday December 17, 2010 | ||||||
| Best Bets | ||||||
| Atlanta 4.48 – four games @NYI, @OTT, @TB, CAR | ||||||
| Columbus 4.06 – four games NYR, @CAL, @VAN, @EDM | ||||||
| San Jose 3.98 – four games CHI, DAL, @NAS, @DAL | ||||||
| Nashville 3.97 – four games FLA, NYI, SJ, @NJ | ||||||
| Chicago 3.93 – four games @SJ, @COL, COL, DET | ||||||
| Steer Clear | ||||||
| Tampa Bay 1.99 – two games @VAN, ATL | ||||||
| Calgary 2.04 – two games CBJ, TOR | ||||||
| New Jersey 2.56 – three games DET, PHO, NAS | ||||||
| Boston 2.80 – three games PHI, @BUF, @MON | ||||||
| Philadelphia 2.81 – three games @BOS, PHI, @MON | ||||||
| Sunday December 12 to Saturday December 18, 2010 | ||||||
| Best Bets | ||||||
| Anaheim 4.34 – four games MIN, @WAS, @NYI, @CAR | ||||||
| Columbus 4.21 – four games @CAL, @VAN, @EDM, DAL | ||||||
| Atlanta 4.14 – four games @OTT, @TB, CAR, NJ | ||||||
| San Jose 4.07 – four games DAL, @NAS, @DAL, @STL | ||||||
| Nashville 3.87 – four games NYI, SJ, @NJ, LA | ||||||
| Steer Clear | ||||||
| Montreal 1.72 – two games PHI, BOS | ||||||
| Florida 1.89 – two games CAR, BUF | ||||||
| Tampa Bay 1.89 – two games ATL, BUF | ||||||
| Pittsburgh 1.90 – two games @PHI, NYR | ||||||
| Detroit 2.69 – three games LA, STL, @CHI | ||||||
| Monday December 13 to Sunday December 19, 2010 | ||||||
| Best Bets | ||||||
| Columbus 4.21 – four games @CAL, @VAN, @EDM, DAL | ||||||
| Atlanta 4.14 – four games @OTT, @TB, CAR, NJ | ||||||
| Ottawa 4.10 – four games ATL, @MIN, @COL, WAS | ||||||
| San Jose 4.07 – four games DAL, @NAS, @DAL, @STL | ||||||
| Dallas 4.02 – four games @SJ, SJ, CBJ, DET | ||||||
| Steer Clear | ||||||
| Florida 1.89 – two games CAR, BUF | ||||||
| Tampa Bay 1.89 – two games ATL, BUF | ||||||
| Pittsburgh 1.90 – two games @PHI, NYR | ||||||
| Minnesota 1.92 – two games OTT, @CAL | ||||||
| Edmonton 2.04 – two games TOR, CBJ | ||||||
| Tuesday December 14 to Monday December 20, 2010 | ||||||
| Best Bets | ||||||
| Carolina 4.45 – four games @FLA, @ATL, ANA, @TB | ||||||
| Anaheim 4.30 – four games @WAS, @NYI, @CAR, @BOS | ||||||
| Atlanta 4.28 – four games @TB, CAR, NJ, @TOR | ||||||
| Toronto 4.22 – four games @EDM, @CAL, @VAN, ATL | ||||||
| Phoenix 4.19 – four games @NJ, @NYR, @NYI, @PIT | ||||||
| Steer Clear | ||||||
| NYI 1.85- two games ANA, PHX | ||||||
| Edmonton 2.04 – two games TOR, CBJ | ||||||
| Chicago 2.72 – three games COL, DET, LA | ||||||
| Pittsburgh 2.73 – three games @PHI, NYR, PHX | ||||||
| Colorado 2.77 – three games @CHI, OTT, MON | ||||||
| Wednesday December 15 to Tuesday December 21, 2010 | ||||||
| Best Bets | ||||||
| Anaheim 5.23 – five games @WAS, @NYI, @CAR, @BOS, @BUF | ||||||
| Atlanta 5.13 – five games @TB, CAR, NJ, @TOR, STL | ||||||
| St. Louis 4.83 – five games @DET, LA, SJ, VAN, @ATL | ||||||
| Carolina 4.45 – four games @FLA, @ATL, ANA, @TB | ||||||
| San Jose 4.19 – four games @NAS, @DAL, @STL, EDM | ||||||
| Steer Clear | ||||||
| Pittsburgh 1.71 – two games NYR, PHX | ||||||
| NYI 1.85- two games ANA, PHX | ||||||
| Edmonton 2.00 – two games CBJ, @SJ | ||||||
| Chicago 2.72 – three games COL, DET, LA | ||||||
| Minnesota 2.77 – three games OTT, @CAL, CAL | ||||||
| Thursday December 16 to Wednesday December 22, 2010 | ||||||
| Best Bets | ||||||
| Anaheim 4.18 – four games @NYI, @CAR, @BOS, @BUF | ||||||
| Calgary 4.14 – four games TOR, MIN, @MIN, @CBJ | ||||||
| Atlanta 3.96 – four games CAR, NJ, @TOR, STL | ||||||
| Los Angeles 3.88 – four games @STL, @NAS, @CHI, COL | ||||||
| Washington 3.95 – four games FLA, COL, @NYR, ANA | ||||||
| Steer Clear | ||||||
| Pittsburgh 1.81 – two games PHX, FLA | ||||||
| NYR 1.84 – two games PHX, @PHI | ||||||
| Philadelphia 1.88 – two games NYR, FLA | ||||||
| Edmonton 2.00 – two games CBJ, @SJ | ||||||
| Chicago 2.62 – three games DET, LA, NAS | ||||||
| Friday December 17 to Thursday December 23, 2010 | ||||||
| Best Bets | ||||||
| Buffalo 4.29 – four games @FLA, @TB, ANA, FLA | ||||||
| Calgary 4.20 – four games MIN, @MIN, @CBJ, @DAL | ||||||
| New Jersey 4.14 – four games NAS, @ATL, @WAS, NYI | ||||||
| Los Angeles 4.10 – four games @NAS, @COL, @CHI, EDM | ||||||
| Tampa Bay 4.06 – four games BUF, CAR, @NYI, @NYR | ||||||
| Steer Clear | ||||||
| Philadelphia 1.88 – two games NYR, FLA | ||||||
| Toronto 1.99 – two games @VAN, ATL | ||||||
| Edmonton 2.04 – two games @SJ, @LA | ||||||
| NYR 2.07 – two games @PHI, TB | ||||||
| Chicago 2.62 – three games DET, LA, NAS | ||||||
| Saturday December 18 to Friday December 24, 2010 | ||||||
| Best Bets | ||||||
| Calgary 4.20 – four games MIN, @MIN, @CBJ, @DAL | ||||||
| Los Angeles 4.10 – four games @NAS, @COL, @CHI, EDM | ||||||
| Tampa Bay 4.06 – four games BUF, CAR, @NYI, @NYR | ||||||
| Vancouver 4.06 – four games TOR, @STL, @DET, @CBJ | ||||||
| St. Louis 3.84 – four games SJ, VAN, @ATL, DET | ||||||
| Steer Clear | ||||||
| Chicago 1.75 – two games LA, NAS | ||||||
| Philadelphia 1.88 – two games NYR, FLA | ||||||
| Ottawa 1.90 – two games WAS, @NAS | ||||||
| Toronto 1.99 – two games @VAN, ATL | ||||||
| Edmonton 2.04 – two games @SJ, @LA | ||||||
| Sunday December 19 to Saturday December 25, 2010 | ||||||
| Best Bets | ||||||
| Montreal 3.35 – three games @COL, @DAL, @CAR | ||||||
| Calgary 3.25 – three games @MIN, @CBJ, @DAL | ||||||
| Tampa Bay 3.22 – three games CAR, @NYI, @NYR | ||||||
| Los Angeles 3.15 – three games @CHI, @COL, EDM | ||||||
| Florida 3.02 – three games @PHI, @PIT, @BUF | ||||||
| Steer Clear | ||||||
| Philadelphia 1.00 – one games FLA | ||||||
| Toronto 1.04 – one game ATL | ||||||
| NY Rangers 1.06 – one game TB | ||||||
| Columbus 1.71 – two games CAL, VAN | ||||||
| Chicago 1.75 – two games LA, NAS | ||||||
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