Earmarked for Success (West 2011): Part Five
Ryan Ma
2011-08-09
Part five of this ongoing series breaking down the scoring lines and depth options.
Note: Take the line combos with a grain of salt. They are just arbitrary and are used primarily to separate a team's top-six from the bottom-six. I really don't want to get into arguments about player X had chemistry with player Y therefore they'll be on a line together during the season.
Here's a summation table of the previous 12 teams that we've covered if you haven't had a chance to read the articles.
Team |
Cavalry |
Cavalry |
Cavalry |
Cavalry |
Anaheim |
Selanne* |
Beleskey |
Cogliano |
McMillan |
Calgary |
Morrison |
Glencross |
|
|
Chicago |
Brunette |
Frolik |
Morin* |
|
Colorado |
Mueller |
Hishon |
Landeskog* |
|
Columbus |
Prospal |
Calvert |
Atkinson* |
|
Dallas |
Ott |
Wandell |
Glennie* |
|
Detroit |
Tatar |
Bertuzzi |
Filppula |
Abdelkader |
Edmonton |
Gagner |
Paajarvi |
Omark |
Nugent-Hopkins |
Los Angeles |
Stoll |
Parse |
Loktionov* |
|
Minnesota |
Cullen |
Bouchard |
Clutterbuck |
|
Nashville |
Geoffrion |
Kostitsyn |
Beck* |
|
Phoenix |
Hanzal |
Turris |
MacLean |
|
San Jose – Top-six pretty much set in stone, shallow competition from bottom-six
Top Six
Patrick Marleau – Joe Thornton – Martin Havlat
Ryane Clowe – Joe Pavelski – Logan Couture
Cavalry
Michal Handzus and James Sheppard
Bottom Feeders
Jamie McGinn, Benn Ferriero, Andrew Murray, Andrew Desjardins, and Torrey Mitchell
Last season, the Sharks took a bit of an offense by committee approach, which explains why you saw the point totals pretty tight amongst the top seven Shark forwards. This season you'll probably see much more of a traditional top-six, bottom-six approach, which should see the top offensive threats return to their norm point production.
Thornton struggled due to the spread of PP ice-time last campaign, which largely explains the decrease in point production. He's a player that needs to garner a large chunk of the team's man advantage time in order to produce big numbers. With the competition from the bottom six largely disappearing, look for JT to inch back towards the century point plateau. Havlat hasn't really had a chance to play alongside a superstar, playmaking center, like Thornton, since 2005 when he played with Jason Spezza. Look for him to return back to the glory point-per-game days with one of the league's best passers feeding him pucks. The biggest beneficiary from the cabinet reshuffle will probably be Pavelski. With the depth the Sharks had the last couple of seasons, Pavelski saw plenty of time in a third-line checking role. Now that the top-six is clearly defined, Pavelski should spend much more time in an offensive role, rather than focussing on stopping the opposition.
Clowe has averaged 0.67 points and 2.08 SOG per contest since entering the NHL. The downside is that he always seems to be hampered by all kinds of knick-knack injuries. Expect a decent line by season's end, but a few games missed as well. Couture had a great sophomore campaign while posting 56 points in 79 games, expect a little bit of an improvement, but don't expect the moon.
If you've bought the guide, then you probably would've seen Handzus' name as part of my sleeper candidates. He is one of the best "tweener" centers in the league. He won't put up mind-boggling numbers, but he'll certainly chip in during an offensive role when called upon. Havlat and Clowe aren't exactly immune to the injury bug, which should enable Handzus to have a shot in a top-six role during the season. Consider Handzus a strong sleeper candidate for 2011-12. Recently acquired Sheppard could also play a role with the Sharks this season. The Sharks always seem to find a way to get the most out of their young talent (Milan Michalek, Steve Bernier, Pavelski, Devin Setoguchi, McGinn, and Couture), Sheppard certainly has the pedigree (225 points in 187 contests in juniors) to continue that trend, but a change of scenery might just be the answer to his early career woes, so keep an eye on that situation.
Last year's pre-season top-six:
Marleau, Thornton, Heatley, Clowe, Pavelski and Setoguchi
End of year finish:
Marleau |
73 |
Thornton |
70 |
Pavelski |
66 |
Heatley |
64 |
Clowe |
62 |
Couture |
56 |
St. Louis – Offense by committee.
Top Six
David Backes – Andy McDonald – T.J. Oshie
Chris Stewart – Patrik Berglund – Alex Steen
Cavalry
Jason Arnott, Jamie Langenbrunner, Matt D'Agostini, David Perron*
Bottom Feeders
B.J. Crombeen, Vladimir Sobotka, Scott Nichol, and Ryan Reaves.
Offensive depth is going to be the name of the game in St. Louis, as you probably won't find many holes amongst the forward line up of the Blues this season. 10 of the 15 players listed above have seen at least one 40-point season so far in their career, so the question that will plague fantasy poolies all season long is whether or not there's going to be enough offense to spread around.
I've kind of just made my educated guess as to how my top-six would look, but in all honesty, everyone's probably going to have a completely different top-six to anyone else, which just shows how unpredictable 2011-12 is going to be for poolies.
Backes and McDonald demonstrated plenty of chemistry as the duo last campaign, so I've decided to keep them together while slotting Oshie in, to complete the trio. He registered 10 points in 13 contests before missing a large chunk of the season due to a broken ankle, and then promptly returned with 24 points in 36 games to finish the season. The offensive depth is going to be a problem, but Oshie seems to be a favourite of coach Davis Payne, that he might just gain immunity. 35 percent of Stewart's points last season came playing alongside Berglund. The two have also demonstrated plenty of chemistry, so look for them to be reunited once again. Steen has averaged 12 PPP per season for the last three seasons. If you are looking some help in that department strongly consider him as an option.
The cavalry list is long and large, starting with the new veteran acquisitions of Arnott and Langenbrunner. Both are on the other side of the hill and won't entirely steal the limelight, but they're still plenty capable of chipping in on the offensive front in a support role. D'Agostini had a solid breakout campaign last year, and should probably get first dibs in a top-six role if a major injury were to happen, but if that doesn't happen he could be toiling in mediocrity all season long. Consider him a boom or bust (feast or famine) candidate. The latest news out of the Perron camp is that he's not going to be ready for the start of the season. Concussions are a major issue and with the depth that the Blues have this campaign, they probably won't rush him back before he's 100 percent ready.
Reaves only had a brief cup of coffee with the Blues last season, but still managed to register 86 HITs and 78 PIMs in just 28 contests. If you pro-rated that over a course of a full 82-game season, it would've ranked him amongst the top-eight in both categories. If you're looking for an under-the-radar HIT and PIM machine look no further than Reaves.
Last year's pre-season top-six:
Backes, McDonald, Boyes, Perron, Oshie and Steen
End of year finish:
Backes |
62 |
Stewart |
53 |
Berglund |
52 |
Steen |
51 |
McDonald |
50 |
D'Agostini |
46 |
Vancouver- Top-six pretty much set in stone almost no depth beyond top-six
Top Six
Daniel Sedin – Henrik Sedin – Marco Sturm
Mason Raymond – Ryan Kesler* – Alex Burrows
Cavalry
Mikael Samuelsson, Cody Hodgson and Sergei Shirokov
Bottom Feeders
Chris Higgins, Manny Malhotra, Janik Hansen, Maxim Lapierre, Andrew Ebbett, Mark Mancari
The Canucks finished the season ranked as the top offensive team in the league. They haven't done much in the off-season to alter their line up, so expect much of the same this campaign.
The Sedins are the driving force of the Canucks offense, the duo have each averaged 1.28 points and 2.63 SOG per contest during the last two seasons. What's also amazing is that the duo has averaged 62.5 PPP per season during that span as well. The money spot of the lineup is the player which gets to complete the trio. On even strength, it has been mostly Burrows, but on the PP it's been Samuelsson. Newcomer, Sturm, might throw a wrench into things this campaign, as his free skating playing style, IMO, definitely complements the play of the Sedins. He could be a very sneaky late-round draft pick up that could pay huge dividends by season's end.
There are many arguments that can be made for which player is the most important to the Vancouver line up. My vote would have to go to Kesler, as it would be impossible to replace everything that he does (PK, FW, HITS, BS and secondary scoring) with just a single player. He recent underwent surgery to repair a torn labrum in his hip which will sideline him till mid-October at the earliest. I'm always a bit wary of hip and shoulder injuries, so expect a bit of a decline in his performance this season. 59 percent of Raymond's points last season came playing alongside Kesler. With him out of the lineup, expect Raymond's production to also take a bit of a hit.
Samuelsson has been pretty consistent in a Canuck uniform. He's averaged 74.5 games played, 51.5 points, a plus nine rating, 16.5 PPP, and 217 SOG for the last two years. As long as you expect pretty much the same, you probably won't be too far off from your initial projections. The biggest beneficiary to Kesler's injury might be youngster Hodgson. He was highly touted during his draft year back in 2008, but a string of injuries temporarily derailed his young career. He'll certainly get a long look at training camp and possibly a top-six gig to start the season or at least until Kesler returns. Shirokov has posted 103 points in 158 career AHL games with the Moose. There's not much left for him to prove in the minors, but is there a spot for him with the big club in 2011-12?
Malholtra led the league in faceoff winning percentage amongst all players that participated in more than 1000 draws. He won a whopping 61.7 percent of the faceoffs he participated in, if you are in a league that counts FW percentage as a stat, you can't steer away from Malholtra especially now that Kesler is out of the lineup for the start of the season.
Last year's pre-season top-six:
D. Sedin, H. Sedin, Samuelsson, Raymond, Kesler and Burrows
End of year finish:
D. Sedin |
104 |
H. Sedin |
94 |
Kesler |
73 |
Samuelsson |
50 |
Burrows |
48 |
Raymond |
39 |
Thanks for sticking with me the last few weeks. Hopefully you guys found the information useful and are able to utilize it for your drafts in the upcoming season. I've had a pleasure doing the research as well as having some hotly debated topics in the comments section, so if you have questions or comments as always I'll be willing to discuss them in the section below.