JiriTlusty USA Today

Sometimes, all an NHL player needs is a chance. Jiri Tlusty received his last year.

And a player needs to be ready, because they never know when that opportunity will come. Sometimes it's an increase in ice time when a teammate gets injured, clicking with the new linemates or switching from defence to forward.

Or in some cases, all it takes is a new coach who is willing to give you that chance.

That's what happened with Jiri Tlusty last season. Once Kirk Muller took over the head coaching duties in Carolina, Tlusty has seen an increase in ice time and quality of linemates, helping him finish fifth in the goal-scoring race this past year

Just look at his top linemates from the last three seasons.

2010-11

Frequency	Strength	Line Combination
21.45%	EV	39 DWYER,PATRICK – 16 SUTTER,BRANDON – 19 TLUSTY,JIRI
14.69%	EV	59 LAROSE,CHAD – 16 SUTTER,BRANDON – 19 TLUSTY,JIRI
11.59%	EV	36 JOKINEN,JUSSI – 16 SUTTER,BRANDON – 19 TLUSTY,JIRI
9.65%	EV	20 BODIE,TROY – 29 CARTER,RYAN – 19 TLUSTY,JIRI
8.25%	EV	39 DWYER,PATRICK – 71 SAMSON,JEROME – 19 TLUSTY,JIRI
5.94%	EV	14 SAMSONOV,SERGEI – 16 SUTTER,BRANDON – 19 TLUSTY,JIRI

2011-12

Frequency	Strength	Line Combination
18.79%	EV	39 DWYER,PATRICK – 16 SUTTER,BRANDON – 19 TLUSTY,JIRI
15.97%	EV	15 RUUTU,TUOMO – 12 STAAL,ERIC – 19 TLUSTY,JIRI
14.21%	EV	59 LAROSE,CHAD – 12 STAAL,ERIC – 19 TLUSTY,JIRI
5.81%	EV	71 SAMSON,JEROME – 12 STAAL,ERIC – 19 TLUSTY,JIRI
3.99%	EV	12 STAAL,ERIC – 13 STEWART,ANTHONY – 19 TLUSTY,JIRI
3.77%	EV	39 DWYER,PATRICK – 12 STAAL,ERIC – 19 TLUSTY,JIRI
3.18%	EV	59 LAROSE,CHAD – 16 SUTTER,BRANDON – 19 TLUSTY,JIRI

2012-13

Frequency	Strength	Line Combination
59.3%	EV	28 SEMIN,ALEXANDER – 12 STAAL,ERIC – 19 TLUSTY,JIRI
3.59%	EV	39 DWYER,PATRICK – 12 STAAL,ERIC – 19 TLUSTY,JIRI
3.22%	PP	28 SEMIN,ALEXANDER – 12 STAAL,ERIC – 19 TLUSTY,JIRI
2.89%	EV	59 LAROSE,CHAD – 12 STAAL,ERIC – 19 TLUSTY,JIRI
1.97%	PP	28 SEMIN,ALEXANDER – 53 SKINNER,JEFF – 12 STAAL,ERIC – 19 TLUSTY,JIRI
1.72%	EV	28 SEMIN,ALEXANDER – 11 STAAL,JORDAN – 19 TLUSTY,JIRI

Going from playing with Patrick Dwyer and Brandon Sutter to Eric Staal and Alexander Semin is a huge upgrade.

In the 102 games Tlusty has played for Muller, he has 65 points, a 0.64 points-per-game pace, highlighted by last season's 38 points in 48 games. In 174 games with other coaches, Tlusty has 47 points, for a 0.27 points-per-game pace.

And while Muller may have shown faith in his player, you can sum up Tlusty's breakout season in two simple words: Eric Staal.

Line production

Total Points for Jiri Tlusty : 38 📢 advertisement:
Str	On Ice Line Combination	Points	%Total Points
EV	SEMIN,ALEXANDER – STAAL,ERIC – TLUSTY,JIRI	20	52.63%
PP	SEMIN,ALEXANDER – STAAL,ERIC – TLUSTY,JIRI	4	10.53%
PP	BRENT,TIM – SEMIN,ALEXANDER – STAAL,ERIC – TLUSTY,JIRI	3	7.89%
EV	SEMIN,ALEXANDER – STAAL,JORDAN – TLUSTY,JIRI	3	7.89%
EV	STAAL,ERIC – TLUSTY,JIRI – WALLACE,TIM	1	2.63%
EV	STAAL,ERIC – TLUSTY,JIRI – WESTGARTH,KEVIN	1	2.63%
EV	JOKINEN,JUSSI – STAAL,ERIC – TLUSTY,JIRI	1	2.63%
PP	SKINNER,JEFF – STAAL,ERIC – TLUSTY,JIRI	1	2.63%
EV	LAROSE,CHAD – STAAL,ERIC – TLUSTY,JIRI	1	2.63%
EV	SEMIN,ALEXANDER – STAAL,ERIC – STAAL,JORDAN – TLUSTY,JIRI	1	2.63%
EV	DWYER,PATRICK – STAAL,ERIC – TLUSTY,JIRI	1	2.63%
EV	BRENT,TIM – LAROSE,CHAD – NASH,RILEY – TLUSTY,JIRI	1	2.63%

Staal was on the ice for 34 of Tlusty's 38 points, almost 90 per cent. And as you can see, Tlusty had only eight powerplay points. Staal was on the ice for every one of those, as well. Staal is the catalyst of this whole thing. As he goes, so too goes Tlusty.

Time on Ice

	TOI	PP TOI
2012-13	18:14	2:37
2011-12	14:54	0:51
2010-11	9:51	0:09

Since Muller took over, Tlusty has seen a major increase in ice time and powerplay ice time, two more reasons for the points increase.

In the first 25 games of the 2011-12 season under Paul Maurice, Tlusty played less than 12:30 on nine occasions. In 102 games with Muller, he's only played less than 12:30 five times.

So was Tlusty a one-season wonder, or is this the start of a fantasy-relevant hockey career?

Tlusty's value skyrockets in salary cap leagues. He is slated to make $1.6 million this season. How many first-line players that have a shot at 60-plus points making less than $2 million? Not many.

There are some other things working in Tlusty's favour in non-salary leagues: There's no reason to expect that Tlusty will not be playing with Eric Staal to start the season as there was no major signing or trade this summer that could take ice time away from him. Muller is still the head coach and has faith in Tlusty. The powerplay should be better than what it was last season, which will give Tlusty more points.

However, there are still reasons to be skeptical. Tlusty's shooting percentage was a whopping 19.7 per cent last year, which was 10^th in the league for guys playing at least 30 games. His 5-on-5 PDO — which basically measures luck — was 1.040, 16^th in the league among guys who have played at least 500 minutes. Eric Staal injured his knee last year at the World Championships in May, so he may not be 100 per cent by the time the season begins on Oct. 4 against the Detroit Red Wings.

With no real competition behind him, Tlusty should be solid as a top linemate for Eric Staal for the upcoming season. Unless he falters big time, he should expect to stay there for quite a while.

Previous Forensics Posts:

David Krejci

Travis Zajac

This year, he should be able to replicate his points-per-game pace of 0.79. Pencil him in for 65 points.

UPCOMING GAMES

Nov 21 - 19:11	WSH	vs	COL
Nov 21 - 19:11	CBJ	vs	T.B
Nov 21 - 19:11	OTT	vs	VGK
Nov 21 - 19:11	DET	vs	NYI
Nov 21 - 19:11	BOS	vs	UTA
Nov 21 - 19:11	N.J	vs	CAR
Nov 21 - 20:11	STL	vs	S.J
Nov 21 - 20:11	CHI	vs	FLA
Nov 21 - 21:11	CGY	vs	NYR
Nov 21 - 21:11	EDM	vs	MIN