April 18, 2014

steve laidlaw

2014-04-18

Happy Easter Weekend! I hope you fill it with much family and hockey, not necessarily in that order.

 

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The Rangers-Flyers opener was everything I expected it to be, which is to say, the Rangers dominated the play. Just not a good matchup for Philadelphia. The Rangers won't get sucked into Philadelphia's nonsense and take penalties the way a team like Pittsburgh will. And you absolutely cannot take penalties against this Flyers team.

 

Ray Emery did his best to keep the Flyers in it for much of the game but the Rangers were just relentless. It was like watching geology:


"Geology is the study of pressure and time. That's all it takes really. Pressure, and time."

 

The Flyers are counting on that quote to apply with their "dump it against Ryan McDonagh and his wonky shoulder" strategy (the name is a work in-progress). It worked for their opening goal and it may wear the top defenseman down but I don't think it's an advisable strategy – neither does Eric Tulsky. You simply aren't going to succeed dumping it in against a possession team like the Rangers. That's what they want.

 

After all that time and pressure, when the Flyers took a double-minor early in the third period the levies were ready to burst. Boom 3-1.

 

Flyers rookie Jason Akeson, the poor kid, took the penalty and gets goat status. I actually liked the flashes of offense he showed. Didn't think he'd have the size to compete at this level and that may prove to be correct yet. He did get smushed quite a few times.

 

It was Brad Richards, of all people, who scored the game winner and led the way with three points. Martin St. Louis added two assists of his own. Vincent Lecavalier, skating for the Flyers, couldn't complete the throwback. In fact, I'm not sure he can even compete any more.

 

There was one play where the Rangers defenseman turned it over at the offensive blueline and I figured this would be a sure break for the Flyers, especially because the defender on the other side was transitioning back so slowly.

 

Turns out he simply saw it was Lecavalier who had the puck and was unconcerned. Lecavalier moves like a stone. He couldn't start a break if you shot him out of a slingshot.

 

Kimmo Timonen looked pretty banged up. To be fair, I can't remember a time he wasn't nursing some kind of injury but he rarely missed time. A true gamer. I can understand why he plans on retiring but it's going to be sad to see him go when he does.

 

Scott Hartnell and Jakub Voracek died their beards black. Not sure why they couldn't just accept their team identity as the ginger beards.

 

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This Blues-Hawks series though, it's the one for me. Just great hockey. It's a real shame one of these teams will be done two weeks from now.

 

Both teams came into the series ragged with injuries but basically everyone was back save for TJ Oshie and Patrik Berglund for St. Louis. Even Vladimir Tarasenko got back, which was a huge surprise to me. I took him in a couple of playoff pools expecting him to be back for round two. Game one, round one? Bonus!

 

Tarasenko's going to have a chance to make his name in these playoffs. I know we generally don't want to overrate playoff performance but this is a case where I'm expecting this guy to breakout soon anyhow. Why not during the playoffs? His depth scoring will be huge in this series because the Blues' top line was effectively blanketed until the third overtime when Steen scored the winner.

 

Jaden Schwartz is another one who will be tremendously important. He scored the clutch tying goal late in the third. That was his first ever in the Stanley Cup Playoffs. First of many. He looks like a big-game player.

 

I thought the Blackhawks were the slightly better team though the game was a mostly back-and-forth affair. I mean, a game goes to a third overtime so that probably means it was anyone's game. Sure enough, it was St. Louis'.

 

Certainly St. Louis controlled the play in the third, which is what you'd expect given they were in desperation mode. What I still don't understand is how Chicago could let St. Louis run show all third and then when the tying goal gets scored they flip the momentum back and own the final 1:45 plus a good deal of the first overtime period. What were they waiting for? To lose I suppose.

 

It's worth noting that Ryan Miller looked awfully shaky in the first period giving up three goals. He settled down and blanked the Blackhawks the rest of the way though. If you toss away the first period he shut them out for four straight. Not bad.

 

This was Miller's first playoff game in three years so I'll cut him some slack. He deserves some slack for the third goal. Pretty sure we'd all look useless with Patrick Kane in all alone. Check out the perfect pass from Jonathan Toews to set him up. That he hits Kane in stride in the tiny window to keep him onside is what makes it so brilliant.

 

 

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There was another come-from-behind thriller last night, this one in Colorado. I missed Minnesota jumping out to the lead but I saw Colorado rally the troops in the third.

 

How clutch was Paul Stastny? Scores the tying goal to force overtime with 14 seconds left and then buries the overtime winner. That’s a couple million on his new deal easily, right there.

 

Full credit to Erik Johnson on the tying goal. He made sure he got the puck on net with a shot-blocker in his face. The rebound kicked to Stastny and the rest is history. Stastny gets the glory but I won't forget the shot because you knew he couldn't score with it but he had the wherewithal to get it to the net anyway.

 

How about the kids too? Nathan MacKinnon gets three assists in his first playoff game? No big deal. Tyson Barrie nearly matches him with two dimes of his own.

 

I have been pondering long and hard about selling high on Barrie but I can't bring myself to do it. I think he can be really good. Like consistent 40-50 points good. And with the forwards in Colorado that could easily go higher. I don't want to overrate him though so I'm trying to rein it in. Seems impossible, I'm full of optimism.

 

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That's a really tough way to lose if you're Minnesota. If they take game one that's sweep potential right there just because of all the youth in Colorado. I mean, how many of those guys have won a playoff series. If they pour it all out there and come up short on the comeback I could see that deflating them. Now the Avalanche are full of confidence.

 

There are enough veterans in Minnesota that I'm not worried about the gut-punch potential, like I was with Columbus yesterday. I am worried about the whole Ilya Bryzgalov as their starter though. He had a nice run to end the season and I don't think he's to blame for all those goals – they were all scored from knife-fighting range – but at a certain point you look at the track record and ask yourself if he's dependable. I have no faith. Do the guys in the dressing room?

 

Maybe this was all karma for scratching Dany Heatley's corpse.

 

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What's the deal with the Pacific Division and huge leads? They love jumping out to them and handing them right back or something. To be fair, the Sharks never let the Kings make it a game the way that the Ducks had the Stars but still, 5-0 becomes 5-3? Nervous.

 

The Sharks appear (I didn't catch much of the game what with overtimes going on elsewhere) to have given a total team effort. Tomas Hertl made his return to the lineup allowing the Sharks to spread their talent and roll four lines. That's essential against Los Angeles because that's normally how the Kings have steamrolled teams in the past.

 

This game appears (again, wasn't watching) to have lived up to its billing as the most physical series. Maybe this was just the scorers in San Jose but they had the teams combining for 121 hits with LA carrying a significant edge, which is why I buy those numbers at least a bit.

 

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121 hits… my goodness that's a lot of body smashing. I said it before and I'll say it again, no team is escaping this series alive. I know one team moves on but how are they escaping without serious injuries? The only way is if the Sharks keep jumping out to huge leads but good luck with that. I still think this series goes the distance even after that result. All to be fodder for the Ducks.

 

Hopefully the Hawks and Blues can be a little bit more decisive so that I can get some enjoyment out of this California clash. The arms race out West really seems to have developed the best rivalries in hockey. I don't want to miss out.

 

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Ryan Getzlaf got smoked in the face at the end of game one on Wednesday night. Apparently he's ready to go tonight. Looks great too.

 

Matt Beleskey on the other hand:

 

 

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It was fun while it lasted Tampa Bay.

 

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Spoiler Alert! The NHL gives Sidney Crosby the Hart Trophy two months early.

 

I mentioned yesterday that Crosby would be my choice. I am a firm believer that the best skater on Earth should win the MVP. Crosby is obviously that. One commenter agreed but mentioned that Semyon Varlamov would make the only logical competitor.

 

I disagree but that's because I am staunchly against goaltenders competing for the MVP. If you treat the MVP as its definition of "Most Valuable" then you are giving it to an elite goaltender on a bad team like Varlamov this year because no one makes a bigger difference.

 

Not that Colorado was BAD – at least not in the way that the Buffalo Sabres were bad – but if you gave the Avalanche league-average goaltending instead of the elite play of Varlamov then the Avalanche aren’t a playoff team, or at least not a division winner.

 

And I know that the NHL has a separate trophy for the best player in the league but I don't take the Ted Lindsay Trophy all that seriously. I mean, they've got one for the leading scorer, one for the MVP and one for the MOP? How many trophies do you need? We're this far away from participation ribbons.

 

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FiveThirtyEight argues that a hot goalie isn't necessarily a better goalie.

 

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Darren Kennedy shares the Coyotes' seven fantasy secrets:


No one knows who Mikkel Boedker is.


I'm convinced that this is solely because his name is so damned hard to spell properly. He really shouldn’t be so far under the radar – drafted 8th overall in the 2008 draft he has the pedigree to be a consistent option. This year was a big step towards fantasy relevance with 51 points and 166 shots. I'm guessing he'll be around in the very late rounds of next year's draft, an absolute bargain.

 

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Some interesting tidbits from John Tavares after cleaning out his locker:


On whether he’d like to have his linemates set: “It's always nice to know, you like to know. We do have a little bit of a logjam up the middle with Brock, Stromie, myself, Frans and Casey [Cizikas]. Stromie's made a great case for himself to be here full time next year and we all know what Brock's done. Brock played with me on the left a little bit this year and I really enjoyed playing with him. I think he's going to be a special player. We had some good chemistry together. Whether that happens or they make some other decisions, either free agency or trade or through the draft. You do always like to know [who you're playing with], but I think we saw what some of the younger guys can do. I played in the playoffs last year with Josh [Bailey] a little bit, I played with Grabs [Michael Grabner] a bit. You know their games and you prepare yourself

 

No mention of Anders Lee is disappointing to me. I want him in that spot. Brock Nelson works too, I guess.

 

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Puck Daddy looks at how teams were negatively affected by sending players to Sochi:


In 2012, he found that a team's goal differential "dropped by 0.088 of a goal per game compared with its performance before the Games," according to the New York Times, for every player it sent to the Olympics. The more Olympians on the team, the more that team's numbers trended downward after the Games.


Longley ran the numbers through last Friday's games, and discovered the trend has continued after the Sochi Games, as goal differential dropped by 0.077 per Olympian.

 

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Grantland looks at why the West is fun.

 

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You can follow me on Twitter @SteveLaidlaw.

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