June 18, 2014

Dobber

2014-06-18

Buy my eighth annual Prospects Report here. Includes Mock Draft and nearly 500 prospect profiles. Yep, 500. About 200 more than you’ll ever consider for your league – but part of the information is telling you which guys ‘not’ to go after, right?

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Garth Snow has now made it known that he is shopping Dan Boyle’s rights. Frankly, I think he can get a sixth-round pick out of it and in the end – just for trying – it only costs him a downgrade from fifth to sixth. To me, it’s great and he should keep trying – it’s far easier for the Isles to sign a free agent now, then on the open market. Because “now” they have a few days to sweet talk him and sell him on the team’s growth. And if a player wants to wager on a team winning a Cup within three years, the Isles are as reasonable a bet as a dozen other teams…and a better bet than a dozen others.

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Man, that Rick Roos can sure churn out some Ramblings, eh? Then he jumps in three times for updates throughout the day. Which is great. Except that it sucked away half of my material for tonight. Well, let’s see if I can persevere.

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I can still comment on some of his updates, of course, so I’ll say a few words about Ville Leino and David Booth. As I noted in the forum, I think Leino is probably done in the NHL. My hunch is that he does not get another NHL contract in the summer and at best gets a training camp invite. He may – possibly – earn a contract from his camp showing. But I’m guessing there is a lot more money waiting for him in Europe.

I suspect that Booth will be another camp invite and this time he’ll accept it and earn a contract. You’ll see him on a team next year. But his problem will be health. If he can stay healthy, he could have at best a Steve Bernier-like recovery in his career and be a serviceable checking-line player. Neither Booth nor Leino are worth owning.

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My Hockey News piece yesterday looks at the Preds and the Devils.

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Lou Lamoriello says that Ryane Clowe is okay now – remember he sustained a concussion in late March. He’s working out without any problems. Clowe was back to his 50-point self last season when he did play. I think his last season and first couple of seasons with San Jose is reflective of what you can expect from him – 45 to 52 points in 70 to 76 games. His 57- and 62-point campaigns were the exceptions and not the norm.

Also in the above-referenced article, they go into detail about how Lou is trying to sign (or has signed) his entire team back. I love the strategy there – ‘we suck, we don’t make the playoffs, so let’s keep this team together because everyone on it is good and worth keeping’

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As a Stalock owner, I’m disappointed in this one – but Alex Stalock re-signed with San Jose. He was an unrestricted free agent (or would have been). Not only that, but he signed on the cheap – $1.5 million next season and $1.7 the season after.

On one hand, Stalock as a UFA could have hit the jackpot. But it was a very deep goalie pool that he was getting into and even though he could very well be the best goalie available – he’s largely unproven and no NHL GM would treat him like he was the best. On the  other hand, staying with San Jose he remains with a team who knows him, loves him, plays in front of him and virtually guarantees that when he does appear between the pipes – his numbers will be good. But with such a small contract, how often will that happen? The coach feels zero pressure to play him when he’s being paid pretty close to backup money.

That being said, he is a better goaltender than Antti Niemi and as 2014-15 wears on you will start to see that. I predict a goalie controversy for next year’s playoffs (even more than this year’s), and that Stalock will be the starter in 2015-16. Mark it! So any disappointment in this move is simply because gratification is delayed a year.

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It really does seem here as though the Sharks are in full-on rebuild mode. At least, that’s the angle that David Pollak (the writer) took from it. Talking about the Sharks missing the playoffs? I’ve hinted as much the past two seasons, but each time they prove me wrong. Now they’re finally doing it. Here is another angle from USA Today, who take the same slant – so I’m guessing that they have the tone of that press conference correct.

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Well, I don’t like players when they act on bad advice – be it from an agent or their own misguided sense of value. I get down on them pretty easily when they hold off for more money that they don’t deserve. And then when they get it – they complain a few years later that owners weren’t showing restraint and “why are we locked out?” Which brings me to Ryan O’Reilly. It bothered me when, after the lockout, he sat out until he got $12.5 million over two years – from another team. The Avs weren’t giving anything near that to him, especially right after the lockout. But when the Flames stepped in with their offer, the Avs gave it to him. But make no mistake – at the time, he was looking at Nazem Kadri money or slightly better. So, call it two years maybe $7 million. So he gets $5.5 more than he should have. And did he end up earning the $12.5 million? Perhaps. In the end. A more realistic number based on what he produced and brought to the team would be $5.5 million, but it’s close. And that’s neither here nor there. What my point is – is that he did not earn the gradual raises that his NHLPA brethren earn, and instead he jumped right up to a third contract and skipped the second contract altogether.

There is a big hullaballoo about the ‘code’ in hockey. No hotdogging, for example. Hockey is big on codes and big on players doing what they’re supposed to do. Well, O’Reilly was not supposed to skip the bridge contract. So that rubbed me the wrong way but not enough to make me dislike him. Everyone has players that they don’t like for whatever reason, and at this point he was not on my list.

O’Reilly is allowed to exercise his rights and sit out until he gets a contract he likes, and sign a contract with another team – as is his right. But he (or his agent) can whine and cry when the team exercises their right (arbitration)? Get this – because the contract he signed, as an attempt to pry him away from Colorado by Calgary, was frontloaded with a bonus, his “cap hit” was only $5 million. And that’s the number looked at in arbitation. O’Reilly signed a deal in an effort to weasel more money (and all the power to him), and now his agent Pat Morris is mystified as to why the Avs want to begin negotiations using the cap hit number instead of the salary number? Sorry Pat, you can’t have it both ways. And when you cry like a baby over not getting that bonus car you would have gotten, you make me desperately wish that you and your client get the lowest possible contract award. I love the fact that arbitration guarantees that O’Reilly has to play in 2014-15 and that you can’t sit out again and await a better number (that you don’t deserve – you ‘maybe’ earned the money from the last contract… maybe…but you’re certainly not a $7 million player). And I don’t think it’s all Pat Morris, given his quote: “but there's a history a little bit on the previous contract and Ryan is a stubborn young man."

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It’s looking more and more as though the Avs will get an arbitration award of one year at around $6 million, or two at $12 million. That’s pretty good for O’Reilly. Very good, in fact. It just pisses me off that he won’t be happy with it. He’ll sulk and demand a trade, and I think he’ll get one. I’ll be surprised if he is still there in November.

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Rogers added two more to their Hockey Night in Canada staff. They wisely added Elliotte Friedman, who one of the best in the business – if not the best – when it comes to interviews and digging up info. They also added Scott Oake.

Next up – PJ Stock?

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The Texas Stars have won the Calder Cup. As with the NHL, it took them five games to put St. John’s away. Travis Morin led the league in scoring with 22 points in 21 games (last year Ondrej Palat was the leader). The highest points-per-game players in the Top 20 were Peter Holland (Toronto) with 15 points in 11 games and Ryan Spooner (Boston) with 15 in 12. Both have real good shots at being full-time NHLers next year. Actually, I think Holland is a lock. Or he better be.

Brendan Ranford had six points in the last five games to really make a mark for Texas. He’s looking for an NHL team to sign him again. Bill Ranford’s nephew is a former Philly draft pick and recently turned 22.

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The DobberHockey and DobberProspects writers each grabbed an NHL team and are doing a mock draft. I got handed Ottawa and I’ll also take any other team if a writer bails or can’t make his pick for some reason. But for right now, I’m Ottawa and I don’t pick until the second round. But you can follow along here.

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Here are Alec Martinez and Justin Williams on the Jimmy Kimmel show – they mix and drink a margarita from the Stanley Cup:

 

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And the mayor of New York losing the bet and singing “I love LA”:

 

 

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UPCOMING GAMES

Dec 22 - 12:12 NYR vs CAR
Dec 22 - 17:12 T.B vs FLA
Dec 22 - 17:12 UTA vs ANA
Dec 22 - 17:12 WSH vs L.A
Dec 22 - 20:12 EDM vs OTT
Dec 22 - 20:12 COL vs SEA

Starting Goalies

Top Skater Views

  Players Team
PATRIK LAINE MTL
LANE HUTSON MTL
JACKSON LACOMBE ANA
ALEX TURCOTTE L.A
DYLAN GUENTHER UTA

Top Goalie Profile Views

  Players Team
JESPER WALLSTEDT MIN
MACKENZIE BLACKWOOD COL
KAREL VEJMELKA UTA
LEEVI MERILAINEN OTT
FILIP GUSTAVSSON MIN

LINE COMBOS

  Frequency WSH Players
22.8 ALIAKSEI PROTAS CONNOR MCMICHAEL PIERRE-LUC DUBOIS
20.1 TOM WILSON DYLAN STROME ANDREW MANGIAPANE
14.9 IVAN MIROSHNICHENKO BRANDON DUHAIME NIC DOWD

DobberHockey Podcasts

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