September 25, 2014
steve laidlaw
2014-09-25
Betting Patrick Kane for the Art Ross, the impact of Stepan's injury and more…
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That was a depressing 48 hours of injuries to start this week as a number of really talented players went down with fairly significant injuries. It's starting to make me question the whole point of pre-season hockey.
I know that some guys need to get their legs back and teams need to test their strategies in a game environment. They also need to give their new players a chance to compete for roster spots and develop chemistry. My question is whether or not they need six games to do so.
With off-season training regimens the way they are, basically no one actually needs a training camp to get into NHL shape. The days of sweating out last summer's beers are long gone.
Also, most teams are still implementing systems well into the season and they are even granted nine games with which to tryout junior players before they have to make a decision on whether or not to keep them. Sure, those games count in the standings but the teams still use them in a similar way that they use pre-season games in terms of trying out lineup combinations and implementing strategies.
Ultimately, you aren't getting rid of the pre-season. And the good news is that NHL teams are smart about how they deploy their best players during the pre-season. Teams do their best to limit their exposure and keep them ready for the real games. Still, players are getting hurt and the games don't mean anything, which makes the pre-season a pet peeve of mine.
I also happen to think that the NHL season is too long, the loser point is a huge loser, shootouts blow and so does Ondrej Pavelec but maybe we'll save those topics for another time.
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On the injury front, it turns out that Derek Stepan's injury is a broken leg. He'll miss the first month or so of the season, which will help to make this a second down season in a row for him.
Stepan will be sorely missed in the Rangers lineup as they lack depth up the middle. Look for Derick Brassard to step onto the top power play unit to open the year, which could give him a little boost, though there are no guarantees that power play unit will actually be any good.
Beyond Brassard, the Rangers options up the middle are Matt Lombardi and Dominic Moore… Yikes!
JT Miller is the front runner to jump up to big club and soak up Stepan's top six minutes, which makes him a dark horse to have a productive opening month. I might slide Miller in as a late round pick in deeper leagues to see if he can't catch fire early and then try to flip him. I'd do the same with Brassard though obviously he should be going much higher.
10. Erik Karlsson, D, Ottawa: What's that you say? A defenseman hasn't finished in the top 10 in scoring in two decades? That's true, but Karlsson has come very close, coming 11th in 2011-12 and 14th last season. Karlsson will continue to feast on power play and score a career high in points.
The whole list itself isn't actually that ridiculous but it starts out that way. Karlsson might actually finish in the top 10 in scoring this season. And it's all well and good to list him there if you want but that's not what this list is. This is a list of the players with the best shot of leading the league in scoring and sorry to say but Karlsson is not among them.
This might be a bit confusing so allow me to break it down. If you are projecting Karlsson to finish in the top 10 in scoring you are probably projecting a very good season for him but you are also projecting for several players with much higher upside than Karlsson to get injured or slump and fall short. This is perfectly reasonable but does not make Karlsson a better candidate to lead the entire league in scoring.
For Karlsson to lead the entire league in scoring he needs the 15-20 forwards ahead of him to all get hurt or suffer slumps throughout the year and for him to have a great year. The odds of that happening are off the charts. So please, if you are going to bet on a long shot to win the scoring race, don't make it Karlsson.
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This is actually a good opportunity to talk about some bets you can make. Bodog put up their pre-season award winners odds. I can tell you right now that it's a great thing to be coming off of a year where Crosby led the league in scoring because the odds are now stacked INCREDIBLY towards him repeating despite the fact that he gets hurt often.
I'm looking at the list and everyone not named Crosby, Ovechkin or Stamkos has tasty odds. Everyone outside of the top three names has at least 10/1 odds attached, which is decent. Patrick Kane (35/1) and Taylor Hall (50/1) are the most intriguing to me though.
Hall has scored better than a point per game the last couple of seasons and that's been with a mediocre power play. They crank things up a notch in Edmonton, particularly if Ryan Nugent-Hopkins has a breakout then we'll see Hall hit even higher heights. He also needs to stay healthy as well.
Kane needs to stay healthy too (because you aren't winning the Art Ross if you don't) but beyond last season, Kane hasn't had much in the way of injuries the way Hall has so it's a lot easier to see him scoring a league-leading rate.
Remember, this is a guy who scored 108 points over a stretch of 88 games, all in the 2013 calendar year. Seasons aren't broken up by calendar years though so this is a bit of cherry-picking but I don't think it's inconceivable that Kane could put together a similar stretch in the span of a season rather than a calendar year.
And in case you were curious, 108 points over 88 games is equivalent to a 100-point pace over 82 games. That wouldn't have been enough to dethrone Crosby last season but it would have been second by a comfortable margin.
Oh yeah, and he does stuff like this:
You're giving me 35/1 odds on that guy? Consider my bet locked in.
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If you are looking for a sleeper Hits/PIM guy for your rotisserie league. Zach Sill is making a name for himself at Penguins camp.
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More from Justin Bourne's excellent series on unique team traits. This time he talks about the Rangers' neutral zone speed. I can't get enough of these articles.
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Sean McIndoe discusses five holdouts who changed the NHL.
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I didn't embed the video but check out Cuba Gooding Jr.'s cellie after scoring from center ice.
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You can follow me @SteveLaidlaw.