September 27, 2014

steve laidlaw

2014-09-27

Giving up on Markstrom, more injury news, forward tandems and more…

 

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The Canucks have placed Jacob Markstrom on waivers. Yikes! What a precipitous fall. Once upon a time this guy was viewed as the best goalie prospect around. Now, he's just about worthless in fantasy leagues.

 

It was pretty clear how far he had fallen when Florida continually refused to commit to him and then gave him away in the Roberto Luongo trade. This makes two franchises that have given up on Markstrom. Let's all follow suit.

 

Whenever I think about goalie value I'm often reminded of the baseball saying, "there's no such thing as a pitching prospect." You could say something similar about goalies. Although I think we are getting better at identifying talent at the lower levels I think that more than anything coaching and technological advances have made it easier to be an adequate goaltender, which blurs the margins between the bad and then good. So what we're left with is a ton of goalies who really could be NHL goalies. But the percentage who don't make it is still huge compared highly drafted forwards.

 

Let's use Markstrom as a reminder that the best way to find the next big thing is to take a whole bunch of goalie prospects and fall into one by sheer chance or to wait patiently for the NHL production to actually take place before going in on a goalie.

 

Still, there's always a chance he salvages his career. It's just not large enough to cling to hope in anything outside of the deepest of pools. I'm talking pools where over a thousand players/prospects are owned throughout the league. Odds are this isn't your pool so you can safely give up on him.

 

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Looks like Thomas Vanek and Keith Ballard are day-to-day for the Wild. In Vanek's case, it doesn't sound serious. In Ballard's… well… who cares?

 

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Viktor Stalberg is yet another to suffer a training camp injury. He'll miss 2-4 weeks. We don't really care about Stalberg for fantasy purposes though, do we?

 

The plus here is that there's more room for a prospect like Filip Forsberg or Calle Jarnkrok to lock down a roster spot.

 

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NHL.com's Eric Goodman looks at the 10 best fantasy hockey pairings:

 

Fresh off a Stanley Cup championship in which they combined for the most team playoff goals, Kopitar and Gaborik provide high-impact potential for your team in 2014-15. If you draft Kopitar early, don’t wait until the seventh round for Gaborik or you might miss out on claiming this potent pair. If their success in the Stanley Cup Playoffs is any indication, these Kings can help you capture your league crown.

 

First of all, I have to confess that I've been impressed with NHL.com's fantasy content this fall. They've really made a strong push. Not only are they pumping out a lot of content but they've put together some thoughtful and creative pieces. I still think we've got the best product by far but I still like what they've done.

 

Now, this is an interesting topic and one up for serious debate. Those who have been forum members for some time will recall this "fantasy pairings theory". The logic goes that if you can get a pair of elite players from the same team (and line) that you can pile on the points in short order and decimate your pool without fear of your one elite player having his points matched by your opponent's elite player who is his linemate.

 

It definitely has merit. For instance, if you corner the market on Anze Kopitar and Marian Gaborik then it's only going to be a lesser forward like Dustin Brown (who might not even be owned in your points-only league) or a defenseman who will get points when those two score. Theoretically, every time you get a score here you actually get two points and none of your competitors get any.

 

The problem that I've always had is that if slumps happen then suddenly you've got not one but two players not producing. Or what about injuries? If Gaborik gets hurt (and it's a strong bet that he will) that also hurts Kopitar. So not only do you lose one star player but the other star becomes less productive.

 

I'm not going to argue totally for or against this approach though. For me, there’s a time and a place. What's more important is drafting for value. If I've already taken Kopitar and I reach a point in the draft where I've got a bunch of similar players to Gaborik both in upside and risk then I'll absolutely consider Gaborik to complete my tandem.

 

On the other hand, I'm not going to reach for Gaborik past more reliable options just to ensure I get my tandem. That would effectively diminish any value I hoped to add by owning a tandem.

 

Ruh roh, Beau Bennett is hurt again. He has got to be the most depressing kind of Band-Aid Boy, the one with huge potential (though a lot of that is merely because of the team he plays for) but can't even get his career off the ground because of injuries.

 

I think I wrote Bennett off a couple of years ago. He might breakout at some point and I'll congratulate my opponent for sticking with him this long but I won't be the one left squeezing the lemon.

 

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Our very own Darren Kennedy talks about the dependable Phil Kessel.

 

Interestingly, I rarely hear Kessel mentioned as a central building block you could have for five plus seasons. This, despite some truly gaudy numbers the past three years: six straight with more than 30 goals (yes, he would have made it in the lockout), three times a top 10 point producer, and a two-time 300 shot man.

 

Kessel could definitely stand to get more respect in the fantasy world. I think that people just don't see any upside beyond the 80-point level, which is what keeps us from getting excited. But while he might be vanilla, vanilla is still pretty damn sweet.

 

The thing I like most is that Kessel hasn't missed a game in four years. You can't put a price on that kind of peace of mind.

 

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TSN with a nice profile on one of my favourite goalie prospects (And yes, I realize I said that there’s no such thing as “goalie prospects” earlier. Sue me.) , Connor Hellbuyck, who is trying to make the Jets this year.

 

“As long as I’m improving every day I’m happy,” he said. “I don’t want to go out there and have a bad day and not take something from it.”

It’s something he says he’s learned from watching other goaltenders like veteran Tim Thomas, who started for the U.S. national team in Belarus. Hellebuyck was third on the depth chart and didn’t see any action as the U.S., like Canada, was eliminated in the quarter-finals.

“You’re always a student, til the day you retire.”

 

Boy do I ever love those quotes. Really promising talent. I'm not sure we see much of Hellebuyck this season as he's behind Michael Hutchinson in a race for the backup spot. Or at least he was coming into camp. Still, I think we can all agree that Ondrej Pavelec won't be the starter in Winnipeg long term. Hellebuyck could be the solution.

 

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The Coyotes made some cuts the other day. No real notable names.

 

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Interesting story: apparently some players pushed for the diving fines because coaches had been encouraging them to dive.

 

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It's against the Flames and it's preseason but the Sedins with some magic setting up a Radim Vrbata goal:

 

 

It's safe to say there's reason to be optimistic about these three combining to put up points this year. Here’s a totally unaggressive prediction: all three score over 60 points this season.

 

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You can follow me @SteveLaidlaw.

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