October 3, 2014

steve laidlaw

2014-10-03

New deals for Bobby Ryan and Brenden Dillon, training camp cuts, injury talk and more.

 

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Some important moves made by the Senators today signing Bobby Ryan to a seven-year extension worth $50.75 million.

 

I actually think that this is a bargain. If Ryan has a good season, say 30 goals and 60 points, I bet he signs for at least $8 million a year on the free agent market. With the way the cap is set to be heading upwards by leaps and bounds and the fact that 28-year-old stars simply don't hit unrestricted free agency any more, it was a lock someone would throw gobs of cash at him.

 

It's a good deal for Ryan too because he's no longer at the mercy of injury luck. Say he suffers some gruesome injury this season (knock on wood), then he hits free agency with a bunch of health questions and he's stuck playing the one-year "prove it" game. No thanks. And he's well compensated here, maybe costing himself $8 million over the length of the deal.

 

Now, I don't love Ryan in Ottawa from a fantasy perspective but it's worth noting that he scorched the Earth in the first half of last season scoring 36 points in 42 games before the hernia became an issue. There's no guarantee he can get to that level for a full 82 games but there should be optimism.

 

One thing that really concerns me about Ryan is that for whatever reason he hasn't been a strong power play producer in a long time. Last season he had just nine PPP, his fourth straight season of 10 or less. He was all too often not on the Senators' top power play unit, which was something that plagued his time in Anaheim.

 

You have to go back to Ryan's first couple of seasons in the league where he scored 23 and 21 PPP respectively for a time when he was a strong power play producer. You could of course spin that as a positive. Ryan's career high for points came in 2010-11, where he scored 71 points but just 10 on the power play.

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He recorded 60 even-strength points that season, which is a truly elite number. The only players to outscore him at even strength that season were Daniel Sedin, Corey Perry and Alexander Ovechkin – elite company to say the least.

 

I wouldn't say that Ryan is playing with enough talent in Ottawa to say that he can get back to 60 ES points but is 50 possible? Certainly. Add in 20 PPP and you've got a return to the 70-point mark. But that's my issue. He doesn't produce on the power play anymore.

 

50 ES points is a grand enough feat. Now he's got to leap back to the 20 PPP mark? Not saying he can't do it, but there are reasons why I pessimistically have him projected for 55 points and not more.

 

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The other Sens news was naming Erik Karlsson team captain. Not a surprise and not fantasy relevant but noteworthy, sure.

 

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The Arizona Coyotes made some huge cuts yesterday sending down seven players including Max Domi, Brandon Gormley, Lucas Lessio and Tobias Rieder.

 

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Domi's the big one since he had a shot at cracking a weak Coyotes top-six forwards and really add some scoring punch. He had a ton of Calder buzz but instead he's back to junior. I can't believe he didn't get at least nine games. Doesn't make sense to me.

 

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