Taking a look at the volatile nature of pre-season standings predictions.

 

 

Never take pre-season predictions seriously. No analyst has access to all the information they need, and even if they did make a perfectly accurate prediction, things change so quickly in the NHL. Injuries, front office moves, coaching decisions, and puck luck, can all make a solid prediction completely obsolete a few months later. Predictions are great for entertainment value, to help establish baseline expectations, and to understand why certain teams are viewed the way they are, but they aren’t to be taken too seriously.

 

This may seem obvious, but I only say this because of how upset I’ve seen people get about pre-season predictions over the years. I’ve seen complete meltdowns in the comments sections and/or forums because someone’s predictions didn’t match theirs, and I’ve seen people claim they were "swindled" when they purchased a book or magazine that got their favourite team wrong. I even had a Ducks fan comment on my every article last year to remind me of my blown prediction. Relax!

 

No one is going to get the standings right, and only the most fortunate will be more accurate than simply assuming last year’s results will repeat themselves. That’s true whether it’s a casual fan, a blogger, someone who uses hockey analytics, or a long-time member of the mainstream media with locker room access. That is, after all, why they play the games.

 

With that long caveat in mind, I’ve assembled the pre-season predictions of all the analysts I could find that posted complete, league-wide predictions on their websites. Ultimately, I got a good mix of magazines, mainstream experts, and bloggers across the league. I tried to find exactly 100, but wound up eight short. That flared up my OCD!

 

Organized and ranked by division, I’ve included the average prediction for each team, along with the most optimistic and pessimistic views, and who held them. I’ve also included some interesting notes about the predictions for most of the teams, and shared my own take for all of them.

 

Atlantic Division

 

1. Boston Bruins

 

Average prediction: 1.39

 

Optimistic view: Over 68% of analysts have Boston winning the division, the second greatest vote of confidence in the league (after Pittsburgh).

 

Pessimistic view: There are only seven analysts who have the Bruins as low as third, most prominently Sean Hartnett of CBS. The others were Dale Lamontagne, Ashley Sorgea, John Hoven, Dave Davis, Nick Mendola and the folks at Dece Sports.

 

Interesting Note: Pittsburgh and Chicago were the only other teams seen as more likely to finish in the top two.

 

Rob’s take: I like them for the division crown as well, unless something happens to Rask.

 

2. Tampa Bay Lightning

 

Average prediction: 1.98

 

Optimistic view: 27% of analysts have Tampa Bay winning the division.

 

Pessimistic view: There are actually two analysts who have the Bolts fourth, Shawn Wilken of Last Word on Sports, and Sports World’s Mike Smollins, and Matt Cane is the lone analyst ranking them fifth. 17% have them in third.

 

Interesting note: The predictions for Tampa Bay match St. Louis very closely.

 

Rob’s take: They have a fantastic upside, but I’m not as optimistic about such an unproven team. Count me among the 17% who rank them third.

 

3. Montreal Canadiens

 

Average prediction: 2.77

 

Optimistic view: Four analysts have the Habs winning the division, Davis, Sorgea, Brian Weidler, and Andreas Matsoukas, while 23% have them finishing as the runner-up.

 

Pessimistic view: There were only six analysts who have the Habs lower than third, including Brian Costello of the Hockey News, Ryan Wilson of Hockey Buzz, and Ted Starkey of SB Nation in fourth.

 

Interesting note: Pegging the Habs for third was the most common prediction that didn’t involve first or last, edging out Nashville’s sixth-place prediction.

 

Rob’s take: Again, I’m a little cooler on Montreal, who could easily slip into a fight for one of the final spots.

 

4. Detroit Red Wings

 

Average prediction: 4.49

 

Optimistic view: Six analysts have Detroit finishing third, including all of the previously mentioned pessimists (except Hartnett).

 

Pessimistic view: Ten analysts have the Wings finishing sixth, including Darryl Dobbs, and the Hockey Prospectus VUKOTA engine, and Weidler and Cane even have them as low as seventh.

 

Interesting note: There’s quite a big gap between the top three Atlantic teams and the Wings. There’s a similar situation in the Pacific.

 

Rob’s take: I’m probably the most optimistic analyst of the bunch. This is a solid playoff-bound team, especially if it stays healthy. Second place is actually a distinct possibility. These are the Red Wings, people!

 

5. Toronto Maple Leafs