Analytics Advantage: The NHL’s Changing Landscape Across Goal Scoring, Shots, and Efficiency

Stas Pupkov

2025-09-11

This week's edition zooms out from individual player trends to the league itself. Over more than a century of NHL history, the numbers tell a clear story: the game changes in eras, not in a straight line. Scoring booms, defensive clamps, rule resets, and modern surges all leave their fingerprints on league-wide rates.

The line charts below track goals, shots, shooting percentage, and special-teams efficiency from 1918 through 2025. The dotted lines mark a 2017–19 baseline—our recent "normal"—and the rolling averages smooth out the noise. What emerges is a timeline of distinct phases: the wide-open 1920s, the scoring explosion of the 1970s and 80s, the dead-puck years at the turn of the millennium, and today's uptick in offense and power-play success.

Not every metric has data all the way back to the league's first puck drop, but even with staggered records the same theme repeats: hockey has never been static. To understand today's fantasy and real-world environment, it helps to see how the foundation has shifted across eras.

League Goals per Game

The peaks and valleys of league scoring tell you right away that eras matter. At its most extreme, the NHL averaged 9.58 goals per game in 1920. Less than a decade later, that number bottomed out at 2.92 in 1929. From there the trend stabilizes, only to surge again during the expansion era and explode through the 1970s and 80s. By the late 90s, the dead-puck era dragged offense back toward today's levels, and while scoring has risen in recent years, it hasn't reached those mid-80s highs.

What's interesting is how scoring has gone back up. It isn't because teams are firing significantly more pucks because shots on goal are actually down compared to earlier decades. The driver is efficiency. League shooting percentage has climbed back toward 10%, after living in the single digits for much of the dead-puck stretch. The rise is statistically significant, and it lines up with what we also see on special teams. Power-play percentage has steadily increased since 2000, while penalty-kill efficiency has moved in the opposite direction.

Put together, the picture is clear: modern scoring isn't volume-driven, it's quality-driven. Teams are converting a higher share of their chances, and the power play environment is more favorable than it's been in decades.

Rush Attempts per Game

Since 2016–17, one of the clearest changes has been in pace. Rush attempts per game have surged, especially in the last three seasons. That spike is evidence of a faster game built around transition and quick-strike offense, rather than static zone play.

The rise in rushes pairs with more rebounds and higher expected goals across the board, low, medium, and high-danger chances are all trending up. In other words, today's NHL is tilted toward quality looks, not sheer volume.

That helps explain why scoring has gone up even as overall shot totals have dipped. Teams are generating more dangerous chances off the rush, finishing at higher percentages, and capitalizing on power plays at a rate the league hasn't seen in decades.

What This Means for Fantasy

For fantasy managers, league-wide trends set the backdrop for every roster decision. With goals and power-play production climbing, point totals are easier to find than they were a decade ago, which boosts the value of secondary scorers and PP2 defensemen. The uptick in rush chances makes speed and transition play more rewarding, while a steady stream of rebounds and high-danger looks favor efficient finishers.

The real edge comes from finding players who add layers on top of scoring. Skaters who chip in with hits, blocks, or consistent special-teams usage stand out when offense is plentiful. In today's environment, managers who balance raw production with multi-category depth will stay ahead of the curve.

Data from Hockey Reference, Natural Stat Trick, Quant Hockey

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