October 14, 2014

steve laidlaw

2014-10-14

Fantasy hockey ramblings recapping last night's games including Victor Hedman's breakout game…

 

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Exciting end to the Bruins-Avalanche matinee as Daniel Briere broke a tie game with 0.3 seconds left in regulation. Here's a quirky stat, the Bruins haven't beaten the Avalanche in Boston since 1998. The streak continues.

 

You might be tempted to get after Briere following this goal and with the fact he's skating with Nathan MacKinnon and Alex Tanguay as his wingers. Don't give in. Briere might still have the mitts in close but he is a shadow of his former self. Trading PA Parenteau for him was a bad move by the Avalanche.

 

I actually hated most all of the Avalanche's lineup configurations. Skating MacKinnon with the two geriatrics seems like a waste of MacKinnon. They are going to see tons of easy offensive zone starts, making things less burdensome for all parties.

 

The Gabriel Landeskog – Ryan O'Reilly – Dennis Everberg line looks like a really solid shutdown/possession line. Not sure where the scoring is coming from though. Looks like 50-point seasons for Landeskog and O'Reilly to me.

 

Jamie McGinnMatt DucheneJarome Iginla just hasn't clicked yet. It's like McGinn and Duchene are playing one speed and Iginla is playing another. Iginla would work better on a line with Landeskog and O'Reilly. He'd answer the question to where the scoring is coming from too. That would be a mean possession line. But it would leave Everberg without a good fit in the lineup.

 

Everberg doesn't overly excite me though so I'm fine leaving him out of the rotation. Maybe that's exactly what happens when John Mitchell returns. It's possible we haven't seen the most optimal Avalanche lineup yet. That's a problem, to be sure but not one that can't be solved.

 

And it's interesting that I had the line arrangements as much as I did considering how strong a game the Avalanche played, at least through two periods anyhow. They won the possession battle against a ferocious possession team like Bruins. Impressive stuff. They actually won the shot battle by a small margin.

 

It did fall apart in the third where they were heavily outplayed by the Bruins. Still, the Avalanche had a goal disallowed and then the late Briere marker so it's tough to argue they didn't deserve their win. I would just have preferred to see a full 60-minute effort from them.

 

Final Avalanche thought, you know this but I'll remind you, Tyson Barrie is awesome. I love his instincts regarding when to pinch and when not to pinch. Such an aggressive player. One pinch led directly to the first goal of the game for the Avalanche and a primary assist for Barrie. He'd have had another assist on the disallowed Avalanche goal had it not been ruled to be deflected by a high stick.

 

The only quibble to make on Barrie is that he's currently skating with the second power play unit. One that features the same Briere and Tanguay that I lamented above. Erik Johnson is getting the top unit duties. He's scoreless through three games and is forgettable enough that you could easily swoop in with a buy low offer.

 

I guess that was two final thoughts on the Avs. Sue me.

 

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The Bruins are clearly still finding themselves as their stretches of dominant play haven't been sustained the way they would have been last season. Part of that is injuries.

 

David Krejci made his return to the lineup but didn't look completely up to speed. He was back with Milan Lucic and they had Seth Griffith as their RW. You can bet they were looking over at Iginla on the other bench, wishing he was still in the lineup. That was a perfect fit. We'll see if Griffith sticks.

 

Griffith didn't look to have great chemistry with Krejci or Lucic, often zigging when they were zagging. You can't expect that to form overnight. I'm eager to see what shakes out. Griffith did show some flashes of skill and his numbers at lower levels have always been impressive. Check out DobberProspects for more on Griffith.

 

Another guy who scored in this game but frustrated me was Loui Eriksson. I shouldn't be too frustrated but as an owner of Carl Soderberg it was frustrating to see him muff a couple of setups from Soderberg early on. He finally finished one on the power play for the lone Bruins goal.

 

 

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William Karlsson scored the first two goals of his NHL career. He's an intriguing guy but I'm not over the moon for him for fantasy purposes. He is a second power play unit guy so there is some upside. I'm just not that interested in him beyond the long term.

 

The Ducks top power play unit clicked again for a goal from Corey Perry who already has four this season. The key note here is Sami Vatanen notching another power-play assist. Super high on this kid.

 

Patrick Maroon also recorded a power play assist and had three points on the year looking like a guy who could really take advantage of his great opportunity skating with the big guns. Then Josh Gorges went low and wrecked his knee. No word on the severity but it didn't look good. All we know for certain is that Maroon won't play tonight.

 

That makes two top line candidates down after Dany Heatley's corpse was felled by a groin injury. Next up was Matt Beleskey who scored a goal but we will see if he is a fit there beyond this game. Beleskey has played up on this line before.

 

I know a lot of people really want to see Devante Smith-Pelley on the top line after an impressive run there during the playoffs. It might happen but be careful what you wish for. I'm starting to think that the lineup spot alongside Perry and Getzlaf might be cursed after Teemu Selanne blasted Ducks coach Bruce Boudreau for not giving him enough playing time. Presumably a spot alongside the big guns would have gone a long way to mending fences. I'm kidding with this curse stuff but if you've got any superstitious bones in your body, it's time to get on board with this one!

 

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Victor Hedman, if you aren't in on him now, it's too late. Check out this dime of a pass at the (39 second mark) to a streaking Steven Stamkos:

 

 

That was Hedman's sixth point of the season after having scored two points earlier in the game. The sky is the limit for these two.

 

That was Stamkos' second goal of the game (and season). His first came on the power play, the first Lightning power play I've seen so far this season that had him stationed in his office in the left slot. No surprise that change was what got the lid off for him. But I probably shouldn't obsess over his placement on the power play as a rocket from the right side on a later power play also resulted in a goal for his hat-trick. Oh yeah, Hedman got the assist.

 

So far it's Valtteri Filppula who has benefitted the most from Stamkos and Hedman going nutty early on. Remember though, Ondrej Palat and Ryan Callahan are also on the Lightning top power play so they've got potentially to get in on the gold rush as well.

 

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I'll be interested to see how everything shakes out when Jonathan Drouin makes his debut. Word is that he is close with Saturday as a likely debut. Callahan and Palat have also been frequent linemates of Stamkos' at even strength. We'll see if he can bump one of those guys of the top line or top power play unit. Stay tuned.

 

Lost in Hedman's coronation was Nikita Kucherov and Vladislav Namestnikov each contributing two points. For Namestnikov those were the first two points of his career. This team is stupid deep, which is why I don't really love either guy for fantasy purposes.

 

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The Canadiens are 4/4 this season with slow starts. They went down 2-1 early with another awful first period. Things didn't get any better as the Lightning jumped on them for two more in the second.

 

Poor Carey Price, he never really had a chance. He hasn't had a "quality" start yet the season. Decent buy low opportunity though I don't think there are any Price owners whose confidence is that shaken.

 

Price was yanked after two once the route was clearly on. Dustin Tokarski came on to get ravaged for three more in the third. Lots of revenge games early in the season.

 

One lineup change worth monitoring was PA Parenteau and Brendan Gallagher swapping spots on the top two lines both at evens and with the man advantage. I hated the swap and it didn't look great. Gallagher did score his first goal of the season though so maybe this was about spreading around the offense.

 

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Embarrassing attendance at the Panthers-Senators game. Seriously, check out this picture. Florida fans are notorious for showing up late. Even the Miami Heat at the height of the Lebron James era struggled to get fans to the arena on time. But it's not like people stumbled in to this one late. They just didn't show at all. I wouldn't pay money to watch either but I know some people in some desperate markets who would. Time to make a move.

 

What's really sad is the Panthers played a good game!

 

They controlled a good portion of the play outshooting the Senators 30-23 but once again, their inability to finish was their undoing.

 

I really liked what I saw from the Jussi JokinenAleksander BarkovJonathan Huberdeau line. They were dangerous generating many chances. No real finishers on that line though.

 

You've got to credit Craig Anderson for posting the 30-save shutout. The Senators didn't play particularly well and certainly owe Anderson for the victory.

Roberto Luongo was pretty strong in this one as well, which is a good sign for those of us who invested in him counting on some decent peripherals in spite of his poor surroundings.

 

The lone Senators goal was the usual suspects getting to work with Clarke MacArthur scoring off assists from Kyle Turris and Erik Karlsson.

 

I was very disappointed to see Curtis Lazar was absent from the Senators' lineup. I couldn't dig up why he was scratched. Too bad, I love his game, even if it necessarily fantasy worthy yet.

 

I wish I had more to say about this game but I was more or less glued to the show Hedman was putting on in Tampa Bay. There also simply aren't that many fantasy notable players on either team.

 

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I completed a fairly big trade in one of my dynasty leagues last night moving Patric Hornqvist, James Wisniewski and a late pick for Subban and a couple of mid-round picks. It's a full-keeper with multi-cat scoring but no hits or blocks and it's deep so whatever waiver wire replacements I make are bound to stink.

 

I probably lose this deal now but this is a team I took over that wasn't in great shape anyhow. And this was an opportunity to sell high on Hornqvist after his blazing start and Wisniewski after his great year last year. Wis just isn't a guy I want in fantasy leagues because of his injuries. Hornqvist could score 80 this year. I wouldn't be shocked but it's still unlikely so to me, nabbing Subban as the best player in the deal makes sense. Everything else in the deal (the picks) are just window dressing, stuff I can use in other deals so I don't mind getting the better end of them but they weren't make or break for me.

 

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Alright, who chipped the marble? Vinny Lecavalier's statue will miss two weeks after getting struck by a shot from Mark Streit. Good excuse to drop a guy you probably shouldn't have owned anyway (hot start aside).

 

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Some positive news out of Carolina, Eric Staal will miss tonight's game but it isn't a concussion.

 

Also in that report, Jeff Skinner skated by himself and is reportedly nearing a return. Of course, they also just placed him on IR retroactive October 5th. You think my league will let me place him on IR retroactive that date and plug in Brock Nelson to replace those games I missed? No, it doesn't work that way? Oh, well then please excuse me while a raise two fingers to the Hurricanes front office.

 

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I was saying it all last week in the forum and in the ramblings to not draw too many conclusions from the first week. I was bullish on good situations that I think continue (like Vatanen above or Brock Nelson on the top PP unit for the Islanders) and bearish on bad situations that I think will continue (like Eriksson above or Varlamov regressing this season). I think there are some conclusions to be drawn early but for the most part it's best not to overreact. That's the theme of Sean McIndoe's latest piece for Grantland.

 

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The Wild extended Jonas Brodin with a six-year $25 million deal. Teams are really finding value in extending their high upside young defensemen to contracts in and around that $4 million annually range. Look at the value that Tampa Bay is getting from Hedman! Similar contracts have been given out to the likes of Roman Josi, Cam Fowler and many others. They all look good.

 

It's a smart bet too. Sure, these teams could probably get bridge deals closer to the $2.6 million that Barrie got this summer and they'd save some money short term at that price but if you figure the value of any free agent defenseman of any merit is in that $3.5-4.5 million range then all your defenseman has to do is play to the level of a Matt Greene or Willie Mitchell. That's a high level as these are Cup champions but their upside is limited. So there is plenty of room for these young defensemen to outplay their contract. It's a smart bet being made by NHL franchises.

 

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Ville Leino is off to the KHL. In case you were still hanging onto the dream…

 

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Happy belated Columbus Day to our friends to the south:

 

 

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You can follow me @SteveLaidlaw.

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JACKSON LACOMBE ANA
LANE HUTSON MTL
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JONATHAN HUBERDEAU CGY

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MACKENZIE BLACKWOOD COL
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