October 16, 2014

steve laidlaw

2014-10-16

Fantasy Hockey Ramblings. What to expect from TJ Brodie, Andrew Shaw, Brad Richards, Mikkel Boedker, Simon Gagne and more…

 

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There is quite the goalie battle taking place in Calgary right now. Karri Ramo is 2-0 having given up just two goals in each of his outings. Now Jonas Hiller has responded with a huge 49-save effort stealing a win from the Chicago Blackhawks.

 

Seriously, the Blackhawks owned the Flames in this one but Hiller was magnificent. Not that he made many outrageous saves, he just chewed up a ton of rubber.

 

You can probably blame the Blackhawks for their own ineptitude as well. They went 0/6 on the power play to open the game before finally getting one on their seventh man-advantage just to force overtime. Obviously they aren't worried about this loss. Those are the breaks sometimes.

 

Back to Calgary. TJ Brodie is garnering a ton of attention right now. He notched an assist (his fifth point through five games) on Mikael Backlund's overtime winner and has looked solid. Brodie is also skating huge minutes alongside Mark Giordano, which is positive.

 

I'm not sold yet. I don't know that there's room on this team for more than one big scorer on the blueline and my top candidate would be the aforementioned Giordano. I also like Dennis Wideman ahead of Brodie though it's Brodie on the top power play unit right now, not Wideman.

 

Wideman, by the way, scored his first goal of the season last night.

 

Anyways, we'll see how strong an offense that Calgary can boast. They currently sit 20th at 2.40 goals per game. It's too early to draw conclusions but that ranking is in line with where they were last season (23rd and 2.46). That suggests Brodie has been fairly fortunate to have five points to his name thus far.

 

It is worth mentioning that Nashville managed two 40-point defensemen (Shea Weber and Roman Josi) last season while ranking not much higher than Calgary in goals per game. The Predators had a much better power play though, so that's something worth monitoring in Calgary. They currently sit middle of the pack at 18.8% efficiency.

 

If Giordano can do his best impersonation of Weber, I could see Brodie reaching 40 but it's likely Giordano and Brodie come up short here. I'm putting Brodie down for 35 after this early start.

 

Another guy off to a hot start is Joe Colborne with five assists in five games. Sorry, I'm not buying it. He's skating predominantly with Johnny Gaudreau and Mason Raymond and seeing second unit power play time. That's just not the type of opportunity where a guy maintains a good scoring pace. It wouldn't shock me at all if we didn't see him score again for a month.

 

And that's not me saying he's playing poorly – he's playing well! – I just know better than to trust small sample sizes from guys who aren't playing top line/top power play minutes.

 

By the way, Gaudreau is still scoreless but he had some dangerous flourishes in this one. He probably won't bust out this year but you can see the potential.

 

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Chicago is a pretty boring team to cover for fantasy purposes. We already know what to expect from their well-established stars.

 

The lone player who might overachieve for this team is Andrew Shaw. He scored his second of the season with a tip on the power play. He's got three points through three games. He caps out at six points but there's no reason he can't do a facsimile of Wayne Simmonds as the net-front presence for Chicago. He is skating on the second line and top power play unit on this loaded team. That makes 30 goals and 60 points a legitimate possibility though I'd put Shaw closer to 25 and 50.

 

The other guy to note is Brad Richards skating on the third line and second power play unit. Shaw has grabbed the opening that I'd pencilled Richards in for before the season. This is looking more like a 30-40 point year.

 

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I didn't catch the Wings-Bruins contest last night but it sure looks like the Bruins put the boots to the Wings. They won the shot battle 39-20 but were forced to win it in the skills competition.

 

Another disappointing game for Tuukka Rask despite the win. He only made 18 saves on 20 shots in this one. Not that you'd necessarily be able to buy low but if you can give it a try.

 

David Krejci notched his first point of the season but he is still looking for a strong fit on his right wing, with Milan Lucic a mainstay on the left.

 

Simon Gagne did get a few shifts on the top line in the third period but spent the majority of his shifts on the fourth. I have a tough time seeing Gagne as a top line option but I'll wait to bury him until I see a game or two from him.

 

Of the in-house options for the Bruins, Matt Fraser seems like the best fit with Krejci and Lucic. That assumes that the Bruins won't try Carl Soderberg or Loui Eriksson up there. I'd applaud either choice but I don't see either sticking long term. The Bruins love their depth.

 

I wonder if the ultimate solution isn't located on another roster somewhere. Just spit-balling but Chris Stewart is an upcoming UFA and would make a nice fit if they can buy him from the Sabres for draft picks. Heck, they could probably get them to eat a little salary.

 

Other upcoming UFA options that make sense to me:

 

Drew Stafford

Michael Ryder (if the Devils are out of it)

Scottie Upshall

Curtis Glencross

 

If you see any of those names shipped to Boston, get ready to pounce.

 

Both Torey Krug and Zdeno Chara are scoreless through their first five games. Buy low. I expect both will clear 40 once again this season. Krug, in particular, seems like a guy who people would be quick to distrust, simply because we don't have much history with him so he makes a logical target

 

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Nice game from Jimmy Howard stopping 37 of 39 shots. He has been solid early on.

Gustav Nyquist appears immune to regression, picking up where he left off last season having scored a goal in all three games this season. That's a small sample size though. I still think he gets nipped by the sophomore slump.

 

Word on the street is that the Red Wings are shopping Jakub Kindl around. They might have to wait a while to get a deal done as Kindl left this one early after being driven into the boards. No update on his condition.

 

Only one point in three games for Henrik Zetterberg. I'm not concerned. He's a beauty.

 

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Uh, Oilers. What a horrible team.

 

Viktor Fasth was placed on the IR yesterday after yanking himself from the game against the Kings on Tuesday night. At first I thought it was self-preservation because the Oilers were getting smoked but it turns out he was hurt. This is becoming habitual for him and might prevent him from ever gaining traction as a #1 in this league. He's already 32 so it's not like he has much time here.

 

Ben Scrivens will take over and Richard Bachman is in as the backup. You don't want to own either if you can help it. The Oilers are like my grandpappy's lucky socks, they're full of holes and they stink.

 

Scrivens was horrible last night, but really so was the rest of the team. It doesn't help that Ryan Nugent-Hopkins was absent once again but that would only serve to patch one hole when what's left of the cloth should probably just be tossed away.

 

Why don't they have relegation in the NHL like they have in European soccer? The Oilers should be competing in a different division. Where's Wayne Gretzky when you need him? This is a Mickey Mouse franchise.

 

Want more? Okay, the Oilers gave up goals to Kyle Chipchura, who I wasn't even aware was even still in the league (kidding, I was aware though that might be worse), and Martin Erat who has been as useful as tumbleweed since arriving in the desert.

 

The Oilers did show a couple of flashes, mainly just Taylor Hall looking good. He had three points in this one. We need to start a #FreeHall kick-starter. He's wasting away the best years of his career.

 

Darnell Nurse skated in his second career game and I've already seen enough. He wasn't terrible, at least in the context that the whole team was terrible but I just don't see any point in keeping him around. He'd probably be getting better coaching back in the OHL.

 

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Okay, enough venting. Let's talk about something you can use, like the Coyotes' impressive top line, which combined for seven points last night.

 

Mikkel Boedker notched the least impressive hat-trick I've ever seen but is still looking like he might be a breakout star. I don't think we should read too much into his scoring from this game as one goal came on a breakaway where the defense completely ignored him, the next should probably have been awarded to Scrivens for essentially scoring on himself and the third came on the empty net. But hey, you make your own luck, right?

 

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Props to Yandle for the wicked stretch pass.

 

The other two members of the top line (Shane Doan and Antoine Vermette) look solid as well. If you are going to own a Coyote forward it should be one of those three (and maybe Martin Hanzal in hits leagues). Doan should bounce back after struggling with Rocky Mountain Fever last season and Vermette might even improve on last season's 50 points.

 

Boedker, by the way, looks like a nice candidate for 25 goals and 55 points, which would no doubt lead the team.

 

Sam Gagner didn't do much of anything in his revenge game but I honestly wouldn't expect much from him at all this season. He's currently skating with David Moss and Lauri Korpikoski on a low-scoring team. Plus, I think we've discovered that he's just not that good. And yes, I do remember Gagner scored eight points in one game. He also scored just 47 points that season, which is probably more instructive.

 

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Kings defenseman Jake Muzzin is the latest to join the $4 million defenseman club signing an extension for five more years yesterday. This just days after Jonas Brodin signed a six-year extension for a similar annual salary with the Wild.

 

It's not surprising to see these smart teams getting cheap extensions done with their good young defensemen. These guys are some of the best bets in the game. The worst of these sorts of extensions that I can think of is Tyler Myers' big money deal with Buffalo but that can be explained away for a few reasons:

 

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JACKSON LACOMBE ANA
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LINE COMBOS

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