October 28, 2014

steve laidlaw

2014-10-28

Recapping last night's games including the Rangers' huge comeback and more…

What an awesome comeback by the Rangers against the Wild last night. After getting thoroughly dominated by the Wild for two periods spending much of them on the power play thanks to brutal penalties from Chris Kreider and John Moore who were both issued match penalties the Rangers were down 3-0 heading into the final 20.

You simply do not spot the Wild a 3-0 lead and expect to come back. This was a team that had given up only six goals all season before last night. They gave up five in one brutal meltdown.

Let's credit Rick Nash and Mats Zuccarello for sparking the Ranger comeback. Nash and Zuccarello assisted on the first Ranger goal and then Nash followed that up with one of his own. Zuccarello added another assist before scoring the game winner.

For Nash this is merely a continuation of what's been a great start to the season. He is tied for the goal-scoring lead with nine in nine games. Obviously he won't maintain this pace but he should reach 40 goals with this hot start. I'd be looking to sell high but the question is, who are you going to get? Not too many slumping stars early on.

Anze Kopitar is a notable one but I'm not convinced that Kopitar would really be an upgrade. Alexander Ovechkin has "only" five goals and six points through eight games. I doubt you get any wiggle room there but you'd be amazed.

Zuccarello was a guy you'd want to be trying to buy low on (though obviously not with Nash) but he just quadrupled his season scoring and reminded his owners why he was so valuable as a depth scorer. Zuccarello is being deployed as a top-six forward and is seeing frequent (though not constant) top unit power play time.

It should be noted that Zuccarello was not on the top power play unit on the lone power play opportunity the Rangers had but with Chris Mueller and Dan Girardi seeing time on the "top unit" it's certainly questionable, what the best power play group is for the Rangers. I'd just as soon call the group with Ryan McDonagh, Zuccarello and Derick Brassard on it the top unit but maybe that's just me.

It is disconcerting seeing McDonagh not on the top power play unit. He is skating huge minutes for the Rangers, currently ranked ninth in the league in time on ice at 25:25 per game. Of the skaters (they are all defensemen) skating over 25 minutes per game only McDonagh and Alex Pietrangelo spend less than three minutes per game on the power play. McDonagh is close at 2:49 per game and has frequently been skating on the top power play unit but it hasn't been the no-brainer that it should be and since he's got just three assists through nine games there is reason for concern. This was supposed to be the year he jumped over 50 points.

The good news on that front is McDonagh has yet to score a goal but his shot rate remains high. With 22 SOG so far McDonagh is on pace for his first career 200 shot season. This is a defenseman who scored 14 goals last season so he doesn't necessarily rely just on assists. Now he scored 14 goals on 7.9% shooting, which is too high for a defenseman but he can get to 10 goals simply by maintaining this rate of shots. If you do the math 10 goals on 200 shots is 5% shooting, which is plenty reasonable.

Anyways, we need to wait and see how everything looks when Derek Stepan returns but I'd be gearing up for another 40-45-point season from McDonagh and since that's the case maybe look at this early lack of power play time as a great opportunity to buy low.

Anthony Duclair scored his first NHL goal and has five points through seven games. It sure feels like he belongs in the NHL but the Rangers have said that if he proves to be one of the top nine forwards that he'll stick with the big club. That sounds great until you start to do the math. Nash, Martin St. Louis, Kreider, Zuccarello, Carl Hagelin, and Lee Stempniak are all top-nine wingers with Brassard, Stepan and Dominic Moore the centermen.

You can make an argument for Duclair over a couple of those guys but Moore is a centerman and Duclair isn't playing up the middle and Stempniak is a proven veteran who plays multiple roles. I don't see where Duclair fits if he has to be a "top-nine" forward. Why the Rangers couldn't keep him in a fourth line role is beyond me. They could totally skate him 10 minutes a night on the fourth line, have him jump up when necessary and give him some power play minutes. And then he's there in case of an injury.

Some injury news to report on for Minnesota. Jonas Brodin was the one rocked from behind by Kreider but he returned to skate over 22 minutes. Erik Haula was the recipient of the elbow from Moore and he did not return. Concussion is likely here. Haula isn't really notable for fantasy right now but you hate to see that all the same.

The Wild power play is a serious problem. They spent 14 minutes with the man advantage in this one but failed to score. They still haven't gotten a goal on the power play this season, 0/24 so far. Obviously they won't remain O-fer but there's a solid chance that they stink this season.

The counter point is that the Wild were right around league-average on the power play last season, ranking 16^th at 17.9%, a perfectly respectable total. If you are going to try to jump on any Wild slumpers it's optimism about the power play progressing.

Your top targets would have to be Mikko Koivu and Thomas Vanek. It's no surprise that these two have been each other's top linemate this season and are appearing together on the dreadful top power play unit.

It's worth mentioning that Vanek does have four assists through seven games so he hasn't been completely hopeless and as one of the streakiest players in the league it wouldn't take long for him to get it going. I think he's a safe bet for over 60 points once again so if you can buy low, do it.

I'd be more concerned about Koivu. He hasn't lost his top unit power play time but I have to question why not. Mikael Granlund is on the roster and is definitely a more creative (though less physical) player. Presumably this is because they are allowing Jason Pominville to be the main distributor of the puck but I'm not a huge fan of that.

Anyhow, Koivu has been a sneaky good producer in fantasy leagues for years. Not just because he was producing at a 60-point pace year after year but because he could contribute positively in peripheral categories like shots on goal, hits and even PIM while not being the drag on plus/minus some top players on non-glamour teams are. Injuries are taking their toll though. Koivu did skate every game in the lockout season but has still missed 55 games in the past four seasons.

I think that with a reduced role and with injuries more of a factor I think we start looking for less from Koivu. This isn't like a Mike Richards situation where the Monstars have drained his powers into a magical hockey puck. Koivu still has something to offer, just treat him like a 50-point guy instead of a 60-point one.

One guy who is rolling hot for the Wild is Jason Zucker who has five goals – REGRESSION! – already having scored on half of his shots. I can't scream regression fast enough here and I actually really like Zucker as a player, he just isn't being used in a manner conducive to continued scoring. Third line minutes with limited to no power play time will not get you more than 40 points and even that is a reach.

You could definitely turn sour on Darcy Kuemper for this result. I totally get it. Five goals on 12 third period shots is not the way you want to lose when it was looking like a really good chance you'd score ANOTHER shutout from the young starter. This stuff happens. Niklas Backstrom will go tonight for Minnesota but that's a scheduled start, Kuemper is still their guy and I have nothing but confidence in his abilities.

If you are looking for an alternate excuse for the Wild running out of gas, maybe they are all just sick? Apparently a bad cold has been circulating the Blues and Wild dressing rooms since making trips through Anaheim and LA.

Alex Galchenyuk was minus-three in this contest but I don't think that accurately reflects his performance. Galchenyuk was awesome for Montreal generating a number of chances and extending offensive zone time with his physical work along the wall. Give him a hard-earned four SOG and three hits.

We haven't heard from Galchenyuk's linemate PA Parenteau in sometime. He's gone four straight without a point. It's not necessarily time to panic but I was psyched about Parenteau moving to Montreal for his chance to skate with Max Pacioretty and David Desharnais. That hasn't happened for a couple of weeks, which pushes him from "threat for 60" to "lucky if he gets 50". It's literally a 15-20-point swing, which IS panic inducing.

Of course, Brendan Gallagher hasn't scored in four games either so perhaps a shakeup is on the way. I can see this being a fluid situation as the season goes on so you'll want to stay current on whose up with the top dogs.

Nathan Beaulieu was recalled and got back into the lineup. He only skated 11:53 with 1:26 on the power play. That limited power play time gives him some value in really deep leagues but for the majority of pools he's either waiver fodder are best kept on the farm team as long as possible. We'll be waiting for Andrei Markov to retire or for his knees to finally disintegrate before we see Beaulieu really gain fantasy value.

Dustin Tokarski got the start and really didn't see enough action to pass judgement. We know by now what he is though – a very capable backup skating behind an elite starter. If there's an injury to Carey Price you should be leaping to the waiver wire for Tokarski, otherwise, he can remain there in most leagues.

John Scott has been suspended two games for his actions against the Ducks on Sunday. You'll have to look elsewhere for your PIM this week.

Ben Lovejoy broke his finger on Joe Pavelski's head in a fight on Sunday and will miss 6-8 weeks. He's not necessarily fantasy worthy unless you are playing in deep leagues with hits and blocked shots. I suppose he was also a candidate for the prestigious Jeff Schultz Memorial Trophy handed out to the defenseman with an astronomically high plus/minus who wouldn't otherwise be valuable in fantasy leagues. Of course, at just plus-two he was falling behind and there are some more intriguing options on his own team like Hampus Lindholm.

This trophy got some buzz when I brought it up last week while discussing Anton Stralman. I take this award very seriously so I figure why not run down this season's early candidates. With Monday nights being so light we might even make this a weekly feature, who knows!

Anton Stralman – plus-nine

Stralman is the early leader and there is definite reason to think that he might play his way out of eligibility for this trophy. He already has seven points through nine games, which has made him an awesome fantasy asset so far. He'll continue to replace the injured Victor Hedman on the Lightning top power play and will pair with Hedman upon the big man's return. There is a solid chance Stralman tops 30 points, which would kill his eligibility but we don't know if he'll sustain his scoring when Hedman returns.

Marco Scandella – plus-seven

Lots of love for the Wild early on as they have shredded opponents at even strength with four goals to every one against. That's going to create a bunch of healthy "Schultz" candidates and Scandella, an impressive young defensive defenseman, is among them.

Jonas Brodin – plus-seven

Scandella is nice but Brodin is my top candidate in Minnesota. For one, he does more heavy lifting than Scandella with nearly two more minutes of even-strength ice time per game. He also sees more power play time, which can only hurt his candidacy because of short-handed-goals conceded hurting his plus/minus and points in general being a negative for candidacy.

Hampus Lindholm – plus-seven

Lindholm was a major player for this award last season but came up short and was ultimately disqualified for hitting the 30-point plateau. He's definitely a risk to lose eligibility again but with Sami Vatanen and Cam Fowler ahead of him on the depth chart for pure scoring Lindholm may yet qualify in his sophomore season.

Marc-Edouard Vlasic – plus-six

Last year's co-champion is looking good for a repeat performance. While Vlasic does not have the early lead we know that he is money in this category and poses almost no risk for disqualification having cleared 30 points just once in his eight-year career. It also helps that his co-champion, Johnny Boychuk, has emerged as a top option for the Islanders and is almost assured of maintaining his fantasy relevance.

Andy Greene – plus-six

Admittedly, Greene isn't that strong of an option. The Devils just don't appear to be that dominant of a team. They have always played a strong possession game though and Greene is a big part of that. Strange things happen, which is what this award is about. It wouldn't surprise if Greene walked away with a massive plus/minus total as the Devils make their return to the playoffs. And with Eric Gelinas, Damon Severson and Marek Zidlicky ahead of him on the depth chart there is little risk of Greene reaching 30 points even if he has done so as recently as last season.

Nate Schmidt – plus-six

Schmidt's candidacy is precarious at best as he is far from assured a spot in the Capitals lineup on a nightly basis skating just over 14 minutes a night. He's done well with those limited minutes but I have little faith in Schmidt maintaining a lineup spot let alone the luck necessary to put up huge plus/minus numbers. The Capitals are an improved team under Barry Trotz but he's not a miracle worker *looks at Chris Mason's career earnings* Okay, maybe Trotz is a miracle worker but he can't just turn this Washington team with Ovechkin as captain into a defensive powerhouse *looks at Ovechkin's shot-block totals* Okay fine, if Trotz can get this guy blocking shots, I'll believe anything.

Some Blue Jackets news to discuss. Matt Calvert was put on injured reserve with an undisclosed upper-body injury – I'm going with head lice, sorry Calvert – causing the team to quickly recall Alexander Wennberg. I think we've figured out that Wennberg isn't going to have much of an impact this season but there's promise for the future.

Meanwhile, Ryan Murray has been activated from IR. We'll see what the ripple effect is for the Jackets blue line. Right now David Savard and Tim Erixon are seeing a ton of power play time and so are Jacket regulars Jack Johnson and James Wisniewski. I think Murray bumps Erixon from the lineup and snatches his second unit duties.

Murray will also give the Jackets an excuse to skate Johnson less, which is a win for Sergei Bobrovsky.

Martin Havlat has been placed on IR. Surprise, surprise.

Eric Staal is a go tonight for the Hurricanes as they vie for their first win of the season. Get out your "buy low" offers on Staal and Alexander Semin. The time to strike is now, unless they don't score tonight, in which case you'll have until the weekend when they play on Saturday and Sunday to get your pitches in.

Duclair's first is a huge one for the Rangers:

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