November 09, 2014

Dobber

2014-11-09

How horrible is Fleischmann? How awesome is Johnson? My rookie mistake, Kopitar wakes up, and more …

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You got me for the first of what will be a run of five ramblings in seven days. Lucky…you?

Yes, Scottie Upshall led the Panthers in scoring for most of last year (not saying much though), and ended up finishing second. But he’s the type of player who will do so only if his team is slim in terms of other options. Now that they have the likes of Jokinen and Pirri and others, Upshall is back to being a 30-point player. He scored twice Saturday.

Tomas Fleischmann has 29 points in his last 92 games. How horrible is that? After four consecutive seasons of 0.69 points-per-game or higher (57 points), he gives us this crap. And it’s not luck either. I usually start looking through the PDO and On-Ice SH% stats around this time, and Fleischmann’s numbers there are just fine – meaning his production is about where it should be based on league averages. A trade to a new team is the only thing that can save him, but looking at the stats I think the term “save” would only mean 45 points (or that pace pro-rated over 82 games). Nowhere near what we expect of him.

A Crosby, Malkin or Tavares would save him. Maybe MacKinnon. But otherwise, Flash is fantasy useless. And I wouldn’t hold my breath on a trade because it’s probably not happening until the deadline – and even then it may not happen because he’s really playing terrible. Who would want him?

Tyler Johnson has 17 points this season. Already. And 16 of them in the last 11 games. He’s still beating Stamkos in the scoring race after 14 games. So we should be taking bets – can he hold off Stamkos until the 25-game mark? Or 20? Or 15? Man, I gotta get the polls functionality back on this site. When I upgraded, I lost it. I’ll get that back on.

So I did a Rookie 101 mistake yesterday. I played the Draft Kings contest yesterday, still working through my $10 that I put in there a few weeks ago. And I did everything right – loaded up on Penguins, since they played the Sabres, grabbed the red-hot Tarasenko and his very cheap linemate Lehtera. But then blew it in net. I had Fleury in place after consulting Goalie Post to decide who to start – I then was tiny bit over budget and decided to cut back on the goalie spending to get under the cap. I went with Ben Bishop, and then clicked ‘submit’. It never even dawned on me to check if Bishop would start. After all – Nabokov really, truly sucks. I didn’t check Goalie Post. I just made my pick and clicked ‘submit’. ROOKIE. What an idiot.

This truly is a ramblings because my thoughts are all over the place – 1000 words in and I haven’t really looked closely at the scoring summaries yet. I’m just watching the games and thoughts pop in my head and I jot them down. Yep, my best ramblings are after a few beers. So Drance – stop giving me your Sunday ramblings. Or…give me more of them. Depends on your standpoint.

Alex Stalock had a rocky start, but a solid game for the Sharks, stopping 37 of 40 shots. But Antoine Roussel rocked him with this elbow to the head that knocked him down with two minutes left here:

* <a href="frozenpool_profiler.php?players=1295&sent=go&games=2014-2015%3AR">Logan Couture</a> has 15 points in his last 11 games. Yes, it’s early but the torch is clearly being passed. Instead of <a href="frozenpool_profiler.php?players=1285&sent=go&games=2014-2015%3AR">Joe Thornton</a> and <a href="frozenpool_profiler.php?players=1287&sent=go&games=2014-2015%3AR">Patrick Marleau</a> getting 75 points while the kids gets 60 points…you’ll see Thornton and Marleau get 65 points while Couture and <a href="frozenpool_profiler.php?players=1299&sent=go&games=2014-2015%3AR">Joe Pavelski</a> get 70 points. And <a href="frozenpool_profiler.php?players=3621&sent=go&games=2014-2015%3AR">Tomas Hertl</a> will get 50 – and in one or two years he’ll join Couture and Pavelski. San Jose has their own little mini-conveyer belt going. Not as good as Detroit’s, but getting there. * Speaking of Hertl, he has points in three consecutive games now and four in that span. * <a href="frozenpool_profiler.php?players=3951&sent=go&games=2014-2015%3AR">Johnny Gaudreau</a> is my new favorite to win the Calder Trophy. I’ve been cautious on this, because his preseason hype mirrored that of <a href="frozenpool_profiler.php?players=1853&sent=go&games=2014-2015%3AR">Nathan Gerbe</a> back in the day. But Gaudreau has proven to be both more durable and more creative. It’s hard to believe that he went five games without a point to start the year. So he has 12 points in 10 games. I’d bet on him getting 55 points this year, but a secret part of my brain is insisting that he’ll get 65. I guess it boils down to how much his 160-pound body (soaking wet, after eating two quarter pounders) can take in this league with 220-pound power forwards. * And while I’m naming award winners – <a href="frozenpool_profiler.php?players=250&sent=go&games=2014-2015%3AR">Mark Giordano</a> has my Norris right now. The guy is third in scoring. So we can say that the Flames suck and make a preseason prediction of 29th in the league – but if you have a super star defenseman who is going to get 60 points or more (as Giordano seems to be), plus the rookie of the year…then that changes the entire dynamic of your team. Suddenly your team goes from <a href="frozenpool_profiler.php?players=542&sent=go&games=2014-2015%3AR">Jiri Hudler</a>, <a href="frozenpool_profiler.php?players=15&sent=go&games=2014-2015%3AR">Jonas Hiller</a> and 22 no-names…to Hudler, Hiller, a superstar defenseman and the top rookie in the league. * Speaking of top scorers, <a href="frozenpool_profiler.php?players=432&sent=go&games=2014-2015%3AR">Jakub Voracek</a>…huh? He’s tied with Crosby for the league lead with 19 points. Four more than <a href="frozenpool_profiler.php?players=1138&sent=go&games=2014-2015%3AR">Claude Giroux</a>. While Giroux is the offensive catalyst of that line…I can’t help but hearken back to Voracek’s pre-draft hype. It was all about his upside and potential. He was a bit of an enigma, but he had the highest pure offensive upside in the draft. Here is the profile we had on him in the 2008 Fantasy <a href="http://www.dobbersports.com/dobbersports-shop/dobberhockey-products.html">Prospects Report</a>: Voracek nearly made the Blue Jackets last fall. Instead, the team decided not to rush his development and let him tear it up in Junior instead. He's still 18 years old, barely being eligible for the 2007 draft (he was 17 at the time), so where there were question marks a year ago there are nothing but exclamation marks this time around. Be confident that he will make the team within two years – probably in 2008 – and that he will make an impact immediately. Voracek is also a clutch player, so he will be a huge asset to your playoff roster as well. Upside: (40-50-90+, 90 PIM) Certainty (NHLer; Upside): 99%; 50% * <a href="frozenpool_profiler.php?players=3917&sent=go&games=2014-2015%3AR">Nathan MacKinnon</a> hitting <a href="frozenpool_profiler.php?players=2056&sent=go&games=2014-2015%3AR">Luke Schenn</a> at the wrong time – five-minute major. Patrick Roy freaks out: <iframe width="560″ height="315″ src="//www.youtube.com/embed/hercmAKKp-Y" frameborder="0″ allowfullscreen>