January 25, 2015

Thomas Drance

2015-01-25

 

Thoughts on All-Star weekend, the new Hockey world Cup format, and my second half all-regression team.

 

***

 

The NHL doesn’t always host an All-Star game – there have only been three All-Star events in the past six seasons – but when they do, they schedule it conveniently on the same day as the Pro Bowl. 

 

I also find it fascinating to look at how the other major professional sports leagues in North America are forced to plan around the television juggernaut that is the Super Bowl. It’s like the Super Bowl is a black hole that sucks up all light, but for television ratings.

 

It’s not just the NHL that is busy working a marquee league event into a short NFL-less dead zone this weekend. The NBA is also aggressively counter programming the NFL today, as they’ve got some huge matchups due to tip off on Sunday (including LeBron James vs. Kevin Durant). 

 

Then next week – on Super Bowl day – the NBA and the NHL have apparent reached some sort of strange detente. The NHL isn’t even trying to compete with the NBA in the pre-Super Bowl afternoon time slots.

 

Here’s how the pre-Super Bowl scheduling lookss. The NBA has all of their biggest markets in action, with the Miami Heat playing the Boston Celtics and the Los Angeles Lakers playing some unwatchable, Kobe-less ball against the New York Knicks. Having four huge markets play each other early in the afternoon must’ve seemed like a good idea when they first planned this out, but all of those teams are all awful are unlikely to draw any sort of national audience. Perhaps the plan is to attract regional viewers in-advance of the Super Bowl.

 

In recent years the NHL has held a marquee afternoon game prior to the Super Bowl (typically Alex Ovechkin vs. Sidney Crosby). I always figured that plan was about “the NHL being second on Sportscenter” and generally it worked.

 

This time around the mix if a bit more eclectic and regional, and the Sunday is a bit busier. Crosby and Ovechkin will still be in action, but they’ll be playing a pair of heartland teams in the St. Loius Blues and the Nashville Predators. Meanwhile the Montreal Canadiens host the Arizona Coyotes, while the Vancouver Canucks face the Minnesota Wild in a game that some people like to call a “rivalry game”, right before they pull their hamstring as a result of the stretch. 

 

I wonder if, in terms of the NHL’s media plans here, they’ve sort of decided to cede the bigger markets (Boston, Miami, Los Angeles New York) to the NBA, contenting themselves to clean up elsewhere before the Super Bowl starts (D.C., Minneapolis/St. Paul, Nashville, St. Louis, PIttsburgh).

 

 

It feels pretty unambitious to me though. Like the NHL is doing their NBAPA impersonation and have put their tail between their legs.

 

*

 

Like pretty much everyone else except Anze Kopitar, I am not that pumped up about the format for the 2016 World Cup of Hockey tournament

 

That the World Cup is returning is great fun, but the two gimmick teams – one U23 All-Star team and one World All-Star team – make the format irksome. I tend to think that the internal logic of a best-on-best international tournament, will make this experiment look even worse once the tournament begins.

 

After all, think about the pace of International Hockey at its best: Canada vs. the USA in 2010, or the USA vs. Russia in 2014. The pace of those games is electric, in part because of the stakes and the national pride on the line. What if, say, we have an elimination game between the U23s and the Wolrd team in the afternoon – played at the 75-80 percent pace we’re likely to get from the All-Star competitiors later today – and then immediately after that game is broadcast, we get USA vs. Canada. 

 

USA vs. Canada would have the best making of a true hockey grudge match, where the World vs. U23s would, well, not at all. In other words, what works about international hockey might work against the NHL’s gimmicky experiment at the 2016 World Cup. 

 

No harm in trying something once, I suppose, but on first blush this seems like a really bad idea. 

 

*

 

So far I’ve actually found All-Star weekend decently fun. The draft was a bit dull, but at least Alex Ovechkin became the zany drinking buddy of every hockey fan who tuned in for the evening. That’s worth it, right there.

 

As for the Skills Competition, y’know, it’s not really for me, but there were parts of it that I found interesting. 

 

Personally I love the hardest shot competition, and it was really sick to see a couple of forwards (Alex Ovechkin and Steven Stamkos) really try hard to break 100 m.p.h.. Obviously Ovechkin managed it.

 

Meanwhile watching Shea Weber – and guys who shoot similarly hard – step into a slapshot is the closest thing in hockey to a slam dunk in basketball. My only issue, really, is the lack of drama. We all knew no one there could shoot it as hard as Weber could, particularly since P.K. Subban and Zdeno Chara were – like us – watching from home.

 

Come to think of it, the NBA brings non All-Star players with crazy hops and zany dunk ideas to the dunk competition every year. Maybe the NHL should bring the likes of Jason Garrison to the hardest shot competition. Who cares if he shows up just for one Skills Event? Really I just want to see big men shooting the puck as hard and as fast as is humanly possible. The more serious competitiors there are, the better.

 

*

 

Johnny Gaudreau wanting to light his stick on fire for the breakaway competition is incredible. I’m not sure why the NHL felt it necessary not to allow it. After all, Ovechkin was on the ice to make sure it got put out safely!

 

*

 

Tampa Bay Lightning forward Tyler Johnson won’t be able to play in the game on Sunday, but he will avoid suspension by showing up in Columbus this weekend. The NHL reportedly threatened teams earlier this month using the Pavel Datsyuk/Nicklas Lidstrom precedent as a guideline. Miss All-Star weekend, you also miss the first game after the break.

I absolutely love watching Jonathan Drouin play, and it’s no surprise that he nearly broke the NHL’s record for fastest skater time in the All-Star Skills Competition on Saturday night. He kid is an absolute freak, and when the gets the occassional look in a top-six role with Tampa Bay, he does a couple of things that legitimately make me gasp per contest.

 

Looking over Drouin’s underlying data, his shot rate is incredibly anemic – like Henrik Sedin/Joe Thornton/Tyler Bozak levels. So it would seem that he’s likely to be a playmaker primarily at the NHL level. He’s got hands and a shot though. It would be cool to see him use it more.

 

*

 

Finally I’l leave you with a quick list that I’ll call my “all 2nd half regression team.” These are basically players – all forwards mind you – who have decent underlying numbers (in particular their 5-on-5 shot rate), but are in the bottom-50 among regular NHL forwards in 5-on-5 shooting percentage. None of the following players’ teams have scored on even six percent of their shots this season, so they’re due for some bounces in the second half.

 

Cam Atkinson

 

Atkinson has been a prolific volume shooter for several years now, although his sh% has now lagged for a sample that’s larger than 120 games (including this season and lost). At some point legitimate shooting percentage outliers do emerge (like David Booth), at which point that player stops being due to regress to 7.5-8 percent on-ice shooting. I don’t think we’re quite there with Atkinson yet, though he’s on watch. 

 

Currently the Blue Jackets are scoring on 4.55 percent of shots with Atkinson on the ice at evens, even as his personal shot rate compares favorably with the likes of Anaheim Ducks forward Corey Perry.

 

Eric Staal

 

The Hurricanes have been enormously snake bit this season and Eric Staal is no exception. Once the most consistent 30 goal scorer in the sport, Staal has 28 points in 41 games and is poised to post fewer than 30 goals for the fourth consecutive campaign (one of those seasons was a lockout though, in fairness).

 

Staal probably won’t get to 30, but he is due to get hot over the latter half of the season. Currently the big volume shooting center has a shot rate near 9.5 looks per 60 minutes of five-on-five ice-time, but the Hurricanes are finishing just 5.35 percent of their even strength shots when he’s on the ice. Once those bounces even out, Staal shoud see a few more pucks find the back of the net.

 

Nail Yakupov

 

Yakupov is running out of time to prove that he isn’t the second coming of Alexandre Daigle. He could go a long way towards suggesting that with a big second half.

 

It should happen, almost by default, just based on how unlucky the skilled Russian forward has been so far this season. Yakupov is in the bottom-50 among all regular NHL forwards in even-strength on-ice shooting percentage with an anemic 5.35 mark, but he’s in the top-100 by shot rate. It helps that his ice-time is spiking of late too.

 

Scottie Upshall

 

Bothered by an ankle injury this season, Upshall has had something of a nightmare contract year in Broward County. Beyond the naggling lower-body ailment, Upshall has managed just five goals and 11 points in his 31 games this season. 

 

Upshall’s usage is a bit of a concern, as he’s hovering around 10 minutes per game on the fourth-line. Still, his shot rate remains very good (he’s just outside the top-75 among all NHL forwards) and, man, has he been unlucky in the offensive end. Currently Florida is converting on just 5 percent of the shots they take with Upshall on the ice, which should regress in a favorable direction regardless of whether or not Upshall finishes the season in a depth role, or moves back up the lineup.

 

Emerson Etem

 

Currently in the AHL, Emerson Etem is poised to go off if he gets another NHL look. Keep your eye out for hiim on the waiver wire.

 

Let’s start with his AHL stats, which are off the charts. Etem, 22, is already legitimately too good for the American Hockey League. He has nine goals and 15 points in 15 games since being re-assigned to Norfolk in early January, and he’s averaging better than 3.8 shots per game for the Ducks’ top minor league affiliate. 3.8! that’s an insane, almost god-like number. 

 

It’s not inconsistent in some ways with what Etem was doing in the NHL earlier this season. He just wasn’t having any luck.

 

Among NHL forwards who’ve logged at least 300 minutes this season Etem ranks 29th in the entire league by shot rate. His shot rate is better than Radim Vrbata’s or Nikita Kucherov’s! Unfortunately his on-ice shooting percentage is below five and his personal shooting percentage at evens is below four. Translation: he got demoted.

 

In all seriousness, Etem appears to be a big, bona fide, volume shooting winger who provides physical value too. At some point he’s going to force his way onto the Ducks lineup, and you should try and own him when that occurs.

 

Patrick Sharp

 

Easily the most extreme case. Patrick Sharp is second in the entire NHL in shot rate to Rick Nash, but he’s scoring on 2.25 percent of his 5on5 shots so far this season. That’s insane, especially for a guy with excellent touch around the net and a howitzer shot from distance.  

 

The Blackhawks as a whole are only converting 5.56 percent of shots with Sharp on the ice, and honestly, based on how frequently he tests goaltenders, at least a good deal of that low number is direct attributable to Sharp’s inability to beat goaltenders on his own looks this season. 

 

Sharp’s leg injury may be part of this story, but even so, with how often he’s shooting the puck, he’s bound to score on more than 2.25 percent of his shots in the second half. Consider offering cents on the dollar to acquire him in your fantasy league!

 

Enjoy All-Star Sunday!

 

Thomas Drance is the supervising editor of the Nation Network.

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