January 29, 2015

steve laidlaw

2015-01-29

Why isn’t penalties drawn a fantasy stat? Toffoli returns, Gardiner filling in for Phaneuf and more…

Only a few games on last night but certainly some good ones.

The Capitals got the best of the Penguins in a matchup of two teams that played the night before. The Capitals coming off a loss in Columbus simply had way more juice than the Penguins coming off their come-from-behind win against the Jets. No idea if there was any psychology in play but up and down the Capitals were better.

Sidney Crosby was a game-time decision but did end up returning. Wonder if this had something to do with the letdown. The sample size is ridiculously small but the Penguins' win against Winnipeg without Crosby or Evgeni Malkin pushed them to 9-0-1 in 10 games since 2011 with both out of the lineup. Ewing Theory anyone? I think it's dumb but it's fun to talk about so I'll throw that out there.

Regardless of how they got there, considering this shutout win for Braden Holtby a feather in the cap for the camp that believes Holtby is a better own from here on out than Pittsburgh's Marc-Andre Fleury. I don't actually know that there is a Holtby "camp" here but maybe there should be.

This is not the first time I've suggested that Holtby may be one of the best goalies to own from here on out using Fleury as a comparison. My stance was that I didn't have the guts to bail on Fleury and I probably still don't but all of a sudden Holtby's numbers on the season are better than Fleury's. No really, look:

	Games	Wins	GAA	Save%	Shutouts
Fleury	38	22	2.36	0.92	6
Holtby	42	23	2.25	0.922	5

The margins are razor thin but one of these guys is trending up while the other is trending down. Actually, Holtby's shutout ended a three-game losing streak during which he had allowed four goals in each start but he has generally been playing much better.

Fleury, on the other hand, is now riding a four-game losing skid that I don't totally blame him for. The Penguins injury woes have really slowed them down after a hot start. Fleury played well last night but he couldn't control the fact that the skaters in front of him conceded an endless stream of two-on-ones.

Back to Holtby though. Look at all those starts. We all talk about what a workhorse that Cory Schneider has been all season (more on him later) but how about Holtby? He's started seven of every eight games for Washington, on pace for 70 appearances. I thought we'd never see the day with the way they've cycled goalies in Washington. Barry Trotz and Mitch Korn really have been the boon for Holtby that we all hoped they would be.

Healthy scratch for Andre Burakovsky despite riding a three-game scoring streak. Lots of complaints about how this sends a bad message to the youngster, benching him despite his productivity but I might go the other way on this. Burakovsky may have scored in the Columbus game but he was also a minus-one. I didn't watch the game but isn't it possible he made a defensive gaff leading to that minus-one and thus warranting a benching?

Look, it's no surprise that Trotz is taking it slow with his youngsters. I hate myself a little bit for forgetting how tough it was for young players in Nashville when I jumped on board the Evgeny Kuznetsov for Calder bandwagon. But it doesn't mean Trotz is doing it wrong here.

Michael Latta snagged Burakovsky's spot in the lineup skating just 8:13 but he did what he's supposed to throwing down with Steve Downie.

I'd be remiss if I didn't also mention two-point nights for each of Alexander Ovechkin, Nicklas Backstrom and Mike Green. Ovechkin scored a couple of goals to vault himself ahead of Rick Nash and Tyler Seguin for sole possession of the goal-scoring lead with 29.

Ovechkin also snagged his fantasy owners some PIM for being way stronger than Christian Ehrhoff. Indeed, Ehrhoff attempted to hit Ovechkin but it was Ehrhoff who got the worst of it leaving the game following the hit. He did not return. No word on his status.

Cory Schneider, mentioned previously for his workhorse status, also made his 42^nd appearance of the season last night standing tall against the suddenly anemic Leaf attack. He stopped 29 of 30 shots for the shootout win. He has definitely gotten his act together after a slow start to the season.

The Leafs played their first game without Dion Phaneuf who we found out will miss time with a hand injury. Jake Gardiner skated 9:02 of a possible 10 minutes with the man advantage. So if you are wondering who benefits the most, I think we've found our man. Of course, the Leafs also went 0/5 on those power play chances so perhaps they go back to the drawing board.

The Leafs gave plenty of chances to a four-forward power play unit with Nazem Kadri sliding into a point spot alongside Gardiner. That meant less chances for Cody Franson in his usual spot on the top unit, which helps no one.

James van Riemsdyk had himself a night scoring the lone Leaf goal and firing off eight shots.

Leo Komarov returned to the lineup skating just 12:54 but was up on a line with Kadri and Phil Kessel. Check out the Leafs lines from last night:

17.62%	EV	24 HOLLAND,PETER – 25 SANTORELLI,MICHAEL – 26 WINNIK,DANIEL
12.38%	EV	43 KADRI,NAZEM – 81 KESSEL,PHIL – 47 KOMAROV,LEO
11.9%	EV	42 BOZAK,TYLER – 71 CLARKSON,DAVID – 21 VAN RIEMSDYK,JAMES
7.14%	EV	20 BOOTH,DAVID – 18 PANIK,RICHARD – 23 SMITH,TREVOR

Patrick Sharp was bumped up onto a line with Patrick Kane and Brad Richards, which was probably the Blackhawks' best line all night. Certainly, they were the most productive with Sharp and Kane each notching two points apiece.

Kane has once again pulled into a tie for second in the scoring race with 53 on the season. Come on, Kaner! I've got big bucks riding on this.

A point each for David Rundblad and Teuvo Teravainen, the Blackhawks' two least used players on the night. For Rundblad he notched an assist after having his shot get blocked right onto Kane's stick on the doorstep. He doesn't get that assist without the shot attempt but he does continue to have a series of fortunate events go his way. We won't be doing a full update but Rundblad sits tied for the top spot in the Jeff Schultz Memorial Trophy power rankings after last night.

Jeff Carter was brilliant for the Kings last night, scoring their first two goals and adding an assist and a screen (interference?) on a third goal. Five shots too. Just buzzing. The break certainly seems to have reinvigorated him.

Interesting note, Carter doesn't have any short-handed goals this season. In fact, he only has one in his career since leaving Philadelphia but I swear I have seen a number of occasions where he has been dangerous as a penalty killer. I think the Blackhawks took notice as Kane got on his horse to prevent a Carter one-on-one attempt on Duncan Keith simply to remove any chance of something bad happening.

It's possible that this was just an audible by Kane but I'd like to believe that this was something that the coaching staff keyed in on during a game-tape session, if only because I think it's awesome that a guy who has just one shortie in the past four seasons could demand so much attention as a dangerous penalty killer.

It should be noted that Carter was perennially dangerous in Philly scoring 12 shorties over his first five years with the team. You can't even blame a lack of usage for his decline either. Carter has seen a regular shift on the PK every season he's been with the Kings. It just goes to show how tough short-handed goals are to get.

It's not difficult to guess who the top short-handed scorers are after looking at the top Fenwick producers on the penalty kill. Could be worth looking at if you play in a pool that counts shorties.

Of course, the top short-handed goal scorer of this season doesn't appear on that list that I linked to because he hasn't played enough minutes on the PK to qualify. Indeed, Tyler Toffoli has four shorties already despite skating just under a minute per game on the PK. Good to be lucky, lucky to be good, right?

Toffoli returned to the lineup last night, by the way. He was on Carter's wing and produced a goal and an assist.

Taylor Hall is officially day-to-day with a bone bruise in the leg. If the Oilers care at all about tanking Hall isn't going in tonight's contest against the Sabres.

As always there are some great bits in Elliotte Friedman's latest 30 Thoughts. This here is the juiciest though:

23. So what does all of this new data mean?

NHL COO John Collins said last weekend we will see an overhaul of NHL.com beginning next month. It is the first of several phases intended to make the website a much more comprehensive place.

The plans are ambitious, from enhanced stats (Corsi, Fenwick, PDO) to a cleaner look to greater interactivity. The intention is also to make it easier to compare players, not only today, but era to era.

I can only imagine what they are cooking up. Will I finally be able to get all my advanced stats, contract information and other such statistical info all in one place? If they are smart, that is exactly what they will be providing. No guarantees on that, however.

TSN's Travis Yost takes a look at the best penalty-drawers in the NHL.

This is not the first time that I have brought this up but I still don't know how "penalties drawn" isn't a fantasy stat. I'd argue it would be the most important stat you could track in fantasy hockey outside of goals and assists. It should be about on par with shots on-goal as a stat.

I mean, we track penalties taken as if it's a positive but not penalties drawn. We also track who arbitrarily scores the "game-winning goal" but we don't care about guys giving their team a better chance of scoring said winner by putting the opposition down a man. This is stupid.

My ideal fantasy pool tracks six skater categories: Goals, Assists, Plus/Minus, Power-Play Points, Shots On-Goal and Penalties Drawn. If there is a provider that can give me that, I'm funnelling all of my leagues towards them.

Pierre LeBrun reports that the Canucks are so impressed with Jacob Markstrom that they are pulling him from the trade market, which seems like the opposite of what they should be doing. Were they operating under the premise of "buy low/sell high" Markstrom's impressive AHL play should make him a great asset to move – especially if you recall that Markstrom has always had great AHL numbers but it's that step to the NHL that has always been difficult for him.

That being said, Ryan Miller isn't a long term solution and if they aren't committed to Eddie Lack then it makes sense to simply keep the options open in terms of goalie talent in-house. It just seems to me that the Canucks have a crowded crease shaping up with Thatcher Demko (read more on him here) ready to go pro next season and Joacim Eriksson (read more on him here) already at the AHL level for his second season. The logical move would be to send someone along for help elsewhere but then again the Canucks have never been known for applying logic to their goaltending situation.

Cal Clutterbuck is the latest player to be hit with a fine for diving. I do question just how few players have received their second infraction in order to get fined but I think that this system is a great step to curbing this behaviour. The next test is to see how it works come playoff time when the stakes are higher.

We already knew that Simon Gagne's season was done as he has stepped away to grieve the passing of his father. The Bruins have placed him on unconditional waivers, a step necessary in order to terminate his contract. Looks like they are gearing up to clear a little cap room.

A very interesting look at Martin Brodeur's statistical legacy, from FiveThirtyEight.

A lot of that is attributable to Brodeur's durability. As Cam Charron wrote, Brodeur wasn't a whole lot better than average at stopping pucks on a per-shot basis, but he did it for an extremely long time. Brodeur has 59.5 career WAR; a completely average goalie would have posted almost exactly half that — 30.0 WAR (which itself would rank 17th since 1984) — if he'd played as much as Brodeur did. By comparison, a league-average net-minder would have just 28 percent of Patrick Roy's WAR total, and 23 percent of Dominik Hasek's, if he matched their playing time.

This is not necessarily a knock on Brodeur. Perhaps more advanced metrics don't view him as favorably as his high win total seems to warrant, but they also recognize the long-term value of consistent quality (he was above-average every season but two between 1993-94 and 2009-10) at a position where excellence is so difficult to maintain.

Brendan Ross's mid-season draft rankings are out over at McKeen's. Definitely make sure to give those a read.

This happens with a lot of top prospects when their season is done but the buzz about Max Domi (read more on him here) making his NHL debut at the end of the season has already started.

Nice little profile on Kevin Raine, a young man from my home town (Dryden, Ontario) working his way up through the Kings' system. Not really fantasy relevant but I'd be remiss if I didn't show some love. He's working hard towards living the dream.

You can follow me @SteveLaidlaw.