Eastern Edge: Trending Up – Part Two
Eric Daoust
2015-02-10
Part Two of a look at Eastern Conference players trending up.
These days, many fantasy leagues allow in-season roster changes, most notably the ability to add and drop players. These signings from the pool of previously unowned players play a key role in the outcome of these leagues. Obviously, things rarely play out the way we envision at the draft in October. Unexpected players emerge and can help cover for our mistakes at the draft table.
Waiver wire additions are also a good way to take advantage of extreme shifts in player value that go beyond reason. For example, there are always guys that are normally solid fantasy assets but come out of the gate firing blanks. If this goes on for long enough, his owner may give up and send him packing. But at some point the numbers should correct themselves. If your timing is good you can scoop up a viable player in the middle of a hot streak.
With that said, the tracking of trends goes beyond the waiver wire. Higher-end players also go through their share of ups and downs. Their slumps will usually not result in them being released but they could become trade block fodder available at a discount rate. Sometimes owners simply forget how good the player can be and underestimate his true potential. The key is to set your team up to maximize production down the stretch regardless of what happened in the first half.
The goal here is to try to look beyond short hot streaks and find players that have improved their play in 2015, thus showing a more significant sample of improved play. Today will be part 2 of a list of players in the Eastern Conference that are trending up in 2015. Part 1 can be found here.
New York Islanders
Travis Hamonic (9 pts in 16 GP in 2015, 8 pts in 27 GP in 2014) – After a few years of not providing much at the offensive end of the ice, Hamonic has shown glimpses in 2015 that he may have more to offer. A major factor in his recent offensive surge is an increase in power play time. Since January 6 he has averaged 1:47 per game on the man advantage after being used much more sparingly prior to that. As a result, four of Hamonic's nine points in 2015 were achieved on the power play. With the positive results you can expect to see him continue to get used similarly for at least the near future but keep in mind that he is not a natural point producer and probably will not sustain this production over the long haul.
Anders Lee (8 pts in 16 GP in 2015, 13 pts in 31 GP in 2014) – Lee was a logical choice to benefit from the absence of Kyle Okposo. He has logged 16 or more minutes in four of seven games since Okposo went down and has been spending a lot of time riding shotgun on the John Tavares line. While the overall season total still does not look pretty, his production in 2015 should make him relevant in some deeper leagues, not to mention his obvious multi-category appeal in leagues that count hits and shot on goal.
New York Rangers
Mark Streit (12 pts in 16 GP in 2015, 24 pts in 37 GP in 2014) – Streit has been incredibly consistent over the years and does not get nearly enough credit for his feats. Since his third NHL campaign – his final in Montreal, he has potted 40 or more points in each full season. This year, he is four points shy of hitting that mark yet again and has been helped along by some red-hot production on the power play in 2015. Of his 12 points in the New Year, 10 have come on the man advantage. This probably puts Streit in sell-high territory as his current production on the power play is likely unsustainable. Also, his shooting percentage, which currently sits at 9.5%, is well above his career average of 7.6% so expect a few less goals down the stretch.
Pittsburgh
Kris Letang (18 pts in 15 GP in 2015, 23 pts in 32 GP in 2014) – The oft-injured Letang has been surprisingly healthy this year and has produced monstrous numbers. This is not entirely uncommon for him as he has had similar red-hot partial seasons in 2012 and 2013. The only question is his health which has been a problem in each of the previous three years. If you own him you are in a tough spot. If you do not like gambling you can try to take advantage of the recent surge and peddle Letang for one of the other elite (and healthier) defensemen or for a top-end player at another position.
David Perron (12 pts in 15 GP in 2015, 19 pts in 38 GP in 2014) – Perron has adjusted very well to his new environment in Pittsburgh. His 12 points in 15 games since the trade would put him on pace to beat his career-best of 57 points over a full schedule. Obviously, having better linemates helps a lot (most frequently used on Sidney Crosby's line) but Perron has also received a significant increase in ice time, primarily due to getting more power play time. This will help keep his production up in the coming months.
Tampa Bay
Jonathan Drouin (9 pts in 15 GP in 2015, 14 pts in 29 GP in 2014) – Drouin has been used in a very sheltered role all year but his play in 2015 shows that he is starting to figure things out. Despite the improvement, he is still not shooting enough. But even with this low shot total he should have more than two goals so there is definitely room for even better numbers down the stretch. It is worth noting that even though Drouin's average ice time in 2015 has remained on par with his season average, he is seeing an uptick in average power play time. With all of the talent around him in Tampa Bay, this can only mean good things.
Cedric Paquette (10 pts in 16 GP in 2015, 7 pts in 29 GP in 2014) – Paquette has been on the radar of late mainly for his multi-category prowess but has really come to life offensively in 2015. It helps being on such a deep team which offers Paquette some talented wingers even on the third line. Unfortunately, his shooting percentage (16%) is very high and probably unsustainable. Still, the fact that he is having so much success is going a long way towards establishing himself as a full-time NHLer. This is important point to retain because Paquette did spend some time in the AHL this year.
Toronto
Jake Gardiner (5 pts in 16 GP in 2015, 9 pts in 35 GP in 2014) – Sadly due to the poor play of the Leafs, especially at the offensive end of the rink, the pickings for "trending up" are very slim. For most of the year, Gardiner has been a disaster but has been playing slightly better of late. His five points since in the new year are nothing special but any improvement is welcome at this point and could provide a confidence boost needed to take things to the next level when Cody Franson is eventually dealt. At that point, Gardiner, Morgan Rielly and Dion Phaneuf will compete for two spots on the top power play unit.
Daniel Winnik (6 pts in 16 GP in 2015, 14 pts in 36 GP in 2014) – Winnik's 2015 production is just about on par with his prior pace but his increased ice time is definitely worth noting. His usage has gone up to an average of 17:54 in the new year compared to his season average of 16:38. This helps Winnik's fantasy values in two ways: it helps him sustain his current points pace, which is good by his standards, but also gives him more time to accumulate peripheral stats. As it stands, Winnik is actually a decent depth multi-category player in deeper leagues highlighted by his 16 assists, plus-12 rating, 81 hits and 43 blocks.
Washington
Troy Brouwer (10 pts in 18 GP in 2015, 17 pts in 36 GP in 2014) – Brouwer has shown a small uptick in production in 2015 and has recovered nicely from a slow start to the season. With a career-high of 43 points he has never been much of a factor in points-only leagues but the improvement at the offensive end certainly helps his multi-category value. His production moving forward should remain steady because even though his shooting percentage is above his career average, it is on par with the two years prior to this one.
Mike Green (14 pts in 18 GP in 2015, 18 pts in 27 GP in 2014) – Green has had a very up-and-down career but this year is certainly one of his highs. It looks like scaling back Greens' minutes (19:10) and using him in a more sheltered role has paid dividends. The timing could not be better for the pending unrestricted free agent. Amazingly, there is still room for Green to improve down the stretch as he five goals and shooting percentage of 5% are both lower than what we have seen in the past including some very impressive goal-scoring totals when the stars align.
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