Eastern Edge: Trending Down – Part Two

Eric Daoust

2015-02-24

JakubVoracek

18 Eastern Conference players trending downward.

Over the course of an NHL season we get the opportunity to experience the ups and downs that players go through. From a fantasy perspective, there are times that players are almost guaranteed to get on the score sheet every night and there are other times when he cannot buy a point for weeks. When they are down it can be very frustrating for fantasy owners that need production to win their league championship. Occasionally, the downward trend reaches a point where the owner is forced to take action.

Today we will look at a list of players in the Eastern Conference that had trended down since the start of 2015. After having covered one half of the teams in the East last week, we will cover the remaining teams here. The goal here is to try to look beyond short cold streaks and find players that have declined over a more significant sample of games while trying to get to the bottom of the issue. The players covered will range from higher-tier players experiencing frustrating runs all the way to more fringe players that have fallen off the cliff in terms of fantasy relevance.

NY Islanders

Nick Leddy (8 pts in 24 GP in 2015, 17 pts in 37 GP in 2014) – Sometimes, when a player gets hot and starts producing at an unusual rate, it can come at the expense of another player at least for the time being. After all, scoring is not exactly high in the NHL so there are only so many points to go around. Two weeks ago Travis Hamonic was listed as a player trending up in 2015 despite a lack of history at any level as a major point producer. Meanwhile Leddy has found himself trending down in 2015 despite continuing to get excellent ice time as well as prime power play minutes. There is nothing to worry about with Leddy long-term though as defensemen are always streakier than forwards. As long as he continues getting opportunities the luck will eventually start going back in his favor.

Brock Nelson (7 pts in 24 GP in 2015, 27 pts in 37 GP in 2014) – After such a promising start to his breakout campaign, Nelson has hit a wall in the New Year. Now playing on the third line and with fewer total minutes than he was getting in 2014, it is easy for slumps to begin and confidence to be shaken. Not helping matters is his shooting which has slipped to under two shots per game in 2015 as opposed to nearly two and a half per outing prior to that. Nelson's upside down the stretch will be limited if his environment remains the same.

Ryan Strome (11 pts in 24 GP in 2015, 27 pts in 37 GP in 2014) – Like Nelson, Strome has also slowed down since January 1^st but to a lesser extent. The fact that he is still getting his usual ice time, including strong power play minutes, and is shooting at his usual rate is helping soften the damage of the decline. The numbers indicate that Strome is in a better position than Nelson to rebound, at least in the short-term, and the injury to Kyle Okposo will help keep Strome in an important scoring role for the foreseeable future.

NY Rangers

Ryan McDonagh (10 pts in 23 GP in 2015, 13 pts in 24 GP in 2014) – McDonagh is an excellent two-way defender but has really come to life offensively over the last two seasons. However, since the start of 2015 his offensive production has slowed down a bit. A bit of digging into the matter helps expose one of the culprits: his power play utilization. Despite nine of his 23 total points coming on the man advantage, McDonagh has seen just 1:52 of power play time per contest since the New Year. The end result is just three points in these situations in 2015 as opposed to nine in 2014. Given McDonagh's high-end talent, expect him to correct course down the stretch.

Martin St. Louis (16 pts in 23 GP in 2015, 28 pts in 35 GP in 2014) – In his first full year in New York, St. Louis has not been able to repeat the numbers that he has posted in Tampa Bay. In fact, his shot totals have been surprisingly low this year as he is on pace to finish with just 163 shots on goal. To put that in perspective, he has only finished with fewer than 200 shots once during a full campaign since reaching the star level back in 2003. This makes his 18 goals so far this season surprising as it puts his shooting percentage near 16%. Adding to the concern is that, even though St. Louis has maintained his production level well into his late 30s, there is always the possibility that he may start showing signs of slowing down.

Ottawa

Alex Chiasson (6 pts in 18 GP in 2015, 15 pts in 33 GP in 2014) – After being on the verge of becoming fantasy-relevant earlier in the year, Chiasson's production has stalled in 2015. One reason is a drop in ice time which has slipped at an average of 13:42 in the ew Year, down from his season average of 14:55. Currently he is a bottom-six winger for the Senators which will not help matters. Meanwhile Milan Michalek is back on track and Mike Hoffman and Mark Stone have established themselves as top-six winger for the time being. Therefore, it will be difficult for Chiasson to rise up the depth chart anytime soon.

Clarke MacArthur (7 pts in 18 GP in 2015, 19 pts in 35 GP in 2014) – MacArthur has really slowed down after such a great first year with the Senators. However, things have taken a turn for the worse in 2015. There is certainly room for improvement down the stretch as MacArthur's shooting percentage sits 3% below his season average while continuing to get consistent minutes on the power play. Unfortunately, MacArthur is now sidelined with a concussion so it remains to be seen if and when he will be available and also how effective he will be upon his return.

Philadelphia

Pittsburgh

Steve Downie (6 pts in 21 GP in 2015, 17 pts in 32 GP in 2014) – After a hot start to the campaign in part due to opportunities created following a rash of injurie in Pittsburgh as well as the mumps epidemic, Downie has come back down to earth. With David Perron acquired via trade and Patric Hornqvist, Blake Comeau and Beau Bennett back from injury, Downie now finds himself on the fourth line. He has also been a healthy scratch on multiple occasions of late. While the hits and PIM will never be lacking for Downie, it looks like the favorable scoring environment is a thing of the past.

Chris Kunitz (11 pts in 23 GP in 2015, 24 pts in 29 GP in 2014) – After being one of the top revelations of the last few years in the fantasy hockey world, Kunitz has clearly taken a step back this year. He is still a very productive winger, primarily when he lines up next to Sidney Crosby, but has suffered at times from being the odd man out in some line-shuffling. Regardless of what happens to the trios down the stretch, the days of Kunitz, now 34, hitting the point-per-game mark are likely behind him. After two years of inflated shoting percentages, his rate has fallen back to his career average of 13% which could signify that this is the new norm barring a sudden increase in shots on goal.

This does not mean that it is time to abandon ship as a fantasy owner. Rival owners will tend to be afraid to commit to players in their mid-30s regardless of their production. Instead, ride it out and continue to benefit from what Kunitz has left to offer. If you do not own him, now may strangely be a time to buy low is his owner is worried about the age factor.

Tampa Bay

Ryan Callahan (13 pts in 23 GP in 2015, 30 pts in 34 GP in 2014) – Callahan was previously flagged as a candidate for a decline in production down the stretch. This was primarily due to an elevated shooting percentage that resulted from a red-hot start to the season. Even with the more reasonable production in 2015, his shooting percentage still sits close to 1.5% above his career average. This makes it difficult to classify Callahan as a buy-low candidate for the remainder of the year. One sign of hope is that his frequent centerman, superstar Steven Stamkos, has underperformed this year and could be due for a big surge.

Steven Stamkos (17 pts in 23 GP in 2015, 38 pts in 39 GP in 2014) – The former 60-goal scorer is certainly having a disappointing year. Coincidentally, this happens to be his first full campaign without Martin St. Louis in Tampa Bay. Over the years, Stamkos has not been an elite-level playmaker, with a career-best of just 46 helpers back in 2010-11. Instead, he relies heavily on his goal-scoring abilities. While his shot totals this year have been reasonable, his shooting percentage is 4% below the gaudy 20% he posted both last year and when he hit the 60-goal mark. Those are probably outliers though as his career average sits at 17%, closer to his current pace. More recently, the Bolts' second line of Ondrej Palat, Tyler Johnson and Nikita Kucherov has been carrying the team offensively which has deprived Stamkos of the team's hottest wingers. At some point this line will be broken up though which will help Stamkos get his overall point total back on track.

Toronto

Phil Kessel (7 pts in 22 GP in 2015, 41 pts in 38 GP in 2014) – Regardless of what the numbers read, sometimes there are real-life factors that can turn a slump into a never-ending disaster. The Leafs' coaching change was followed by the team's fall in the standings and inability to score goals. Now the team appears to be headed for a major rebuild and Kessel finds himself in the middle of trade rumors. With just seven points in 2015, he has clearly been affected by all of the drama in Toronto. While he will clearly improve upon his recent numbers down the stretch, regardless of which team owns him, getting back to his usual production rate this year is in major doubt. In keeper leagues, it is best to weather the storm for now as Kessel has a long history of elite-level scoring that will serve you well in the years to come.

Leo Komarov (5 pts in 17 GP in 2015, 16 pts in 24 GP in 2014) – Komarov surprised most people returning from the KHL to post some outstanding offensive numbers in the early going. Even though a couple injuries really cut into Komarov's momentum, his early success was not sustainable. Playing in a depth role with limited ice time, he is not shooting enough to score a lot of goals and mostly plays with linemates that are far from scoring machines, thus limiting his ability to chip in assists. Even with his recent decline in production, Komarov remains a strong multi-category player due to his massive hit totals and his role on the penalty-kill allowing for some shorthanded points.

Washington

Andre Burakovsky (8 pts in 18 GP in 2015, 13 pts in 27 GP in 2014) – The inclusion of Burakovsky has a lot less to do with an actual drop in production than it does with constantly being a healthy scratch regardless of his play. After being close to fantasy relevance earlier in the season, it looks like you will have to look elsewhere for help down the stretch. Obviously, his true value lies in keeper leagues due to his immense long-term potential. In some instances he may even be available for cheap if his owner is getting frustrates with his utilization.

Brooks Laich (7 pts in 25 GP in 2015, 7 pts in 21 GP in 2014) – Laich's versatility and past history putting up solid offensive numbers made him worth keeping on the radar after showing signs of life recently. Unfortunately, he has not been able to take the next step and has fallen off the map once again. There is still a lot of room for growth as Laich is shooting quite frequently for a secondary player and his shooting percentage sits at just 6%, down from his career average of 10%. However, even if he could get that part of his game straightened out he would not be relevant outside of select multi-category formats.

Tom Wilson (4 pts in 23 GP in 2015, 9 pts in 25 GP in 2014) – After showing some mild indications of progression in the first half, including many looks on the Capitals' top line, Wilson's production has dried up in 2015. As a result, his ice time is way down and at times he finds himself in the press box. Power forwards like Wilson tend to take longer to develop so it is not unnatural for him to face these challenges. Still, fantasy owners will be frustrated which may open some windows to buy low. It would be a sound idea to invest in Wilson if you are in a multi-category league. Alongside his significant contributions in hits and PIM, it will not take much offense for Wilson to become a major player in some setups.

Follow me on Twitter @DH_EricDaoust.