Eastern Edge: Trending Down – Part Two

Eric Daoust

2015-02-24

JakubVoracek

 

18 Eastern Conference players trending downward.

 

Over the course of an NHL season we get the opportunity to experience the ups and downs that players go through. From a fantasy perspective, there are times that players are almost guaranteed to get on the score sheet every night and there are other times when he cannot buy a point for weeks. When they are down it can be very frustrating for fantasy owners that need production to win their league championship. Occasionally, the downward trend reaches a point where the owner is forced to take action.

 

Today we will look at a list of players in the Eastern Conference that had trended down since the start of 2015. After having covered one half of the teams in the East last week, we will cover the remaining teams here. The goal here is to try to look beyond short cold streaks and find players that have declined over a more significant sample of games while trying to get to the bottom of the issue. The players covered will range from higher-tier players experiencing frustrating runs all the way to more fringe players that have fallen off the cliff in terms of fantasy relevance.

 

NY Islanders

 

Nick Leddy (8 pts in 24 GP in 2015, 17 pts in 37 GP in 2014) – Sometimes, when a player gets hot and starts producing at an unusual rate, it can come at the expense of another player at least for the time being. After all, scoring is not exactly high in the NHL so there are only so many points to go around. Two weeks ago Travis Hamonic was listed as a player trending up in 2015 despite a lack of history at any level as a major point producer. Meanwhile Leddy has found himself trending down in 2015 despite continuing to get excellent ice time as well as prime power play minutes. There is nothing to worry about with Leddy long-term though as defensemen are always streakier than forwards. As long as he continues getting opportunities the luck will eventually start going back in his favor.

 

Brock Nelson (7 pts in 24 GP in 2015, 27 pts in 37 GP in 2014) – After such a promising start to his breakout campaign, Nelson has hit a wall in the New Year. Now playing on the third line and with fewer total minutes than he was getting in 2014, it is easy for slumps to begin and confidence to be shaken. Not helping matters is his shooting which has slipped to under two shots per game in 2015 as opposed to nearly two and a half per outing prior to that. Nelson's upside down the stretch will be limited if his environment remains the same.

 

Ryan Strome (11 pts in 24 GP in 2015, 27 pts in 37 GP in 2014) – Like Nelson, Strome has also slowed down since January 1st but to a lesser extent. The fact that he is still getting his usual ice time, including strong power play minutes, and is shooting at his usual rate is helping soften the damage of the decline.  The numbers indicate that Strome is in a better position than Nelson to rebound, at least in the short-term, and the injury to Kyle Okposo will help keep Strome in an important scoring role for the foreseeable future.

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NY Rangers

 

Ryan McDonagh (10 pts in 23 GP in 2015, 13 pts in 24 GP in 2014) – McDonagh is an excellent two-way defender but has really come to life offensively over the last two seasons. However, since the start of 2015 his offensive production has slowed down a bit. A bit of digging into the matter helps expose one of the culprits: his power play utilization. Despite nine of his 23 total points coming on the man advantage, McDonagh has seen just 1:52 of power play time per contest since the New Year. The end result is just three points in these situations in 2015 as opposed to nine in 2014. Given McDonagh's high-end talent, expect him to correct course down the stretch.

 

Martin St. Louis (16 pts in 23 GP in 2015, 28 pts in 35 GP in 2014) – In his first full year in New York, St. Louis has not been able to repeat the numbers that he has posted in Tampa Bay.  In fact, his shot totals have been surprisingly low this year as he is on pace to finish with just 163 shots on goal. To put that in perspective, he has only finished with fewer than 200 shots once during a full campaign since reaching the star level back in 2003. This makes his 18 goals so far this season surprising as it puts his shooting percentage near 16%. Adding to the concern is that, even though St. Louis has maintained his production level well into his late 30s, there is always the possibility that he may start showing signs of slowing down.

 

Ottawa

 

Alex Chiasson (6 pts in 18 GP in 2015, 15 pts in 33 GP in 2014) – After being on the verge of becoming fantasy-relevant earlier in the year, Chiasson's production has stalled in 2015. One reason is a drop in ice time which has slipped at an average of 13:42 in the ew Year, down from his season average of 14:55. Currently he is a bottom-six winger for the Senators which will not help matters. Meanwhile Milan Michalek is back on track and Mike Hoffman and Mark Stone have established themselves as top-six winger for the time being. Therefore, it will be difficult for Chiasson to rise up the depth chart anytime soon.

 

Clarke MacArthur (7 pts in 18 GP in 2015, 19 pts in 35 GP in 2014) – MacArthur has really slowed down after such a great first year with the Senators. However, things have taken a turn for the worse in 2015. There is certainly room for improvement down the stretch as MacArthur's shooting percentage sits 3% below his season average while continuing to get consistent minutes on the power play. Unfortunately, MacArthur is now sidelined with a concussion so it remains to be seen if and when he will be available and also how effective he will be upon his return.

 

Philadelphia

 

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