March 14, 2015

steve laidlaw

2015-03-14

Doug Wilson puts his foot in his mouth, the Oilers’ power play clicking and more…

 

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The Hamburglar strikes again. I'm on record several times indicating that the Senators should keep riding this dude until his mojo runs out. I'm generally an analytical dude but I know what it's like to get into a zone where you play beyond your means. That's what is happening here with Hammond. Why fight it? The playoffs are a long shot anyway. You almost need something insane like this Hammond thing to make it happen.

 

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Kyle Okposo was back on the top line with John Tavares and Josh Bailey. That didn't take long. They didn't exactly click going a minus-two each while on the ice for both goals against.

 

Frans Nielsen was made a healthy scratch last night. I know he was dealing with some bumps and bruises a couple of weeks ago so I wonder if the Islanders didn't see this as a chance to get him so rest while their forward group was relatively healthy. They are basically locked into a playoff spot so it wouldn't surprise me if they started giving guys random nights off down the stretch. Would have been nice to get some warning though.

We'll know more as the Islanders go again today. If Nielsen is out again then something is up. If it's someone else then they are just taking turns.

 

How about that fat new deal for Johnny Boychuk? I really don't mind it. He was a pending UFA and it was always going to take something extra to get him to sign on without testing the market and considering the breakout season he's had, there was no way he'd come cheap. A really good comparable for Boychuk is Matt Niskanen who also had a breakout year in a contract year.

 

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Now Niskanen wasn't 31 when he signed his deal. He was 27 but Boychuk is the better defenseman so that comes with a bit of a premium.

 

I almost look at Boychuk's deal more like Zdeno Chara's seven-year extension signed way back when. The Bruins new there would be pain at the end of the deal as it extended Chara into his 40's but they also saw it as a chance to keep Chara's cap hit down while they had a window to win so they took a shot.

 

I don't know when the pain will start for the Islanders. Hopefully not for a few years. If they get four great years out of Boychuk, more than half the deal, then it's probably worth it and once you reach those last few seasons you just hope the cap is high enough that his hit doesn't kill you. Odds are the cap doesn't escalate enough to make $6 million irrelevant but it can become more palatable. And in the meantime, the Islanders' window remains open.

 

You could certainly argue that with some of the prospects in the Islanders' cupboard that they didn't need to overextend themselves with a deal that's almost certain to give them grief by the end of it. You could definitely argue that this deal will eventually cost them one of their young forwards. I wouldn't necessarily disagree.

 

I'd have loved to see the Islanders overpay in the short term because of all the cap space they have with cheap young players plus stars in Tavares and Okposo on below-market deals but there's no guarantee that Boychuk would have gone for a short deal even at a huge salary. I think he'd have tested the market and gotten at least this good from someone else. And I don't think that the Islanders heading into a new building next season were willing to risk upsetting that balance just yet. I loved Nick Leddy's new deal, I'm merely tolerant of Boychuk's as a necessary evil.

 

What's going to be really painful is the diminishing returns. Boychuk has had a breakout season built on a huge amount of power play time but Travis Hamonic has been leaching more and more of those minutes from Boychuk as he evolves into a true #1 defenseman.

 

If Boychuk falls back into a 25-30-point defenseman do you still tolerate this contract for him? I do but that's because I appreciate what else he does for the Islanders. From a pure fantasy perspective though some might accuse him of mailing it in after getting paid when that won't necessarily be the case. It makes for a good narrative though.

 

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Mike Green returned to the lineup for Washington last night but he was eased in skating just 18:24 with 24 seconds of power play time. John Carlson remains the big gun for Washington.

 

One side effect was the Capitals were able to send down Cameron Schilling and recall Andre Burakovsky. Burakovsky skated just 11:55 but did manage an assist but based on the way his season has gone that assist probably gets him sent to the press box. Seriously, as great as Barry Trotz is for a lot of people, rookies just aren't among them.

 

Braden Holtby got yanked last night for the first time since November. A stellar run to be sure but he's been sliding lately with losses in six of his last nine. He hasn't necessarily played that poorly in those losses however. It's as much about a lack of goal support as anything. Last night didn't go well though.

 

If I'm a Holtby owner I'm excited about Green returning. They could use a little more offense. It would help if Nicklas Backstrom got over the illness that nearly cost him time earlier this week.

 

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John Klingberg missed last night's game, which meant more big minutes for Alex Goligoski. He went minus-two but notched a power-play assist. The more time Klingberg misses the more likely it is that Goligoski reaches 40. Only nine more to go. Klingberg is still listed as just day-to-day so this could all come to a screeching halt for Goligoski so enjoy it while it lasts.

 

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Want a good reason why Jordan Eberle and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins are killing it since the All-Star break? The Oilers' power play is finally clicking. After scoring on three of five chances last night the Oilers have scored on exactly one third of their last 48 power play chances and 27% of their chances since the All-Star break.

 

I talked about Nugent-Hopkins' growth as an even-strength performer in yesterday's ramblings but also mentioned that the next step for him is when that power play gets back on track. This is way too small of a sample size to be predictive for next year but it's still got to be considered a plus.

 

This sweet dish by Eberle helps too:

 

 

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It looks like Ryan Johansen is running out of steam at the worst time. Over the last month he has scored just seven points in 16 games. He's shooting as much as ever but with just two goals in that stretch his shooting percentage is falling back towards his career average of 11.6% after floating in that 14% range for the past year and a half. I do believe that Johansen is a well above average shooter but even guys like that can have slumps.

 

I haven't watched a ton of Jackets lately but what I've seen gives me the vibe that Johansen is just playing out the string here. I certainly don't blame him if that's the case though maybe it's simply the result of being asked to carry Rene Bourque's dead weight. In any case, you'd be advised to look elsewhere for production if you've got other options on your roster or the waiver wire.

 

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