Playoff Prep – Analysis of Western Conference Teams 2015

Doran Libin

2015-04-06

VladimirTarasenko2

Playoff preparation – looking at the Western Conference players

Entering the last week of the season it is time to look ahead to the playoffs. The following column looks at the career regular season point per game rates and post-season point per game rates of the forwards and defensemen of the top four teams in the west. These are the contenders in the west, it would include Los Angeles except that they are not a sure thing to make the playoffs.

St Louis

Forwards

Player	Season	P/O	Player	Season	P/O	Player	Season	P/O
Tarasenko	0.75	0.57	Backes	0.64	0.48	Oshie	0.70	0.29
Schwartz	0.66	0.33	Steen	0.63	0.40	Lehtera	0.60	N/A
Stastny	0.83	0.82	Jaskin	0.26	N/A	Berglund	0.48	0.39
Reaves	0.13	0.00	Ott	0.36	0.18	Jokinen	0.61	N/A
Goc	0.30	0.25	Porter	0.16	0.33

Defense

Player	Season	Playoffs	Player	Season	Playoffs
Shattenkirk	0.59	0.43	Pietrangelo	0.56	0.50
Bouwmeester	0.39	0.17	Bortuzzo	0.18	N/A
Jackman	0.23	0.21	Michalek	0.24	0.20
Gunnarsson	0.27	N/A	Butler	0.22	N/A

Vladimir Tarasenko brings another dimension to the Blues as a dynamic scorer and has shown the ability to provide that dynamism in a limited sample size in last year's playoffs. Based off this year, and what he was able to do last year, Tarasenko should be the first Blue taken for the playoffs. The 'STL' line also gives the Blues a second scoring line to go with the incumbent Backes/Steen/Oshie line. The nature of the lines means that Stastny should not be expected to match his playoffs numbers from Colorado. He has gone from a top six role in Colorado to the number seven forward in St Louis, as such 0.80 points per game just will not happen in that role. Obviously do not read much in to Olli Jokinen's numbers, the days of 0.60 points per game are long since past.

On defense there is no one worth owning after Shattenkirk and Pietrangelo. Maybe Bouwmeester if it is late and desperation has struck. Pietrangelo's minutes go through the roof in the playoffs, which may make him as good of an option as Shattenkirk, unless Shattenkirk can get back to his pre-injury production on the power play. If the Blues power play starts clicking like it did in the first half Shattenkirk is a must have if the Blues are to go deep. With Kane injured, and Chicago swooning, this is likely the Blues' best shot. In that scenario he is probably the second best Blue to own.

Chicago

Forwards

Player	Season	P/O	Player	Season	P/O	Player	Season	P/O
Toews	0.90	0.86	Kane	0.97	0.98	Hossa	0.90	0.74
Sharp	0.70	0.62	Saad	0.61	0.52	Versteeg	0.58	0.56
Bickell	0.37	0.60	Vermette	0.52	0.31	Richards	0.86	0.76
Shaw	0.43	0.45	Carcillo	0.23	0.31	Desjardins	0.18	0.15
Teravainen	0.24	N/A	Kruger	0.30	0.19	Nordstrom	0.12	N/A

Defense

Player	Season	Playoffs	Player	Season	Playoffs
Keith	0.54	0.58	Seabrook	0.42	0.52
Hjalmarsson	0.21	0.22	Oduya	0.23	0.30
Rundblad	0.23	N/A	Roszival	0.33	0.26
Timonen	0.52	0.40

There are two players in the above chart to ignore either in whole or in part. The first is Patrick Kane who seems set to miss the first two rounds with his injury. The second is Brad Richards who has done close to nothing, since Kane got injured. Toews will be forced to play as offensive of a role as ever so look for him, Hossa and the third member of that line, most recently Versteeg, to have a big playoffs. Look for the second line of Vermette, Sharp and Richards to take on more of a defensive role. The sleeper line to look for is the third line of Bickell, Shaw and Saad as they get the most offensive zone starts. They will not set the league on fire with goals but they will get the easiest minutes of the four Chicago lines. They are probably worth a longer look than Vermette and/or Richards.

On defense there are two obvious choices in Duncan Keith and Brent Seabrook as they are the only defensemen on the Blackhawks that see significant power play time. Timonen has the potential to put up some decent numbers for Chicago but he is averaging less than 12 minutes per game, with only half of those coming at even strength.