April 9, 2015

steve laidlaw

2015-04-09

Top 10 goalies for next season, Capital playoff sleepers, and more…

Not a whole lot to discuss with regard to last night's games.

Sergei Bobrovsky notched a shutout but that's not really an accomplishment against the Leafs. More importantly I've talked ad nauseam about my love of Bobrovsky's late-season runs and how I think he's a top 10 goalie going into next year. I guess I'll just repeat myself. Bobrovsky is a top 10 goalie for next year!

That sort of proclamation really begs the question; who else do you have in your top 10? Glad you asked!

Carey Price, Pekka Rinne, Tuukka Rask and Henrik Lundqvist are all no brainers. Braden Holtby (who also recorded a shutout yesterday) is basically a no-brainer too. Corey Crawford, Jonathan Quick and Marc-Andre Fleury are all consistent enough to slide into the top 10 pretty easily, leaving two slots and I've got Bobrovsky with one of those.

Who is the final guy on my list?

Ben Bishop is nice there's enough Andrei Vasilevskiy around to make me shy away.

Devan Dubnyk might have been the single most influential goalie in fantasy hockey and the NHL this season but he doesn't have enough of a track record for my liking.

The situations in St. Louis, Anaheim and Ottawa are so cloudy that I'm not riding with any one goalie. I should mention that Jake Allen is supposed to start tonight with the chance of becoming the go-to guy if he doesn't mess up. Indeed, it seems that Ken Hitchcock is intent on riding the hot hand turning an already complicated situation into complete disarray.

Jaroslav Halak is a top 10 goalie in wins-only leagues but that's not what I'm talking about here. Maybe I should have specified sooner.

Three guys really jump out to me: Semyon Varlamov, Cory Schneider and Roberto Luongo.

Where I finally land probably depends on how the teams of these starters improve over the summer. All are similar to Bobrovsky as entrenched starters with a history of elite production but skating for non-playoff teams. I really believe in the Blue Jackets roster, which is why Bobrovsky has top 10 billing. Right now, the Panthers have easily the most promising roster of the three teams under consideration here, which puts Luongo at the front of the pack, for now.

If you are wondering, yes this does mean shots fired at Steve Mason, Ryan Miller, Jonas Hiller and Jimmy Howard. Please keep in mind that it is only April so a lot will change but that's where I've got goalies ranked in the interim. It should be fun to track how my mind changes over the summer so maybe bookmark these ramblings.

The Bruins still hold their fate in their own hands as they have the tiebreaker over the Senators but laying an egg last night was not the way to go about testing that fate.

David Krejci still ain't right. He started off on the wing and recorded two assists in his debut but has just one point in six games since as he has migrated back to center. Center is a loose definition though as the Bruins have only one real centerman right now, Patrice Bergeron. Of the 63 faceoffs in the game last night, Bergeron took 31, even while skating just 17:59.

The point is, the Bruins aren't long for this world, even if they make the playoffs. So don't go making Krejci your big sleeper pick.

On the other hand, the Bruins will most likely be universally avoided in playoff pools should they make it in so if you want to go against the grain you can try to mine value here.

As much as last night was a showcase of why the Bruins are a bad bet for playoff pools it was also a showcase of why the Capitals are a good bet for playoff pools. They have home ice in Round One all but sown up and appear to be peaking at just the right time with Alexander Ovechkin and Braden Holtby really hitting their strides in the second half.

Any goof knows to pick Ovechkin in a playoff pool though so what made last night so appealing was the depth scorers who went off. Both Marcus Johansson and Troy Brouwer had multi-point efforts helping them to surpass or match career highs in points. Both have a history of being playoff flops but both are in the top six and on the top power play unit. If the Capitals win a round then these guys will have value.

It's also worth mentioning Evgeny Kuznetsov recorded an assist to push his scoring run to 13 points in the last 16 games. He's coming in hot with Ovechkin as a linemate. In another year Kuznetsov might be in the Calder conversation with 37 points. This year he isn't even in the top five.

Stanislav Galiev made his NHL debut last night for the Caps with Eric Fehr and Tom Wilson out of the lineup. Galiev skated just 9:56 and doesn't figure to have relevance any time soon but he has some upside as a long term prospect. Read more on Galiev here.

Erik Cole's injury situation is frightening. I hope only the best for him. I've got to point out the fantasy relevance of this is that it pushes Gustav Nyquist onto the first line with Henrik Zetterberg on a permanent basis, which boosts his playoff sleeper potential. Not that I'm hot for the Red Wings this year.

The Canucks gave extensions to Derek Dorsett and Luca Sbisa yesterday. Chris Pudsey covered the Dorsett extension in his latest Capped article but I'll touch on the Sbisa one here.

I'm not a huge fan of the deal. If a defenseman can walk and chew gum at the same time then he gets $4 million a year. I'm just not sure Sbisa can do that.

Check out his HERO chart courtesy of Fear the Fin. The only thing that Sbisa doesn't do like a bottom-pairing defenseman is skate 18+ minutes a night. That's not to say that Sbisa can't grow into his contract but he's going to be getting $3.6 million a year with the hope that he can play to that level.

The biggest concern for me, and I have this concern with regard to the Dorsett signing as well, is that the Canucks seem to be doubling down on a roster that may not be all that good. Yes, they'll have home-ice advantage in the opening round but they still might be one and done.

I just don't see a whole lot of upside in continuing on with a roster barely breaking even in terms of puck possession. This is especially glaring when you see that Dorsett and Sbisa are two of the worst possession players on the team.

Possession isn't everything. Both players offer the physical dimension that has value outside of the numbers. Both Sbisa and Dorsett are assets in leagues that score hits, blocked shots and PIM so the fact that their contracts will guarantee they get opportunities are a plus. I just don't think that having those guys around to block the progress of promising youngsters and threaten their goalies on a nightly basis is the best use of the Canucks' cap room but there are interpersonal, locker room factors that could be at play that I'd have no way of quantifying.

If you've been happy with what you've gotten out of your Panthers over the final quarter of the season then you'll be pleased to hear that Jaromir Jagr thinks the chances are good that he will re-sign there this summer.

Hurricanes prospect Haydn Fleury (read more on him here) will get some pro experience skating with Carolina's AHL team to close the season. We have Fleury rated as the top Hurricanes prospect and with the dearth of defensemen in Carolina it's exciting to see Fleury moving up the ladder.

Our man, Ian Gooding, hands out some fantasy awards for this season.

Check out the latest prospect ramblings from Zach Hopkins.

Solid breakdown of the Penguins' collapse against the Senators from Justin Bourne.

Some great stuff from Kevin Shattenkirk on the best defensemen in the game:

Shea Weber

Playing against this guy is not very fun. At all. There's nothing like being a defenseman standing in front of the net on the penalty kill, watching him take a big wind up. It's pretty insane. One time Shea's slapper hit me in the leg and it pretty much destroyed my shin guard. When I got back to the locker room at intermission it had a big crack in it. Thankfully, you don't even have time to think about being afraid because the shot is on you so fast. You have zero time to react. You only have enough time for your brain to think: Welp, if this hits me, it's gonna hurt. Then, zing.

Bonus material from Shattenkirk here with Part Two of that article.

Those pieces come courtesy of The Players Tribune who are putting together a really great look at sports from an insider's perspective. So far they haven't done a ton of hockey articles but what they have done has been great.

In celebration of the impressive Central division this season, Sean McIndoe looks at the most stacked divisions in NHL history.

You can follow me @SteveLaidlaw.

UPCOMING GAMES

Dec 22 - 12:12	NYR	vs	CAR
Dec 22 - 17:12	T.B	vs	FLA
Dec 22 - 17:12	UTA	vs	ANA
Dec 22 - 17:12	WSH	vs	L.A
Dec 22 - 20:12	EDM	vs	OTT
Dec 22 - 20:12	COL	vs	SEA