Playoff Prep – Eastern Conference Part Two
Eric Daoust
2015-04-14
Another look at Eastern Conference players to target and avoid in playoff pools.
Even with most of the year's hockey pools coming to a close last weekend, the beginning of the NHL playoffs is still a very important time in fantasy hockey. Player values change all the time and the postseason is no different in that regard.
After going through the top two teams of each division in the Eastern Conference last week, we will now look at the remaining four Eastern teams that qualified for the NHL postseason, with analysis being done from the perspective of playoff pools or keeper leagues (or both).
POS
Pts/G
PPts/G
Diff
Marc Methot
D
0.22
0.36
0.14
Cody Ceci
D
0.23
0.29
0.06
Erik Karlsson
D
0.76
0.65
-0.11
Patrick Wiercioch
D
0.36
0.00
-0.36
Jean-Gabriel Pageau
F
0.29
0.60
0.31
Erik Condra
F
0.29
0.47
0.18
Kyle Turris
F
0.57
0.71
0.14
Clarke MacArthur
F
0.55
0.60
0.05
David Legwand
F
0.57
0.53
-0.04
Chris Neil
F
0.26
0.21
-0.05
Alex Chiasson
F
0.42
0.33
-0.09
Mika Zibanejad
F
0.50
0.40
-0.10
Zack Smith
F
0.24
0.13
-0.11
Bobby Ryan
F
0.74
0.58
-0.16
Mark Stone
F
0.70
0.50
-0.20
Milan Michalek
F
0.61
0.40
-0.21
Mike Hoffman
F
0.50
N/A
N/A
Curtis Lazar
F
0.22
N/A
N/A
Jean-Gabriel Pageau – Two years ago when the Sens were in the postseason, Pageau played a big part in their success with six points in 10 games. While he has not become a significant offensive contributor in the regular season yet, he can play in many situations which helps him stay relevant in the lineup. If you are banking on the Sens to win at least one round, Pageau is not a bad option and will be available towards the end of your draft. In keeper leagues, this could be a rare example where a strong postseason actually leads to better numbers next year. Pageau is still just 22 and is still developing his overall game while trying to earn the coaching staff's trust to give him more ice time down the road.
Clarke MacArthur – MacArthur is often a forgotten player in pools but has had a pretty strong career, as he has posted good numbers over the years. Like Pageau, he could be a solid addition late in your playoff draft. It is worth noting that in his only participation in postseason play, MacArthur had a solid showing in Toronto with three points in five games despite an average of just 12:21 minutes of ice time.
David Legwand – Legwand's numbers have suffered greatly since arriving in Ottawa. Most notably, his ice time is down to less than 14 minutes per game, as some of the team's younger players are taking on more responsibility. With that said, Legwand has seen extensive playoff time in Nashville including three consecutive strong showings combining for 22 points in 28 games. This experience could come in handy should those young players fail to deliver out of the gate. He should not be put ahead of MacArthur or Pageau, but Legwand could be a decent desperation pick in a deep league. He has received regular duty on the power play this season, too.
Bobby Ryan – Ryan has had a nice bounce-back year, returning to the 50-point mark. He still has a very high profile in the minds of many poolies out there which will make him one of the first Sens to go off the board. While his playoff output has not been bad by any means, it does not justify his perceived value.
Pittsburgh
Player |
POS |
Pts/G |
PPts/G |
Diff |
Paul Martin |
D |
0.39 |
0.48 |
0.09 |
Christian Ehrhoff |
D |
0.44 |
0.47 |
0.03 |
Ben Lovejoy |
D |
0.25 |
0.21 |
-0.04 |
Derrick Pouliot |
D |
0.21 |
N/A |
N/A |
Steve Downie |
F |
0.45 |
0.65 |
0.20 |
Nick Spaling |
F |
0.29 |
0.32 |
0.03 |
Brandon Sutter |
F |
0.37 |
0.36 |
-0.01 |
Beau Bennett |
F |
0.34 |
0.33 |
-0.01 |
Maxim Lapierre |
F |
0.23 |
0.20 |
-0.03 |
Evgeni Malkin |
F |
1.20 |
1.16 |
-0.04 |
Craig Adams |
F |
0.17 |
0.11 |
-0.06 |
Chris Kunitz |
F |
0.70 |
0.59 |
-0.11 |
David Perron |
F |
0.59 |
0.47 |
-0.12 |
Sidney Crosby |
F |
1.36 |
1.20 |
-0.16 |
Daniel Winnik |
F |
0.32 |
0.10 |
-0.22 |
Patric Hornqvist |
F |
0.63 |
0.33 |
-0.30 |
Blake Comeau |
F |
0.40 |
0.00 |
-0.40 |
Paul Martin – While Martin has had an up-and-down career at the offensive end during the regular season, he has been money for the most part during postseason play since joining the Penguins. With Kris Letang likely not returning this year, Martin will be put in a more offensive role than usual. If the Pens could get past the Rangers in the first round, he could pay huge dividends in a draft pool.
However, in keeper leagues the exact opposite holds true. While Martin has been a solid playoff performer, he has been very underwhelming during the regular season which is what truly matters for the vast majority of fantasy leagues. With a career-high of 37 points and just three years of 30 or more points, any success that Martin enjoys during this playoff run puts him in a sell-high position in deep leagues.
Steve Downie – Over the years, Downie's undisciplined play has landed him in trouble and, oddly enough, he has been ditched by a few teams already. But the numbers do not lie and Downie has always been a solid secondary point producer. During his only extended playoff appearance with Tampa Bay in 2011, Downie came up big with 14 points despite just 12:35 per game on the ice. His ice time this year is nearly identical, indicating that he finds himself in a similar role. If he can keep his cool, he can provide some nice production for your playoff pool.
Chris Kunitz – Needless to say, Kunitz failed to meet expectations this year. This caused many to sound alarms and write him off due to his age. In many instances, the concern is way out of proportion which could help you in a draft pool. If others are down on him, you may be able to snatch him late. Over the years, he has certainly been a solid performer in the playoffs, especially since arriving in Pittsburgh.
Patric Hornqvist – One of my favorite new fantasy stars this year was Hornqvist, whose stock rose immensely after being dealt to the Penguins by Nashville. He did not disappoint as he posted an impressive 51 points in just 64 games. But Hornqvist did have several strong years with the Predators, including a couple extended postseason runs. Unfortunately, the Swedish winger was a total non-factor on the score sheet with just eight points in 24 playoff games despite 80 shots on goal. While it is reasonable to think he will be better in his new environment, it would be wise to slide him down your list a bit. There is a lot of risk here.
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Playoff Prep – Eastern Conference 2015