Montreal Canadiens Sign Alex Semin

Michael Clifford

2015-07-24

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The Montreal Canadiens have signed winger Alex Semin to a one-year contract.

The Summer of Marc continued today as the Montreal Canadiens gave former Carolina Hurricanes forward Alex Semin a one-year contract for $1.1-million next year. The Hurricanes bought him out after the second year of a 5-year, $35-million contract just before free agency hit this year, making the 31-year old a free agent.

It may come to a bit of a surprise the age this guy is to some more casual hockey fans. This isn't a player who is just coming into the downside of his career. He will be 32-years old before the next regular season is over, which means those 40-goal days are a pipe dream, not a plausible reality.

When something like this comes up, I generally go through the process of "what do we know" to establish what is known for certain about a player. This is what we know about Semin:

He was a healthy scratch last year often for the Hurricanes, purportedly due to a lack of work ethic.

The numbers show a steep decline from a couple of years ago: in the lockout-shortened season, Semin posted 2.52 points per 60 minutes at five-on-five; last year that plummeted to 1.16.

As a whole, his Carolina career was not the unmitigated disaster it is made out to be: Out of 218 forwards that played at least 2000 minutes at five-on-five, he finished 102nd in points per 60 minutes. Doing some quick math, that's top-six production. It just wasn't worth $7-million a year.

The top-six production is not a mirage, just take a look through here.

It also should be noted that the Hurricanes did not make very many people look good. This is a team that plays Jeff Skinner on the third line, and as a whole, over Semin's tenure, they were the worst shooting team in the league. Worse than Arizona, worse than Florida, worse than Buffalo.

So the Habs get a player who, over the course of playing for the worst offensive team in the NHL for three years, produced as a second liner. They also get him at $1.1-million.

That last point is something I don't think is being hammered home enough. At a cap hit of $1.1-million, he will make half of what Lance Bouma makes, just over one-third of Deryk Engelland, half of Nick Spaling's cap hit, $500K less than Jared Boll, and the list goes on and on. It's also a one-year deal. If the Habs aren't happy with his work ethic, or any other buzz word, by the end of October or November, fire him onto waivers and that's that.

There really isn't much to lose here. The Habs either get a second line winger that they desperately needed, or they add another player to the waiver wire abyss. The Habs still have over $6-million in cap space, so even if they have to eat the deal for a year, it's not going to hurt them. I just don't see the downside. He produces, or he's gone. It's not like they signed him to a 5-year, $35-million contract.

Fantasy Take

Of course, there's fantasy value here if Semin does stick around in the top-six forward mix. The team desperately needs a second line right winger since they bought out P.A. Parenteau – unless the belief is Dale Weise is good for that role, or Zack Kassian establishes himself. That second line could be something of Galchenyuk-Plekanec-Semin, which could work out well.

As I mentioned above, the elite goal scoring days of Semin are certainly gone. He did take well above three shots per game in his first two seasons with Carolina though, before it pretty much cratered in half last year. Even a modest rebound in that regard with a 75-game season could see 15-20 goals from Semin, with about 25 assists.

Again, this is all dependent on him showing work ethic and production. He could have a 20-goal, 45 point season, or he could be on the NHL waiver wire by Halloween.

For fantasy, he's nothing but a last round pick. Just as this contract is a "show me" contract for the Habs and Semin, this is a "show me" year for Semin and fantasy owners. Don't pay any kind of real price at the draft table for him.  

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