Oliver Ekman-Larsson and James van Riemsdyk this season, Kuznetsov's help, and potential upside in Nesterov.

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I am going to start today’s Ramblings continuing for a little bit off what I was talking about yesterday. For those that may have missed it, I discussed Average Draft Positions, their usefulness over the course of a draft season, and some players I was keeping an eye on or that caught my eye. Here are a couple of other players that I’m nervous about drafting at where they are going.

Oliver Ekman-Larsson

I get it. He is truly one of the most gifted offensive d-men in the league in the non-Erik Karlsson division. He is one of just 14 defencemen with at least 40 points in each of the last two seasons, is tied for second in goals among d-men over that stretch, and is just coming into his own at 24 years old. There is also no Keith Yandle around anymore.

I have two concerns here, though.

The first is obviously the plus/minus. For those in roto leagues, I don’t see how he isn’t a major drag in this regard next year. He was a minus-18 last year and the Coyotes arguably got worse in the offseason, if not stagnant. Considering he will be the go-to guy on the blue line, is it inconceivable he’s a minus-20 next year? Or worse? Not really. It won’t be his fault, either. The team around him just isn’t very good.

Second, now that he is the go-to on the blue line, it means facing the top competition of the other team. Over his last two seasons, the Coyotes have generated 52.88 shot attempts per 60 minutes at five-on-five. In albeit small samples, this is what the Coyotes have managed for shot attempt rates when Ekman-Larsson is facing the top (proven) players from the opposition over those last two years:

• vs. Henrik Sedin – 46.88 shot attempts/60
• vs. Anze Kopitar – 49.29 shot attempts/60
• vs. Joe Thornton – 49.50 shot attempts/60
• vs. Ryan Getzlaf – 46.87 shot attempts/60
• vs. David Backes – 35.40 shot attempts/60

Like I said, those are all small samples (between 59 and 81 minutes from the bottom of list on up), but the pattern emerges: when playing against top flight proven centres from the other team, and presumably top flight wingers/defencemen, the Coyotes haven’t fared too well with Ekman-Larsson on the ice offensively (I know, shocker, but it’s something I believe is overlooked). The range of about 48 shots attempts per 60 minutes over the last two years include defencemen like Andrej Meszaros, Mark Fayne, and Andrew Ference. That does not bode well for Ekman-Larsson’s five-on-five numbers this year.

I have no doubt that Ekman-Larsson can get close to or surpass 15 goals again through sheer shot volume and power play time alone, but I wouldn’t bet on more than 25 assists. In short, I just don’t see the upside until this team’s young stars become impact NHLers.

Considering the hit in plus/minus roto owners will take, and the limited offensive potential given his team, I am extremely wary about drafting him among the top-15 defencemen in a one-year league.

James van Riemsdyk

I wrote earlier this summer about van Riemsdyk’s numbers in Toronto when not playing with Phil Kessel. In short, they’re bad.

With the departure of Kessel, and the unlikeliness of Toronto to be much better this year than last, I expected a discount at the draft table. In the mocks I’ve done so far, he has yet to fall out of the top-60 players drafted. Oh boy.

I am not doubting van Riemsdyk’s talent, but much like Ekman-Larsson, I am doubting his supporting cast. He can only do so much, and spending the bulk of the season with Tyler Bozak will not help. In those mocks – again, they are just a guideline, and will change as the draft season wears on – he was being drafted in the same range as guys like Alex Steen, Filip Forsberg, and Blake Wheeler. This year, he should not be drafted ahead of any of those guys.

A reminder: in a little over 2444 minutes at five-on-five with Kessel over the last three years, van Riemsdyk managed 78 points, or a point roughly every 31 minutes. In his 675 minutes without Kessel, he managed a point every 42 minutes. That is roughly a 25-percent drop off.

Caveat emptor.

Enough with the ADPs

One question that has been nagging me throughout the offseason, or at least since I started running projections, is “Does Evgeny Kuznetsov have enough help around him to be a productive fantasy player?”

Justin “Mr. Game 7” Williams was brought in the offseason to help get this team over the hump and make them a contender. They also still have Marcus Johansson on the roster. Assuming that is their second line (who knows), it might get a bit goal starved. Johansson and Williams have combined for 42 five-on-five goals over the last two years, or 10.5 each per season. In the NHL sense of a second liner, that’s good production. In the fantasy hockey sense, that just isn’t enough.

Kuznetsov saw a massive jump in shot rate in the playoffs last year, aided by a big jump in ice time. I do think this is a player that in the right situation can crack 60 points and push towards 70. In Washington, though, playing behind Nicklas Backstrom–Alex Ovechkin, and likely on the second power play unit, I don’t think that’s a situation conducive to a lot of production. I think hoping for more than 50 points this year from the man known as Kuzya is asking a bit much.

Forgot About Hertl

When a player doesn’t take a leap forward like he’s expected to do, sometimes he can start to be written off. After a strong, if brief, rookie campaign that saw Tomas Hertl put up 25 points in 37 games in 2013-2014, he managed just 31 points in 82 games last year. In fact, his point rate at five-on-five was among the worse in the NHL among regular forwards. Like, slightly-better-than-Bozak bad.

The fact remains that Hertl has a good pedigree behind him. In 12 games at the World Juniors, he had 10 points. In his final 81 regular season games, as an 18- and 19-year old in the Czech top league, he managed 55 points (not great, but not bad, either).

There may have been some bad luck last year. War On Ice has him at 170 individual scoring chances last season, top-40 among all forwards, and sandwiched between Anders Lee and Jeff Carter. That is good company.

Here is Hertl’s hextally from W-O-I for shot differentials by area at five-on-five. The darker the red, the higher above average he is compared to the NHL average. This is for the last two seasons, and look at the low slot:

For a comparison, here is Nikita Kucherov’s hextally over the last two years (and they’re the same age). Again, note the low slot:

One of these players is considered a potential superstar in the making, and is being drafted as such. The other is being pretty much undrafted in 10-team leagues.

If I’m in a 10- or 12-team league, I’m getting Hertl on my bench. He is probably playing in San Jose’s still solid top-six, looks to have been a bit unlucky last year, and I don’t think any scout would say he doesn’t have the skills or creativity to be a very good NHL producer. When fantasy owners are ignoring a player who was expected to break out last year but didn’t, that is the opportunity for huge value.  

Cheap depth

The last thing I want to mention today, and I will throw this out to the readers, is this: Does anyone have Tampa Bay defenceman Nikita Nesterov on their radar?

He is not a top pairing guy for them, and will have limited ice time. With that said, he had six points in 17 games in the playoffs last year, playing under 11 minutes a game. I don’t have much faith in guys like Matt Carle and Jason Garrison anymore. So is Nesterov worth a bench spot in 12-team leagues this year, or is he still a year away? Let me know in the comments.

*Last year’s stats from Hockey Abstract. Year-over-year stats from Hockey Analysis. Minor league numbers from Elite Prospects. Others noted in article.