Looking Ahead: Week 23 (2015-16)
Mike Schmidt
2016-03-04
Nikolaj Ehlers makes a great pickup in your fantasy league to finish the season.
All fantasy owners need help in the short term AND the long term. The Looking Ahead feature identifies one player to plug into lineups in the short term, a second to invest in for the long term, a third to bench for the coming week and a fourth who will struggle to meet expectations for some time. All players discussed are selected based on their team’s upcoming schedule. Without further ado…
The Immediate Fix (Grab this guy and use them for the next several days)
Tomas Hertl, C/LW, San Jose (Available in 70 percent of Yahoo leagues) – Inconsistency, thy name is Tomas Hertl. A banner (and injury-shortened) rookie campaign two years ago endeared the young Sharks forward to fantasy owners, but the former 17th overall pick hasn’t been able to match the kind of production he provided during the 2013-14 campaign. He’s still useful, though. Hertl is seeing action on the same line as Joe Thornton and Joe Pavelski, and he’s put together a nice little stretch of play as of late (seven points in 10 games since Feb. 13). All of that almost makes up for the fact that he’s seeing less than 1:30 seconds of ice time per game on the power play this year. Is he a must-add player? No, but Hertl is a nice speculative pickup in the short term. Not many players with his offensive tools play with elite linemates and have a very advantageous schedule coming up. Act now. Worry about what to do with Hertl later.
The Building Block (Buy now, sit back and enjoy the production)
Nikolaj Ehlers, LW/RW, Winnipeg (Available in 85 percent of Yahoo leagues) – Hockey Prospectus prospect guru Ryan Wagman called Ehlers a “tremendous skater and puck mover in perpetual motion” and ranked him 12th on his 2015 Top 100 Prospects List. Dobber ranked Ehlers fourth on his most recent Top 200 Prospect Forwards List. So… there’s quite a bit to like about the 20-year-old, who Winnipeg selected with the ninth overall selection in the 2014 NHL Entry Draft. The Jets are beginning to lean on Ehlers a little bit more, as evidenced by the fact that the young winger has seen at least 17 minutes and 33 seconds of ice time in all but one of his past 10 games. While he’s not exactly dominating the opposition, he’s showing some great signs of developing and honing his skills. Don’t overthink this one. Ehlers has the prospect pedigree. He’s seen a bump in ice time for a team that isn’t competing for anything this year. This is a player just starting to tap into his potential. Get on board.
The Odd Men Out (His short-term value is cause for concern)
T.J. Oshie, C/RW, Washington (Owned in 91 percent of Yahoo leagues) – This St. Louis Blue-turned Washington Capital has done little for fantasy owners in the past month. He has just six points in his last 14 games (three of which came in his last game), which is a bit surprising because he’s not hurt and is playing on the same line as all-world forwards Alex Ovechkin and Nicklas Backstrom. Oshie was putting up some really nice numbers earlier this season (partially due to some extremely favorable puck luck), so it’s likely just a cold streak. Fantasy owners would be wise to sit Oshie until his production comes around. He’s not the must-start guy who was putting up a career campaign a couple of months back. Oshie is more like the guy he’s always really been: an all-around contributor who can put up decent point totals and score effectively at even strength. No more, no less.
The Anchor (He’ll do nothing but disappoint even over the long haul)
Semyon Varlamov, G, Colorado (Owned in 80 percent of Yahoo leagues) – Varlamov has been a (slightly) above-average netminder for his NHL career, and the Avs goaltender elevated his game well beyond that in the two seasons prior to this one (.927 save percentage in 2013-14 and .921 save percentage in 2014-15). This year, though, has been a bit of a letdown. Varlamov’s 2.79 goals-allowed-average is the second highest of his career, and his .912 save percentage ranks 29th among NHL goaltenders who have played in 20 or more games. To make matters worse, he’s posted a save percentage over .900 in just one of his last five appearances. The season is winding down, and it’s difficult to trust Varlamov right now. Poolies who own him have to use him, but expectations must be tempered.
By taking some time to analyze the upcoming NHL schedule, poolies can gain a significant and measurable edge over their opponents. Now let’s identify some teams that will help or hurt fantasy owners in the coming days.
Love ‘Em (These squads are sure to pay dividends in the coming days)
Winnipeg – The Jets opened the month of March with a five-game homestand, and three of their four games this week will take place in Winnipeg. There is a lot about this squad’s schedule in the short term and the long term, so don’t be afraid to lean on Dustin Byfuglien and Co. for the vast majority of this month.
Edmonton – The matchups aren’t too shabby for the Oilers in the coming week (at Columbus, versus San Jose, at Minnesota and versus Arizona). Other than the home tilt against the Sharks, there is nothing imposing to look ahead to for Edmonton.
San Jose – Games against Vancouver, Calgary, the aforementioned Oilers and New Jersey are on tap for this team between Saturday, March 5 and Thursday, March 10. Anyone worried the Sharks won’t get theirs this week? Didn’t think so…
Leave ‘Em (These squads will leave fantasy owners sorely disappointed in the short term)
New Jersey – The Devils’ March schedule is WILDLY depressing. They play nine of 15 games on the road. Also, all but one of the five times New Jersey takes to the ice between Friday, March 4 and Monday, March 14 will count as away games for the Devils. Not that there are many universally fantasy-relevant Devils (Cory Schneider, Kyle Palmieri… and… ?), but this is something to keep in mind…
Washington – On Friday, March 4 the Capitals host a tough New York Rangers squad. Then, the following day, Washington commences with a four-game road trip. This is still an amazing team, but it’s not the week to expect great things from the Caps.
Colorado – Three games are on tap for the Avs in the coming week. Two of those games are tough: versus Nashville and versus Anaheim. After that is a four-game road trip. Pass on Colorado for now.
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Friday, March 4 to Thursday, March 10 |
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Best Bets |
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San Jose 4.21 – four games – VAN, CGY, EDM and NJD |
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Ottawa 4.19 – four games – TOR, DAL, CAR and FLA |
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Boston 3.99 – four games – WAS, FLA, TBL and CAR |
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Winnipeg 3.99 – four games – three at home |
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Edmonton 3.82 – four games – CBJ, WPG, SJS and MIN |
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Steer Clear |
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St. Louis 1.75 – two games – MIN and CHI |
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Chicago 2.06 – two games – DET and STL |
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Philadelphia 2.10 – two games – CBJ and TBL |
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Detroit 2.80 – three games – two on road |
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Anaheim 2.85 – three games – two on road |
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Saturday, March 5 to Friday, March 11 |
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Best Bets |
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Calgary 4.32 – four games – three at home |
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Tampa Bay 4.30 – four games – three at home |
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San Jose 4.21 – four games – VAN, CGY, EDM and NJD |
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Ottawa 4.19 – four games – TOR, DAL, CAR and FLA |
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Arizona 4.15 – four games – FLA, COL, VAN and CGY |
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Steer Clear |
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New Jersey 2.04 – two games – PIT and SJS |
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New York Rangers 2.14 – two games – NYI and BUF |
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Washington 2.61 – three games – all on road |
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St. Louis 2.65 – three games – MIN, CHI and ANA |
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Dallas 2.66 – three games – two on road |
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Sunday, March 6 to Saturday, March 12 |
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Best Bets |
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Ottawa 4.31 – four games – DAL, CAR, FLA and TOR |
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Winnipeg 4.30 – four games – three at home
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Edmonton 4.13 – four games – WPG, SJS, MIN and ARI |
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Boston 4.10 – four games – FLA, TBL, CAR and NYI |
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San Jose 4.05 – four games – CGY, EDM, NJD and WAS |
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Steer Clear |
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Columbus 2.15 – two games – DET and PIT |
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Washington 2.71 – three games – all on road |
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Nashville 2.85 – three games – all on road |
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Minnesota 2.86 – three games – STL, EDM and MTL |
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Anaheim 2.89 – three games – two on road |
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Monday, March 7 to Sunday, March 13 |
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Best Bets |
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Toronto 4.25 – four games – BUF, NYI, OTT and DET |
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Tampa Bay 4.20 – four games – PHIx2, BOS and CBJ |
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Detroit 4.15 – four games – three at home |
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Boston 4.10 – four games – FLA, TBL, CAR and NYI |
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San Jose 4.05 – four games – CGY, EDM, NJD and WAS |
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Steer Clear |
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Minnesota 1.86 – two games – EDM and MTL |
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Chicago 1.90 – two games – both on road |
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New Jersey 1.90 – two games – both on road |
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Dallas 2.70 – three games – MTL, CHI and STL |
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Washington 2.71 – three games – all on road |
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Tuesday, March 8 to Monday, March 14 |
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Best Bets |
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Edmonton 4.22 – four games – three at home |
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Winnipeg 4.20 – four games – NSH, DET, COL and VAN |
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New York Islanders 4.20 – four games – PIT, TOR, BOS and FLA |
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Detroit 4.15 – four games – three at home |
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Nashville 3.85 – four games – WPG, CGY, VAN and EDM |
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Steer Clear |
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Colorado 1.80 – four games – three at home |
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Minnesota 1.86 – two games – EDM and MTL |
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Washington 1.90 – two games – both on road |
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Philadelphia 2.00 – two games – both on road |
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Dallas 2.70 – three games – MTL, CHI and STL |
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Wednesday, March 9 to Tuesday, March 15 |
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Best Bets |
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Detroit 4.25 – four games – three at home |
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New York Islanders 4.10 – four games – TOR, BOS, FLA and PIT |
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Toronto 4.10 – four games – NYI, OTT, DET and TBL |
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Los Angeles 3.95 – four games – WAS, NJD, CHI and DAL |
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Florida 3.92 – four games – OTT, PHI, NYI and MTL |
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Steer Clear |
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Colorado 1.80 – two games – ANA and WPG |
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Buffalo 1.81 – two games – MTL and CAR |
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New York Rangers 2.04 – two games – DET and PIT |
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Columbus 2.05 – two games – PIT and TBL |
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New Jersey 2.71 – three games – all on road |
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Thursday, March 10 to Wednesday, March 16 |
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Best Bets |
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Montreal 4.36 – four games – three at home |
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Detroit 4.25 – four games – three at home |
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Winnipeg 4.15 – four games – DET, COL, VAN and CGY |
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Edmonton 4.06 – four games – three at home |
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Philadelphia 4.01 – four games – TBL, FLA, DET and CHI |
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Steer Clear |
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Colorado 1.90 – two games – both on road |
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Arizona 1.95 – two games – both on road |
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Nashville 2.00 – two games – both on road |
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Columbus 2.05 – two games – PIT and TBL |
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Washington 2.10 – two games – SJS and CAR |
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Wasn’ Ehlers injured and known to be out indefinitely before this article was posted?
I sent the article off Thursday evening, a little less than 24 hours before the news broke. I even felt good about the Ehlers call Friday morning when Laidlaw gave him a shout-out in that day’s Ramblings. As you can imagine, that feeling didn’t last very long.
For Monday, March 7 to Sunday, March 13 you have DET in Best Bets (Detroit 4.15 – four games – three at home) and Steer Clear (Detroit 2.70 – three games – MTL, CHI and STL).
I know its a free site and appreciate the effort, but if the facts are not correct we are just going over to a site like Daily facoff to get the correct info.
Or you could just say “please fix”, that would be appropriate. That’s a typo – should have read “Dallas” but it auto-filled to Detroit, which wasn’t caught.
Just like us, Daily Faceoff has the odd typo too. The difference is that unlike Daily Faceoff, we have more users (like you) and more writers to catch and fix quickly. You’re best off to stick with the best – me. Winning is more fun. ;)
Fixed now.