Ramblings: Talbot love, new line combos that work, more (Mar.6)

Dobber

2016-03-06

Rambling about Cam Talbot, new line combos that are pulling up some player values, Staal scores and more

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It’s far too late in many leagues to bring yourself to forgive Cam Talbot. You drafted him with certain expectations – and perhaps a month from now at a high level he will have met them. But as a fantasy asset he was so horrible for so long, and things were looking very grim, that you had either dumped him or you’d long since beefed up the position and kept him around as depth. Or you were already so far behind in your league that you just stopped caring. But on a personal note it’s gratifying to see him play so well. I knew the Oilers would push him to be their No.1 for the long term, but that certainty was shaken and even destroyed by December.

Talbot’s numbers on December 31: 20 GP, 5-11-2, 2.92 GAA, 0.906 SV%

Heading into the Christmas break, Talbot watched Anders Nilsson start 17 out of 22 games. The fact that Coach McLellan started Talbot for four straight games heading into the New Year gave me a tiny glimmer of hope. Tiny.

On January 17 he played 11 out of 12 games. He was definitely playing better, but he was still giving up third period goals. And it certainly didn’t justify all the starts. Or the fat contract he signed on that day (three years, $4.15 million per). But it’s another example of the commitment the team made when they acquired him. That no matter how terrible he played, they would let him work through it. And now we’re catching a glimpse of what is to come.

Talbot’s numbers since January 1: 25 GP, 10-11-2, 2.23 GAA, 0.928 SV%

Imagine how good he’ll be when the Oilers start winning? He’s won his last four starts and allowed just three goals in that span on 144 shots.

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Patrick Maroon has points in all three games that he has been an Oiler. He’s certainly fitting in on the Taylor Hall line a lot better than Zach Kassian was, in terms of offense.

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The battle of New York made a few poolies pretty happy, given the rare 10-goal outburst in that game. In my one league I have six players on those two teams so I was thrilled. But the offense was spread out, with nobody getting three points. One player who continues to be on fire is Nick Leddy. He has 23 points in his last 28 games. Before that he had nine points in 35 games and was one of the players I was most asked about (i.e. “why is Leddy sucking?”). He’s on pace to finish with 41 points but it’s looking as though he’ll flirt with 50. Either way it will be a career high. His pace during the28 games is for 67 points. But he’ll end the season with 47 or so. Next year I think he’ll be good for the low-50s. He turns 25 in two weeks, so still plenty of upside to reach.

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NYI line combos Sunday:

#1           23.9%    NELSON,BROCK – STROME,RYAN – TAVARES,JOHN

#2           22.8%    CIZIKAS,CASEY – CLUTTERBUCK,CAL – MARTIN,MATT

#3           18.1%    BAILEY,JOSH – NIELSEN,FRANS – OKPOSO,KYLE

#4           17%        KULEMIN,NIKOLAY – LEE,ANDERS – PRINCE,SHANE

 

Shane Prince gets shuffled down the lines, from Tavares to Okposo and now to Anders Lee. Lee is running his own line (I consider Lee as the driver even though it was Nikolai Kulemin taking faceoffs). Lee has six points in his last six games.

Although Jaroslav Halak got the win, it wasn’t the greatest performance. It worries me how fragile he’s being this year in terms of mindset. While Thomas Greiss goes out there and kicks ass, regardless of psychological pressure, Halak seems only to do well if he’s being handed a bunch of starts in a row. Mess with that rhythm and he turtles. As a Halak owner, I hope he rebounds next season because there is no way I’ll trade him this summer. Not with the value I’d get for him today.

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Eric Staal picked up his first two points as a Ranger. Still playing with Oscar Lindberg and Viktor Stalberg. I’d like to see Lindberg switch with Kevin Hayes. Put Hayes on Staal’s wing, and Rick Nash on the other wing when he returns.

Since getting 13 points in 13 games, JT Miller has zero points in eight games (minus-5). He was benched later in Sunday’s game so perhaps that gets him going again. His production and ice time trend tell me that he’s going to surpass 50 points in 2016-17.

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Another team that filled the net with rubber on Sunday was Pittsburgh (six goals). But I’m not sure a lot of fantasy owners cashed in on Bryan Rust and his three points. But the Big 2 had a pair of points each. You may see the Pens continue with the offense because now Evgeni Malkin is waking up (seven points in five games).

Justin Schultz got into his first game as a Penguins and picked up an assist. He was paired with Ian Cole and played nearly six minutes on the power play (and picked up an assist).

Scott Wilson played with Sidney Crosby Sunday. He did score a goal, but you still gotta wonder – will the Crosby-winger experiments ever reach a satisfactory conclusion?

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Impressive: Tom Kostopoulos played his 600th AHL game this weekend. He is the fourth player to play 600 games in the AHL and in the NHL.

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For the first time this season, Tyler Seguin has gone four games without a point (minus-7).

While Antti Niemi has been struggling (2-3-1, 4.39 GAA and 0.858 SV%), Kari Lehtonen is seizing the net at just the right time. It’s only been two-plus games, but he’s been solid. Another four weeks of this and he’ll be ‘the guy’ in the playoffs for Dallas.

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Zack Smith scored Sunday, giving him points in five straight. He has 15 points in his last 20 games. Over the last five games he’s been seeing his ice time hover around 19 minutes per game.

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Yikes. Petr Mrazek really is struggling. Two days after Laidlaw gets called out by readers in the comments about stating that Mrazek fading…Mrazek fades. Right out of Detroit’s game. Just six minutes in he had given up two goals on five shots and got the hook for Jimmy Howard.

The season has been one big letdown for his fantasy owners so far, but at least it's points in four straight now for Gustav Nyquist.

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Three straight wins for Jake Allen and he’s stopped 102 of 109 shots in that span. If Brian Elliott was healthy, Allen wouldn’t have had the chance to win three straight and pad his numbers and secure the top job. The problem is, Allen will get on a roll until that too will end in an injury. Then Elliott will re-secure the top job. And round and round we go. Gee, do you think it’s the coaching?

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Jori Lehtera returned from injury last night and he scored a goal. He’s back on the Tarasenko line, so…time to pluck him back off the wire again.

Interesting – would you call offside here?

 

 

 

8 Comments

  1. Slav 2016-03-07 at 07:31

    I find it funny that you guys are jumping all over Mrazek’s recent play, and make a point to highlight his 2 bad stars against the Hawks. He has had 7 “quality starts” (as you refer to them) out of his last 14 but forget to mention Dubnyk’s recent play….as he has had only 5 quality starts in his last 14 …… Mrazek’s sub quality starts have come against; Chi, Chi, Col, Pit, Bos, Col, TB (all in the top 10 in Goals For sans Colorado) and you compare Dybnyk’s sub quality starts which have come against Stl, Col, Phi, Nyi, Cgy, Wsh, Stl, Nyr, Nyi (with only 3 of those teams in the top 10). I really believe that it’s just been a really tough schedule/stretch for Mrazek recently and have no doubt in my mind that the worst is behind him and that his change of fortune starts this week.

    • Dobber Sports 2016-03-07 at 07:40

      I don’t think it’s funny at all. Or did you not mean “ha ha” funny? ;)

      I think Mrazek is a quality goaltender with a bright future, whereas I don’t think much of Howard (who has more team-based numbers than talent-based). Mrazek is real talent.

      With that in mind, can I “jump all over” a guy when this is how I feel? Or are you being sensitive about your player? We’re mentioning a trend and suggesting what to expect for the short term. Take it with a grain of salt, finish your coffee, and adjust expectations as you see fit

      • Slav 2016-03-07 at 08:09

        All I’m trying to say is that every goalie runs hot and cold (you can add Holtby to the list right now as well). I may or may not be a Detroit fan but as a loyal reader of your articles I’ve seen a write up on Mrazek the past couple of days and just wanted to make a point that to me it doesn’t look like a trend but something that its a mini slump that he needs to work himself out of. We all know goalies are a different breed. Maybe hes not getting laid at home, who knows what’s gotten into him lately lol

        • Dobber Sports 2016-03-07 at 08:41

          That’s fair. If you want to activate him for the next few games that’s your call. But I would recommend holding off until he gets two good games under his belt.

          • Allan Phillips 2016-03-07 at 21:24

            I have to agree that it’s a little harsh on Mrazek. Since the break, he’s had three 5-goal games – one a no-D slugfest with Boston and the other two against Pittsburgh when they were hot a couple weeks ago, then against Chicago, who were unstoppable. Getting pulled was not so much Mrazek the other night, it was to get the team’s head into the game. If you watched it, the 2nd goal was strictly DeKeyser’s fault for screening right in front of Mrazek when there were no Hawks there, and Mrazek bitched him out good! Mrazek is really good, but their overall D can indeed be shaky. Last week they had Dallas, then Chicago twice, and obvious week to sit him. This week is totally different, a clear start: 4 games, Columbus, Winnipeg, the Rangers and Toronto. He’ll probably get the Rangers, who are not high scoring anyway, but will also start at least one of the others. I wouldn’t waste the week sitting him, there are not that many weeks left.

  2. Stu Campaigne 2016-03-07 at 07:45

    This again…cherry-picking stats. How about from now on, we only count Mrazek’s stats in the games he played well so we don’t hurt your feelings?

  3. Jeremy Campbell 2016-03-07 at 09:39

    What’s up with Seguin? I’m surprised to see him fading down the stretch. Malkin and Crosby are really driving up the two poolies in the standings who own those players in my one year hockey pool, I’m waiting for Crosby to miss a few but the tight playoff race means he might play all games this season if he’s able to, no resting for him. Hopefully the Wings finally miss the playoffs!!

  4. Mitchell Ethridge 2016-03-07 at 14:17

    I picked up Talbot as a backup for Quick and Fleury, but I’m still not comfortable putting him in unless I have to. That being said, this last week was nuts! He played great. Quick had two games this week and I still put him in over Talbot, so I probably would have been salty about missing out on those points if I hadn’t of won. Oh well :)

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